No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

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By an edhat reader

Does anyone else find it interesting that Montecito had mandatory evacuations yesterday for a complete non-event and now, it is predicted that we will have 4-5 hours of thunderstorms Early Thursday morning and we have not heard a peep from the County OEM? Isn't this storm situation stacking up like when we got hit on 1/9/18 ?? Thunderstorm activity can change rapidly and with 4-5 hours of activity predicted, isn't this a pretty high risk situation that they are ignoring?

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a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 08:01 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Roadway flooding per CHP: 101/Evans Santa Barbara. 7:46a.m. AND TRAFFIC HAZARD #192/AshleyRd.S.B. - Water across lanes, storm drain clogged poss.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:44 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Well, either the media (weather channels are owned by them) are lying for click bait and view or they just can't predict anything anymore. Seems like in the days of old, farmers especially, were able to better predict weather by studying patterns and even animal behavior than we are now with all this technology. I also recall during the 80s/90s we had much better "predictions" than now. What's going on?

Shasta Guy Jan 17, 2019 08:03 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

I love that site. It also shows that all our reservoirs are rising with the runoff now. Hopefully we’re turning the corner of busting the drought in our area.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:34 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Some people are really ridiculous. Here's an idea - if you are afraid of a fire, or debris flow, don't live somewhere where that could happen. If you are worried about hurricanes, don't live somewhere that could happen. If you are worried about tornadoes, don't keep living in tornado country. Get it? You can't just do what you want, live where you want, and then cry when nature does it's thing.

Flicka Jan 17, 2019 07:31 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

To complainers about the local warning system; they are doing their best with the information they have. If anyone wants notice of an absolute exact prediction of what will happen with the weather I suggest going to church and asking God.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:45 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

FLICKA either that or the media is just lying and creating hysteria for viewership. That's possible. I've never seen such inaccurate reporting and considering all the satellites and tech we have, there is just no other explanation.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:25 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

CHP: Middle Rd / Mesa Rd - Santa Barbara. 7:19 AM. VEH - TALLER VEH COULD PULL IT DOWN. 7:18 AM. LINES DOWN - HANGING ACROSS LNS - CAUGHT ON RPS'. 7:18 AM. Traffic Hazard.

TWOSCOOPS Jan 17, 2019 07:15 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Great reporting and updating. Thank you, everyone, for the information. I enjoy being informed. News is good. KEYT right on top of the story! Good job all of you, in studio and in field. Flash Flood Warning has now expired, just Flash Flood Watch now until 9am. Thank you County Flood Control. Creeks good and handling the downpour. Kelsey Gerckins - KEYT, you put everything in perspective (rate rates now vs last year) and you made everything better with your balanced reporting!

Shasta Guy Jan 17, 2019 07:12 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Mission creek is running like a mini Colorado river this morning. It looks like San Marcos Pass picked up 5” of rain in the last 12 hrs. Several locations on the ridge exceeded 0.75”/hr during the night. Did anyone get a middle of the night alert on their phone?

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:06 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Wow, with all this hysteria, nada. Passed to south/east as per usual. Last year was a freak event. Creeks are running as they should, it's normal for rocks to roll in them (check out the SY river when is rolling) and still loads of room for more water. Lots of click bait hysteria, and overreaction to avoid lawsuits. Sad.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 06:28 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

As Brittany Spears would say .... “Oops I did it again ! “. Another missed call on the weather by OES..... they evacuated Montecito and repopulate without thinking that the intensity of this last storm of the system would have the possibility of coming down as hard as it is...... now their message is ... “. It’s too late for the public to get out with the flash flood warnings so just shelter in place and hope for the best “ .... Come on ..... you get paid to do better than this. Obviously, it’s up to each of us to decide to play it safe and get to a safer location in the end.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 10:12 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Yes, they did. On an alert somewhere around 5:00, he WAS quoted as saying something along these lines - it’s too late to drive out during this flood warning. Stay where you are.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 10:13 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Yes, they did. On an alert somewhere around 5:00, he WAS quoted as saying something along these lines - it’s too late to drive out during this flood warning. Stay where you are.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 06:22 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

