Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning title=
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning
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By Dr. Henning Ansorg, M.D., FACP, Health Officer County of Santa Barbara, Department of Public Health

Santa Barbara County is seeing an alarming increase in new case rates for COVID-19, with active cases up 90% over two weeks ago. With the current uptick, it is expected that the daily case rates will continue to increase and cause a new wave of infection similar to the Summer of 2020.

The biggest obstacle to stopping the virus is the proportion of unvaccinated community members. In Santa Barbara County, an unvaccinated person is15 times more likely to get infected and fall ill from COVID-19 compared to if they were vaccinated. The new surge is truly a wave of unvaccinated people falling ill and spreading the virus to others.

Severe COVID-19 can be very dangerous: The sooner you get vaccinated, the sooner you, your friends and family will be protected.

How do I protect myself against variants?

• Get vaccinated if you are 12 years of age or older. The three COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the US offer the best protection against all variants currently spreading here. They have proven to be very safe and effective. If you have concerns or questions about COVID-19 vaccines, talk with your doctor. If you are already vaccinated, encourage your family, friends, and neighbors to get vaccinated.

Wear a mask. Masks remain the most powerful tool to protect yourself from infection and others if you were unknowingly spreading the virus before developing symptoms. Make sure you wear a well-fitting mask that covers both your mouth and nose in public indoor settings.  Because the Delta variant is capable to occasionally infect vaccinated people, we  strongly recommend that fully vaccinated persons also wear masks indoors in public places .

Learn more about masks at

• Wash your hands and/or use hand sanitizer often - especially after being in public spaces where surfaces are touched by many people.

How do I get a COVID-19 vaccine?

Vaccines are available across Santa Barbara County and free to everyone, regardless of immigration status. Many vaccination sites take walk-ins, or you can choose to make an appointment.

• Visit to find a location near you.

• Visit for additional locations

• Information is also available in many languages 24/7 by calling 2-1-1.

• TEXT: GETVAX (438829) for English or VACUNA (822862) for Spanish

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MarcelK Jul 26, 2021 10:00 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

6:35 PM As I have noted several times, CSF doesn't understand the difference between "29% of X are Y" and "29% of Y are X" and apparently never will, because of the characteristic you point out.

MarcelK Jul 26, 2021 09:58 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

"with an small net decrease in unvaccinated cases (-1.9%) and a rather large increase in fully vaccinated cases (+7.5%)." -- for the thousandth time: as percentage of the population that has been vaccinated grows, the percentage of cases that are vaccinated will grow ... with the absolute number of cases dropping. "MY CONCLUSIONS" -- are worthless because they inferences based on fundamental failures of logic.

a-1627350399 Jul 26, 2021 06:46 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

If you read the PHE report linked to, from which the FUDdy conclusions are being made by our amateur epidemiologist, you will see the following (direct quotes):

"The specialist technical briefings contain early data and analysis on emerging variants and findings have a high level of uncertainty."

"Note case fatality rates are not comparable across variants"

"Hospitalisation data are subject to reporting delays as hospitals typically submit data once a month, although some may provide daily updates. The data show only cases who have been hospitalised and not those who are currently in hospital with COVID-19. As such, it is not appropriate for use for surveillance of those currently hospitalised with COVID-19. In addition, the data will not show cases who were directly admitted as inpatients without presenting to emergency care."

a-1627349720 Jul 26, 2021 06:35 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Funny. Your correct/incorrect ratio so far is embarrassingly tiny.

But, as someone who concluded on June 25, at 11:39 PM, from a sample size of 42 people, that in the UK, "TWENTY NINE PERCENT OF FULLY VACCINATED PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE DELTA VARIANT!", you clearly lack the mathematical and reasoning skills necessary to make cogent comments on the subject of epidemiology.

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 26, 2021 05:16 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

No amount of peer-review can change the fact that the data is really, really old, sadly inaccurate and generally worthless by the time the study was published. The COVID landscape is changing very quickly, as evidenced by the fact that the masking mandates are returning only weeks after they were lifted. Also, how can authors refute 2 months of data that was not available to them at the time? Let's look at all of this in a few months, where I'll be proven correct---yet again!

