Santa Barbara’s Weather Will Resemble Glendale by 2080

By Lauren Bray, edhat staff

A new scientific study reports Santa Barbara’s climate in 2080 will feel most like today’s climate near Glendale, California.

This is an estimate based on a new study in Nature Communications that finds modern analogs for what the climates of 540 North American cities will look like in about 60 years. On average, the closest analog for the 2080 climate for each city was about 528 miles away, and mostly to the south.

The prediction for Santa Barbara is that it will be 4.9°F (2.7°C) warmer and 78.7% wetter than a summer, just like Glendale. To compare, Santa Maria’s climate will be most like Rodolfo Sánchez Taboada, Mexico as its 3.8°F (2.1°C) warmer and 38.5% drier than winter in Santa Maria currently.

For other areas of California, Paso Robles will feel like Fontana, California; Monterey will more closely resemble Villa del Prado 2da Sección, Mexico; San Franciso will be akin to Palos Verdes Estates; and Los Angeles will be like Las Palmas, Mexico. To compare the rest of the United States, New York City will have a climate much like Lake Shore, Maryland. Seattle will look more like Portland and D.C. will be like Paragould, Arkansas. An interactive map to search all cities is found here.

Matt Fitzpatrick, an ecologist at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and one of the two authors on the study, hopes this model will help people see how climate change will impact all of us. “I kept constantly hearing in the media about a 3°C increase in mean global temperature, or about the Paris Climate According keeping the change to 1.5°C. That just never resonated with me,” he said in an interview with Popular Science.

Overall, the majority of the California coast starts to look further south into Mexico, while most of the East Coast will resemble the Southern U.S. The study points to the big difference emissions makes in our climate as every city will have a significant change. 

Data from Fitzpatrick & Dunn, Nature Communications, 2018 / Infographic by Sara Chodosh

Perhaps the most frightening figure is some of these numbers are unable to compare to any weather that currently exists. While this study focuses on the western hemisphere above the equator, the researchers used a mathematical equation to determine the closest city above the equator. “Had we looked globally we may have found a closer analog in India or Africa,” Fitzpatrick says. “But once you do that, people aren’t gonna know what some town in India feels like,” reports Popular Science

Fitzpatrick also notes that his grandchildren are unlikely to recognize the climate he lives in today, but hopes his work can help people realize the impact of that change and give them a “wow moment” to recognize the seriousness of this issue.


Written by lauren

Lauren is the Publisher of She enjoys short walks on the beach, interesting facts about bees, and any kind of homemade cookie.

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  1. So are they signing on to global warming now? In the 80’s it was global cooling. Lately, climate “change.” Jerry brown said we wouldn’t have anymore Sierra snowpack but it’s been two record snowpack years since then. Sounds like Canada is downright undervalued. Vancouver the new San Francisco? Will the ocean be 70? That would be nice. Probably more rain too.

  2. This is neither science nor junk science, yet. It’s a hypothesis based on a model. The science part comes 60 years from now when the hypothesis can be challenged by Santa Barbara’s future weather data. When 2080 rolls around we’ll know if it’s a junky GIGO thing or if the author was brilliant enough to choose all the inputs that impact all the weather in all the cities in the country.

  3. It’s junk science. The General Circulation Models used to make these forecasts have numerous fatal flaws built into their assumptions. They are also missing the effects of significant independent variables, their numerical stability is questionable, their outputs deviate from reality in statistically significant ways- for example it’s been shown that the models predict that earth’s heat release decreases with surface temperature which is exactly the opposite of what actual satellite measurements show. Finally the people making these predictions are funded by the same politicians who use our tax money to increase their control over our lives- a clear conflict of interest. This is Big Government funding Junk Science.

  4. From, here are the current “Top 10” climate falsehoods pushed by the denial crowd. You can bet they’ll be trotted out in this thread. A total of 197 myths trotted out by the climate shills are debunked on the site.
    Climate MythvsWhat the Science Says
    1″Climate’s changed before”Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.
    2″It’s the sun”In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions
    3″It’s not bad”Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health & environment far outweigh any positives.
    4″There is no consensus”97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.
    5″It’s cooling”The last decade 2000-2009 was the hottest on record.
    6″Models are unreliable”Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.
    7″Temp record is unreliable”The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites.
    8″Animals and plants can adapt”Global warming will cause mass extinctions of species that cannot adapt on short time scales.
    9″It hasn’t warmed since 1998″Every part of the Earth’s climate system has continued warming since 1998, with 2015 shattering temperature records.
    10″Antarctica is gaining ice”Satellites measure Antarctica losing land ice at an accelerating rate.

  5. Lots of ignorance on display here.
    It will get warmer with all of the attendant consequences, rising sea levels more extreme weather events and so on. The military and most major corporations accept that fact. A belief in the absence of data is simply denial. The evidence cited in the second comment says it all. I urge the deniers to understand what it implies.

  6. Whether or not this proves to be true in 60 years, there are two truisms that we can state with certainty now. These are: 1. Climate (long term) and weather (short term) are two very different things and this conflates those. 2. Anyone predicting something, such as exact temperatures to the 10th of a degree 60 years from now, is bound to be wrong. It’s an interesting analysis of what MAY come about but nothing more than that.

  7. In 80 years, weather like Glendale, a right-hand point break from Eucalyptus Hill to Montecito St. (on a good day, all the way to Haley), and house prices that have dropped-dropped-dropped (a 4/3 Upper Eastside beachfront for $40k!!). Who could possibly be against that? Farmer’s market will have to be moved to Gibraltar Rd. Too many people here anyway….looking forward to the day….thanks for the tip.

  8. Yes, just an opinion, there are no facts any more. Trumpism has triumphed. Is there anyone under 30 that is arguing against the accepted fact of climate change? They are the ones who will suffer if the deniers are wrong.

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