Jerry Roberts
This opinion article is posted in partnership with Newsmakers with Jerry Roberts
To the surprise of no one, Donald Trump won the Republican Iowa Caucuses on Monday night, officially opening a presidential primary campaign expected to progress, swiftly and decisively, to a rerun of 2020’s general election race: Trump vs. Biden, The Sequel.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Hailey finished far behind, in second and third, a fatuous and unavailing political spectacle, since the pair of alleged Trump challengers both pursued the novel strategy of barely criticizing, let alone attacking, the prohibitive front-runner against whom they purportedly are running.
Terrified of offending Trump’s voters, with the cult-like devotion they bestow upon their leader, DeSantis and Hailey in Iowa instead performed a kind of campaign ape dance, assailing each other while ignoring the ferocious 800-pound gorilla who dominates the primary landscape.
The next act of political kabuki is the January 23 New Hampshire primary, as the campaign moves, apparently inexorably, towards a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 general election.
Here is a look at three key factors that shape that crucial and foreboding contest.
The election nobody wants
It seems only an exogenous event – say, one too many cheeseburgers, or a geezer trip-and-fall, or a killer asteroid, maybe – can prevent the 2024 presidential election from manifesting as an ominous replay of 2020.
It is hard to overstate the aversion most people feel about this scenario.
Poll after poll after poll has shown what a recent, representative example reveals: Fewer than one-in-four (24 percent) of those surveyed in a November AP-NORC Center poll said Biden should seek re-election, while fewer than one-in-three (30 percent) said Trump should seek a return to the White House, results aligned with an NBC News poll taken six months before.
So unhappy are Americans with the match-up that, when CNN polltakers offered this mano-a-mano choice in a survey last summer, 31 percent of those interviewed simply refused to express support for either candidate.
Despite widespread misgivings, however, Monday’s authoritative RealClearPolitics polling average report showed Trump leading among Republican voters nationally with 61.4 percent, far ahead of Haley (12 percent) and DeSantis (10.7 percent); among Democrats, Biden similarly dominates, with 69.8 percent, over rivals (check notes) Marianne Williamson (7.9 percent) and a Minnesota congressman named Dean Phillips (3.2 percent), whose smiling face was believed last seen on a milk carton.
So here we are.
State of play
For much of American history, voters have treated presidential re-election bids as up-or-down votes on an incumbent’s first term, basing their decision in large part on the state of the economy – think President Jimmy Carter swept from office by Ronald Reagan in 1980 – or whether they thought things were moving in the right or wrong direction – viz. President Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984.
In this century, however, unpopular chief executives twice have won second terms by relying on negative campaigning to frame the race, not as a referendum on their own performance, but as a choice between their administration and the specter of a dangerous challenger; thus George W. Bush’s 2004 “swiftboating” victory over Democratic challenger John Kerry, and Barack Obama’s successful portrayal of GOP foe Mitt Romney as an avaricious plutocrat in 2012.
Biden, who began 2024 as among the least popular incumbents in history, throughout his long career often has wielded a campaign mantra – “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the Alternative” – on which he will have to rely heavily in framing 2024 as a choice election, rather than a plebiscite on his handling of the presidency.
A just-out ABC News poll reports that only 33 percent of adults approve of his performance in office, compared to 58 percent who disapprove — worse than Trump’s lowest point as president (36 percent) and the worst rating for an incumbent since Bush in 2008 and the Great Recession.
The good news for Biden is that voters credit him for being more honest than Trump – by 41-to-26 percent; the bad news is that pervasive concerns about the 81-year-old president’s age led voters to favor the 77-year-old Trump, in judging who “has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president” – by 47-to-28 percent.
Worse for Biden, voters continue to pan his handling of the economy, disapproving by a 31-to-56 ratio, an apparent reflection of sustained high prices for groceries, gas, and other essentials; it’s worth noting that his numbers on the issue have improved slightly since a previous ABC poll in September, as macroeconomic data show inflation still declining from its high in 2022, and all other economic indicators strong.