GeneralTree Jul 26, 2021 04:45 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Your conclusions regarding the vaccinated resulting in the number of Covid deaths is directly refuted by the authors of the study. Yet you keep propagating false information.

SBgal74 Jul 26, 2021 08:59 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Chem….This is absolutely a inappropriate comparison. What you FAIL to mention here is that the pillar of the UK vaccine program has been the Astra Zeneca shot which has been shown to be rather ineffective at preventing infection due to the Delta variant. The US has relied heavily on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines which you know are completely different and thus far have shown to be holding up against Delta. You can throw out all the statistics you want, but Im guessing you’re smart enough to know better than to compare apples to oranges? Or perhaps you think others are so dumb not to see through this attempt to conflate two completely different situations??

Bene Jul 26, 2021 01:36 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Chem, it will be a very interesting next few months to see how this all plays out, don't you think? Since vaccines have been available such a relatively short time I think we may have some interesting new info with upcoming studies and data. Obviously in your line of work you are not anti-vax, but I gather you are not a fan of mRNA vaccines in general? May I ask what you think of the J & J as far as safety for those with auto immune problems, and efficacy against Delta?

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 25, 2021 11:08 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Anyone who opens the PHE link I supplied and looks at the UK data for themselves, including the July 23, 2021 technical briefing 19, will see the following:

Research and analysis
Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: technical briefings
Technical briefing documents on novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.

From: Public Health England
Published 21 December 2020
Last updated 23 July 2021 — See all updates

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: technical briefing 19

a-1627275744 Jul 25, 2021 10:02 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Just amateur FUD, given that you're not qualified to do a professional analysis of the data. And your link in the previous post was from December of 2020.

a-1627256870 Jul 25, 2021 04:47 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

They don't have J&J yet, and just approved Moderna, so the big players are Pfizer and AstraZeneca:

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 25, 2021 03:33 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

There are two main problems with the data in the NEJM paper. First, it’s incredibly old, using data only up to the middle of May (see Methods section of NEJM paper). The data I’m using from PHE is through July 21 (top of page 5, technical briefing 19), which includes 2 more months of data that is not in the NEJM paper. Second, data used in the NEJM paper was acknowledged as less accurate by PHE: “Targets were updated in mid-May 2021 to prioritise accurate identification of Delta over Alpha.” (bottom of page 54, technical briefing 19). Sorry, but the data in that NEJM paper is just really old and inaccurate. This why it pays to do your own research and stay on top of the current data.

dw2000 Jul 25, 2021 03:10 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Also, in the UK, many people are receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine and Janssen vaccines which (while still good as far as vaccines go) are not as effective as Pfizer and Moderna. Id be curious to learn how many of the fully vaccinated that are getting sick have received AstraZenaca or Jannsen

a-1627189078 Jul 24, 2021 09:57 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

It helps to have accurate data, without amateur analysis and conclusions.

The vaccines remain effective against the delta variant in the UK.

Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.
Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose. This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations. (Funded by Public Health England.)"

a-1627188352 Jul 24, 2021 09:45 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Dok Elmer FUD returns with more Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Needless to say, the vaccines are performing well in the UK.

EastBeach Jul 24, 2021 02:04 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Masks are optional at my workplace for those who can provide proof of vaccination. But I continue to wear a mask because (1) someone in our office just got a "break-through" infection, and (2) I was at Albertsons when someone in line said he was from Florida and that "they don't do masks or shots". In the parking lot I noticed his large RV had Florida plates. A tourist vector.

ChillinGrillin Jul 24, 2021 01:10 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Frankly myself and many others are done with COVID. We masked for over a year, barely went out, and got the vaccine ASAP. If some morons still can't take it seriously after over a year and think it's their "freedom" to get seriously ill and spread it to like-minded idiots, be my guest.