"Flash Flood Warning NOW". Richard Thompson, National Weather Service on KEYT. Flood Warning might be over at 7:30a.m but "may be extended". He said pretty impressive rain rates so far today, but not as bad as last year.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 06:03 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Hwy 101 at La Conchita, flash flooding right now on 101, KEYT reporting. Will 101 be closed? CHP: Charlotte Ln/SR192. Santa Barbara. Traffic Hazard. 5:56 AM. 5:50 AM. TREE DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 05:40 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Heavy rain is in foothills and mountains, not much in low-lying areas. More heavy rain will be passing over Montecito soon, KEYT, 5:40a.m. Heads up Montecito.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 05:19 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

"Hearing pops at raging Montecito Creek upper Montectio", says Alex Biston, KEYT. Rain 1" per hour predicted. Tracy Lehr, KEYT, reporting from #154, lots of heavy rain right now, she says. 5:17a.m.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 05:06 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Rob Lewin on KEYT now "We will have debris flows. Get to high ground now, or go to 2nd floor, or go to center of house right now. This is no time to panic." He said it won't be as bad as last year. No evacuations. No reports of flooding in low-lying areas yet (5:04a.m.). "Shelter-in-place, don't get on road right now" he said. He doesn't want anyone driving through standing water, "don't want any cars washed away in flooded streets".

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 04:59 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

KEYT reporter on scene is excellent, she's reporting from Montecito right now and says she heard "thumping" in creek upper area of Montecito. She's brave to be there during a Flash Flood Warning - Senerey de los Santos.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 04:48 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

"Flood Watch. National Weather Service. 242 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019---Thomas, Sherpa, and Whittier burn scars--southern Santa Barbara County * Until 9 am PST this morning. Peak rainfall rates from 0.75 to 1.00 inch per hour." KEYT is saying it just NOW turned into" flash flood warning" due to heavy downpours especially in Montecito, live on air at 4:45am Thursday.

Pebblehill Jan 16, 2019 10:16 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

The amount of rain that falls and the amount of time it rains are not the same predictor for the debris flow and flood hazards. It could rain really hard for 15 minutes like it did last year triggering the slide, or it could rain more lightly for days on end. It's the amount of rain per minute that is the issue I think?

Shasta Guy Jan 16, 2019 09:18 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Northern California, Shasta, and the Sierras are getting hammered right now based on the Doppler radar. It’s good for us that that storm intensity passed us to the north otherwise we’d have super bad problems.

Shasta Guy Jan 17, 2019 07:58 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Actually it was a single storm system that hit the state. We just caught the southern section of it while the more intense core passed through north of us and dropped substantial precipitation in the Bay Area, Central Valley, Tahoe and etc. The 8km Western Pacific IR animation at NOAA showed it clearly.

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:10 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

SHASTA GUY the storm intensity did not pass to the north - that is a different storm. It passed to the south east.

a-1566429099 Jan 16, 2019 08:13 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Hey weather people. You've proven incredibly unreliable. 100% rain all day we are told. Nope! Another big goose egg. Just admit it. Running unreliable math models to predict rain doesn't work. It's absolutely insane how perverse it's gotten. BTW - How do you EVER quote 100% chance of rain and then change that? I'm sure glad the sun will rise 100% of the time tomorrow and you're not in charge of it.

tagdes Jan 16, 2019 07:58 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

If one is on Aware and Prepare we were informed at 5:57 pm yesterday that this storm is forecast to have rates below the debris flow thresholds. It was also on the news then and there again tonight with the caveat that we will be informed of any changes. There have been 2 erroneous posts regarding 100 year storms. I worked on several projects at the County where we used those factors in design. So to clear it up it means that there is a 1 in a hundred chance of having one in a given year. So we could, like SLO County had one in 1964 and 1973, even have 2 in the same year. We had them in 1969, 1995 and of course last year. The factors are too numerous to go into here but vary considerably by area.

PurpleBee Jan 16, 2019 07:11 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

I have to say that I am losing faith in the whole system. Last January with the slides and destruction the warnings weren't good enough for the folks that needed to evacuate to leave. Catastrophic losses there. Then, having signed up for two kinds of alerts on our two computers, and three of our cell phones we began to gets alerts every. Time. the winds came up . They totally blew it when alerts were sent out regarding the fire in Goleta. I shrugged and gave them the benefit of the doubt. Bugs, you know, that they were going to get fixed. Time rolls along and the alerts went out as a blanket, not necessarily just in the area affected about the police departments high speed chase sending those not nearby into an uproar. Now predictions are, as it seems to be, based on KEYTs inaccurate information, so much for Accuweather, making the poor folks panic and forced to leave their homes again over what really could be called a non-event for Tuesday. I got no less than six emails, texts and messages on my home phone about Tuesday and what had to be done about it on Sunday afternoon, but then nothing again when the storm was about to hit. Then today absolutely nothing about this storm. How do you choose what to believe? Do you just do it and get the horses and other animals packed up and take them away for shelters? Do you pack up all the things that are important, again? At this point do you ever unpack? Not to mention the money these actions cost. This system is not working folks .