Add it up, and Trump holds a tiny lead over the president in national popular polls: 45.8-to-44.7 as of today, according to the RealClear average, despite voters’ negative opinion of the Republican and rejection of him four years ago.
For Democrats, that’s worse than it looks on the surface.
As every school child knows, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote in five of the six elections in this century — but only captured the White House three times — because of the Republican’s structural advantage in the Electoral College; Democrats typically need to prevail by three or four percent in the popular vote to secure an Electoral College victory.
Bottom line: the U.S. is headed for another white-knuckle election, with the outcome decided by a few hundred thousand votes across the half-dozen or so states that remain true toss-ups, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A would-be strongman
In the Before Times – back before Trump descended his golden escalator to announce his candidacy in 2015 – a candidate facing 91 felony counts in four different cases, who accepted money from foreign governments for his personal business while in office, who’s been denounced by multipleformer cabinet members and aides who worked with him up close, and who, oh yeah, ended the nation’s previously unbroken streak of peaceful transfers of power, on January 6, 2021, would not have been viewed as qualified to manage a Popeye’s franchise, let alone fit for the highest office in the land.
But, hey, that was then.
In 2024, Trump is moving even further away from the traditional norms of American politics: of course, he not only continues to claim, endlessly and falsely, that Biden and the Democrats stole the 2020 election, but also now promises to govern in a second term as a very un-American strongman, using the power of the government to imprison political enemies and the military to put down domestic dissent, while ending the traditional independence of the U.S. Justice Department and sacking tens of thousands of civil service public employees in favor of people loyal only to him.
And, in callbacks to 1930s-era fascist rhetoric, he’s saying the quiet part out loud.
“We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections,” Trump said in a Veterans Day speech. “They’ll do anything, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and to destroy the American Dream.”
“The threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous and grave than the threat from within,” he added, saying his political enemies pose a greater threat than “Russia, China, North Korea.”
It’s for such foreboding reasons that political scientists already have characterized 2024 as “the most important election since 1860.”
Former Republican House member Liz Cheney, daughter of ex-Vice-President Dick Cheney, who was a Before Times conservative icon, saw her political career wrecked as she became a GOP pariah, after voting to impeach Trump over Jan. 6, 2021, and then leading the congressional investigation into his role in the violence.
Further reading
Doug Sosnik is a 67-year old political strategist who served in the Clinton White House, whose occasional, disinterested, big picture political memos are must-reading in Washington. This one, on how education has become the most critical dividing line in American politics, is a salient and dispassionate guide to the 2024 political landscape.
Op-Ed’s are written by community members, not representatives of edhat. The views and opinions expressed in Op-Ed articles are those of the author’s.
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Biden would win “a plebiscite on his handling of the presidency” easily if the media didn’t do such a terrible job of reporting this administration’s achievements. Instead they play bothsidesism and harp on his age, like this article.
If Obama did just one of the 91 felonies Trump has done, the republicans would have lost their minds and excoriated him. But since this is “their guy” somehow evidence and facts are meaningless.
There was no insurrection… it was just emotions of people with mental health issues that saw it that way. I know. I was there.
SOCAL LOCAL – so the entire world, aside from you and some fringe conservatives, have “mental health issues?” Yeah, no.
Why were you there? What was your purpose? Did you break in as well with the other traitors?
Wow. SL is not only delusional, but favors criminality over civilization.
This is serious?
As broadly as I read, I find it hard to accept statements like this. Guess I’m still naive.
Everyone now knows to completely discount anything you say about anything. Congratulations.
Anyone who participated in the Jan 6 insurrection is despicable treasonous garbage.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/12/24/january-6-video-capitol-riot-schneider-ath-vpx.cnn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlcdaAx5hu8
Gross. What an awful choice. Of course, there’s really only one option if we wish to remain freedom and equality loving nation. How has it come to this again?
glad you recognize that Trump is only way out…
?? Trump is on his way out, yes. I agree!
Not if you have that attitude about the alternative!