Channelfog Jul 24, 2021 10:08 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

BABYCAKES- Yes, the name calling and general abusive tone reeks of Mob Rule, something the founding fathers feared greatly. A deeep breath of fresh air is the best suggestion I've heard yet! I have a 24" diameter concrete drainage culvert to set and it is a fine day to do it.

Channelfog Jul 25, 2021 04:47 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

SBOBS- I do understand the Founding Fathers concern for Mob Rule and that they and the population at large were very, independent individuals. They united for civil projects and defense, but were otherwise extremely individual and competitive. Yes, Americans are some of the most selfish and entitled people ever to tread upon Earth and so socialist ideas don't go over well. This is why we do not have single payer health care, a state utility grid that is maintained (rather than paying bonuses) and quality, free university. All the afore mentioned yield a more robust, healthy society yet are exceedingly unlikely due to selfishness. That is what I call Anti-American.

a-1627157322 Jul 24, 2021 01:08 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Loose, If we had not had a mandate decades ago we would still be plagued by Small Pox and Polio as we were when I was a child. The luddites among us seem not to have learned from history.

LooseCannon Jul 24, 2021 11:26 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Groan.... Correction: /// Everything is headed in the direction of a UNIVERSAL VACCINE MANDATE. /// (I wish we could edit ourselves. Signing out now. Fed up with this ongoing nonsense.)

LooseCannon Jul 24, 2021 11:24 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

BABYCAKES: I don't need to wear a mask to "protect" myself. After two Pfizer shots, I am fully protected. Instead of a universal mask mandate (which is contrary to CDC recommendations), we need to shift the focus to a UNIVERSAL VACCINE MANDATE. Macron is doing it in France, Germany is following. Here in the US, San Francisco and Pasadena are making steps in that direction by requiring city workers to get vaccinated, and in New York, De Blasio is heading in that direction, too. Locally, UCSB is going it. Private businesses need to step up, too, demand that their employees get the shot or submit to regular intrusive testing, and require customers to show proof of vaccination in order to receive goods and services. The mask mandate and hygiene theater approach has failed. Everything is headed in the direction of a UNIVERSAL MASK MANDATE. The sooner we get there, the better.

SantaBarbaraObserver Jul 24, 2021 10:38 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

The arrogance in assuming that you know or understand what the Founding Father's wanted is only matched by the arrogance and ignorance in the rest of this reply. Selfishness is Anti-American. Acting in your own interest over the needs of the country is the polar opposite of Patriotic.

LooseCannon Jul 24, 2021 10:34 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

"Mask up if that is what is best for your situation."

BABYCAKES: The problem is, for months on end, I didn't have a choice, did I? And I have a sneaking suspicion that the mask mandate will be re-imposed on Monday. I'm fully vaccinated, at no risk to myself or anyone else. I shouldn't have to mask up because some people are unvaccinated, stupid, and irresponsible.

Babycakes Jul 24, 2021 09:50 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

What other folks do or don't do is out of your control, so stop insisting on controlling them. Focus on yourself rather than crying for attention on this forum. Attempting to shame someone to agree with you is wrong, and only verifies your status as an obnoxious bully. This whole "agree with me or else" approach simply isn't working, so let people live and die as they choose. Get offline and enjoy your life as YOU see fit and treat yourself to some fresh air.

a-1627144883 Jul 24, 2021 09:41 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

This past week I had conversations with two different medical professionals, one a SB nurse and one an LA doctor. Both said the same thing that all of their recent hospitalized Covid patients were UNVACCINATED. The science and facts are out there but there are apparently too many ignorant people clinging to false ideas.

dw2000 Jul 24, 2021 09:45 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Its sad our health care professionals have worked to exhaustion over the the last year and when they should be getting some reprieve the hospitals are filling up again due to stupidity. They deserve better.

Channelfog Jul 24, 2021 06:08 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Vaccinated people contract covid too and they too shed virus whether asymptomatic or not. There are at least 10 strains of covid worldwide so far, making masking prudent. Misinformation is everywhere, including Bidens recent vaccine remarks. Does he own J&J stock? J&J made $2.5 Billion on vax so far.


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