In regard to the last sentence of this op-ed, recent reports state that college-educated Republicans are supporting trump in larger numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/college-educated-republicans-learned-love-124616051.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/college-educated-republicans-once-appeared-ready-to-move-on-from-trump-theyre-now-solidly-behind-his-2024-campaign/ar-AA1mXIH5
The ones who just barely passed, no doubt.
It’s a horror that we fear his actually winning.
Also, who downvotes a factual post? Typical though.
That’s terrifying. Remember though, a college degree doesn’t guarantee the recipient is a decent person.
A college degree does not guarantee intelligence either.
We are cooked.
Jesus Christ. Just vote your conscience and live with it. What a bunch of wankers.
How nice for you that you can be so blase as to say “live with it” when there are truly dangerous, sometimes life-threatening policies at stake for all Americans, from health care to climate change to tax policy and national priorities, including America’s place in the world and relationships with allies.
Not to mention the threat to the moral and philosophical underpinnings of the country.
I breath a sigh of relief that I live in California, which will continue to be broad-minded and live and let live.
Better than spending all your time on a website crying about things you can’t control. Yes?
Still can’t thread a reply that a third grader could manage.
Anon – he truly is something else, ain’t he?
I see it as Career Politician VS Capitalism. Capitalism always wins in the end.
Because Americans have been deluded into think capitalism supports everyone.
It supports anyone with ambition and a work ethic. Your right. The slugs do not do well.
“anyone with ambition and a work ethic” as if it were that simple.
It does.
Only in delusional dreams.
Of the people born on second base who think they’ve hit a triple.
This next election will be a Sh*tShow. I don’t think we will get out of mess unscathed…With the war going, it could also interrupt the election.
Timothy – Absolutely. One is already sowing the seeds of another “stolen” election. The other is just, well, the other. It’s such a shame. Presidential elections are usually exciting, but this one I’m dreading. America deserves better choices.
You’re undermining the chance of beating tRump with every post like this that states that the Democrat candidate is something like “just the other.”
The Democrat candidate is the champion of democracy. He is the alternative to incompetence, but nowadays the alternative to experienced, educated, vengeful anti-democracy. We must fight the non-democrat.
There is no choice beyond the opponent of Trump.
I meant, there is no reasonable choice but the opponent of trump, whoever it may be.
Timothy – Agreed. The candidates are lacking and both sides are prone to underhanded measures to try and negate the opponents advantages.
It will be very interesting what happens with the states trying to keep Donald after the ballots.
If anyone thinks what happened on 01/06 was bad then wait till hundreds of thousands of people (maybe even “Millions”) can’t vote for their preferred candidate
TimothyAndrew, can you clarify what you mean by “interrupt the election”?
Do you mean stop activity at polling sites? Stop activity before or after that point?
TIA
I sure would like to hear from Timothy, clarifying this statement of his:
“With the war going, it could also interrupt the election.”
This false LEFT/RIGHT choice will ruin us…Lets try Peace and Freedom
The party? Peace & Freedom? I agree, it’s a nice fantasy.
But all that matters is defeating trump.
i’ve left the country for four years in the past due to my personal disagreement with the leadership and i have no issues doing that again. just like the old south park cartoon once said, you either get a turd sandwich or a shyte burger. enjoy!
K9 Karma, you also said you fought or were support staff in Ukraine since the war started. Care to elucidate?
Great that you left rather than stay and fight and protest. But you also walk your Malinois dog(s) regularly on the beach and work for SB City College and know lots of cops and security personnel. Were you really gone for 4 years, presumably during trump’s first term?
Jerry Roberts should not be so quick to pander to bigotry, considering his age especially. Use of the word “geezer” to describe President Biden may tickle the palate of younger folks an Trump (no less a “geezer” one notes) but is a cheap shot at best. Biden has actually accomplished remarkable things in his 3 years despite a unprecedented (at least since the Civil War) national divide. I would have preferred that the Dem’s (of which I am not a member) opened their nomination process but considering the choices that seem likely we cannot ever vote for the Mussolini of Manhatten!
Another disingenuous writer suffering TDS in a echo chamber where all say the same thing and enforce each other.
Here is THE TRUTH. first of all…policies!!!
Immigration. Trumps stay in Mexico policy was sane and sober ,much needed and worked perfectly. Asylum seekers had to apply AND stay on the Mexico side of the border until their court date. Instead, now we have millions being shipped all over the country, sucking up US cities taxes. Explain how Bidens policy of reversing anything Trump did right or wrong, is working?
Inflation due to Biden war on domestic energy production. Everything is affected. Gas and the price of delivery alone is passed on to the consumer. The ridiculous war on the combustion engines is killing the consumer with the price of cars. EV’S are not wanted by the market place. Too expensive to buy. Too expensive to insure. Too long to charge and no supporting infrastructure across the US. All forms should be available and let the consumer decide. NOT force out the combustion engine and cheap energy (gas and oil) People back east monthly heating oil bill has gone up over 300% These are poor and lower working class people who cannot afford it.
WARS. Not one new war started under Trump. Biden has started two wars.
Ukraine . Obama /Biden helped overthrow the democratically elected Pres of Ukraine in 2014. A western leaning puppet put in his place. The Russian speaking people in the Eastern provinces, were being put upon by the ne wGovernment. When they pressed for autonomy, they were shelled to the tune of 14,000 dead. Then the Biden admin sent Lloyd Austin to ex soviet Georgia, to offer NATO membership. that was Feb 2021. Biden also was pushing NATO membership for Ukraine. This threatens Russian national security, but Blinken dismissed Russias concerns. Had Russia attempted to put bases in Mexico with Mexico’s blessing, what would the US do? Invade Mexico! Biden refused to stop this provocation. Even when many told him it could lead to a Russia-Ukraine war.
Iran. Trumps oil sanctions had Iran buried financially. They could not finance their proxies. Biden comes in and gives Iran 6 billion dollars of frozen assets and then 6 billion dollars in ransom money. He stops enforcing sanctions and Iran makes 70 billion in oil sales! Then of corse, they start financing Hamas and Hezzbolah and we have a war with Israel. Constant appeasment of Iran including after their attacking our bases in Iraq and Syria 120 times. STILL no meaningful reprisal.
Not one terrorist attack on US soil in all 4 years of Trump. 1.9% inflation under Trump . Great unemployment numbers across all ethnicities and classes. The economy was on fire prior to Covid. ETCETC
There is no comparison in successful results in just about every issue when it comes to the two Presidencies.
Trump will crush Biden in 2024. He will do so because he is the competent choice. He will do so with a large vote from Blacks and Latinos who Biden has taken for granted.
No one wanted this far left progressive agenda or they would have chosen Bernie Sanders. Bidens is finished.
WP:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/13/trump-falsely-claims-no-terrorist-attacks-no-wars-during-his-presidency/
said ‘no NEW wars STARTED on Trumps watch.
Correlation vs causation. It’s an important distinction.
Another brainwashed fool (maybe it wasn’t pre-shrunk) who believes the slop on con social media.
This is the sort of ignorant dishonest garbage I expect from this right wing source.
There’s just so much wrong here that I’m overcome with exhaustion at the thought of countering it. lol
The American legislature needs to change immigration law. They also need to fund immigration courts that have a backlog of hundreds of thousands of cases.
Biden didn’t start any wars. Also, read history, like Maidan uprising and Maiden Uprising.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
Trump’s withdrawal from JCPOA was a huge mistake.
etc. Like I said, I’m not up to it.
Excuse my typo repeating “Maidan uprising.” Wish we could edit posts.
It seems to me an unproductive use of one’s time to complain about how bad the candidates are. Think about the cumulative amount of time the public at large spends watching TV coverage and reading social media in regards to this. Massive. But yes, everyone has a right to do whatever they want with their time, of course…including spending all day everyday on Edhat if they choose.
“spends watching TV coverage and reading social media” to become more informed about issues of their choosing. Yeah, so unproductive……
Good think no one here is doing more than typing a few words to express displeasure with our choices. The hyperbolic and wildly ignorant and exaggerated world you live in must be exhausting.
It’s unproductive to use one’s time to complain about how other people use their time.
Come on, you literally do exactly what you complain about others doing. You whine about Newsom, you complain about other things, which, by the way, is totally fine. Your choice.
However, you whining about OTHER people doing exactly what YOU do is laughable–as if you don’t do it yourself. You are probably in the top ten posters on Edhat by activity. I guarantee that very few of your posts are “productive” or enlightening for anyone.
And, no, I’m not claiming in any way that my posts have any value at all, I’m not going to try and claim that I occupy a higher standard than you or anyone else on that front.
I”m here for two reasons; to entertain MYSELF and to troll and trigger people that get in my crosshairs.
Basic, next time you react to Alex, please remember that he has often stated his role here.
I don’t own a television and I read several national and UK international newspapers — I only get through one a day so I switch off. And I read the New Yorker. It’s a productive use of my time. I can only do so because I’m retired; it takes a lot of time to be broadly read.
Joe Biden has been an excellent President. He inherited a mess, including a military leadership that stood by while a mob directed by the former loser President attacked the capitol in an attempted coup. His first years of leadership included billions for much needed infrastructure and climate change mitigation programs. He accurately described the dangers of fascists elements in the U.S. directed by the former President. Ageism? The two candidates are a few years apart. The wealthy have their candidate and use their media to promote Republicans at all levels. Republicans and their hand picked courts have overturned 50 years of established law to take away the right of women to make choices for their own reproductive medical care.
Vote. Turn off the TV when the former President or his cronies come on. If you want, participate in supporting candidates.
Republicans are going to lose big in this election.
Title is way too misleading… it is. “Pedophile vs. Businessman” Trump as President is the best thing that could happen to Santa Barbara, lest you become a Sanctuary City… do you really want 100k illegals in the streets, parks and schools?
When was Biden convicted of any pedophilia related crimes? Oh yeah, you’re lying.
100K illegals in SB? Do you have any idea how impossible that is, physically I mean?
Must be terrifying living in such fear and paranoia. Take a break sometime!
The fantasy world of the cons is a fearful place, but it has room for all sorts of delusional happenings.
Oh, dude, a real live insurrectionist in our midst. Were you there with that chick from SYV that was arrested?
FBI coming for you too?
LOLZ at the traitor.
Good gods, SoCal, you ARE serious…
The undocumented are better people and make better Americans than any Trump supporter … the latter are stupid ignorant immature racist sociopaths.
Donald Trump is a lifelong grifter, con man, and criminal, a narcissistic sociopath with no moral compass who is planning on instituting fascism if elected, way beyond his treasonous actions in his first Putin-enabled White House occupancy. His latest message on Truth Social is a video of ex-mobster hitman-turned rat Sammy the Bull saying that Trump is a “legitimate man”. Trump warned two federal judges that they should listen to this mobster. No intelligent or reasonable person could think that Trump should be President of the U.S.
Don’t forget that trump was deemed guilty of sexual assault in a court of law.
Then found guilty of smearing the victim and is currently on trial for continued smearing of the same victim. He’s a disgusting misogynistic criminal.
From the article:
“For much of American history, voters have treated presidential re-election bids as up-or-down votes on an incumbent’s first term, basing their decision in large part on the state of the economy…”
From Saturday’s news:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/s-p-500-closes-at-record-high-for-first-time-in-two-years/ar-BB1gXLqy
You KNOW the trumpeting we’d hear about this from the White House if Trump was prez!
Yet Americans think the economy is bad.
That is changing:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-third-quarter-economic-growth-revised-up-52-2023-11-29/
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-the-us-economy-is-doing-right-now-2024-explainer-rcna134724
“American consumers haven’t felt this good about the direction of the economy in years.
That may signal the end of what some had come to call a “vibes-cession,” where, despite decades-low unemployment and falling inflation, something still felt a bit off about the economy.
First, the monthly University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumers’ sentiment jumped 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021 — with the cumulative two-month gain of 29% figuring as the largest-consecutive increase since 1991, when a recession was ending.”