a-1566429099 Jan 17, 2019 07:33 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Purple, if you have a computer, you have access to detailed info. You don't need to be a meteorologist to read it. The reporters got spooked, and for good reason, but 1) we were lucky, and 2) the drainage systems worked.

PurpleBee Jan 17, 2019 05:20 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Unfortunately I do not have any other way of getting the news about rain, flooding, warnings, watches, slides, debris flow, evacuation or shelter in place, etc... other than KEYT and it's sister stations. I cannot decide what to do when the information provided is inaccurate. I am up at this much too early hour to hear what they have to say now. Kelsey is really upset. She is telling people to go as high as they can, and then shelter in place. She is talking with that tone in her voice, and yet at the same time she sounds like she is trying not to cry. Poor Tracy Lehr is standing out on SMP getting rained on and looking like a drowned rat. Again, this storm was not supposed to be that bad, but here we are.

PurpleBee Jan 17, 2019 05:21 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Unfortunately I do not have any other way of getting the news about rain, flooding, warnings, watches, slides, debris flow, evacuation or shelter in place, etc... other than KEYT and it's sister stations. I cannot decide what to do when the information provided is inaccurate. I am up at this much too early hour to hear what they have to say now. Kelsey is really upset. She is telling people to go as high as they can, and then shelter in place. She is talking with that tone in her voice, and yet at the same time she sounds like she is trying not to cry. Poor Tracy Lehr is standing out on SMP getting rained on and looking like a drowned rat. Again, this storm was not supposed to be that bad, but yet here we are.

therealbebe Jan 16, 2019 07:21 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Purplebee, at some point you do your homework and make your own choices. Too many alerts, not enough alerts, what do I do oh me oh my? Stop relying on others to tell you what to do. And then take responsibility for your own - EDUCATED - choices.

Shasta Guy Jan 16, 2019 06:23 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Flicka, thanks for background info after the Coyote Fire. Thunderstorms hit after 2am tonight. I bet a short time after that my iPhone goes off calling for evacuations...

SBZZ Jan 16, 2019 06:02 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

I would think Montecitoans are now pretty sensitive about rainfall and its potential effects and that they would evacuate if it started raining really hard, be it haphazardly. The County should not worry about a wrong prediction - elevate this situation back to at least an advisory type of evacuation notice. It is going to rain more from this storm than the one yesterday.

CoastWatch Jan 16, 2019 05:08 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

NANNY STATE can't predict 1" or 3" of Mother Natures effects... Go figure- Call Hanna Beth Jackson or maybe Das Williams can give you some direction... Perhaps Mayor Murillo...

Factotum Jan 16, 2019 04:03 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

So if you don't get "officially warned" you are not going to take your own precautions? You sound very informed about the threats. Act accordingly and responsibly.

Flicka Jan 16, 2019 03:42 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

The watershed hasn't recovered, they estimate it will take 3-5 years for that. The 1969 flood with debris damage was 5 years after the Coyote Fire (1964). Warnings are based on the best information available and yesterday it didn't pour as hard as anticipated. The County is "damned if they do and damned if they don't" as far as warnings go. They gave strict warnings last year for "above 192" and about 10-15% heeded the evac orders. Yesterday a deputy said door to door warning people got a "we're staying" response. The County was blamed last year for not making the whole Montecito below 192 mandatory instead of voluntary, like that would have had any more moving out than above 192. Last Jan they gave flash flood warnings and anyone by a creek shouldn't have needed someone to tell them to go or stay. Just go! Some were "monitoring the creek" by them. Flash floors come on like a freight train, w/o warning. There is such a thing as personal responsibility.

Potif Jan 16, 2019 04:47 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

I definitely agree that there is no way that the watershed has recovered in just one year. And with the ground saturated, trees and boulders can easily move, and/or come down, along with more mud. Trees coming down is common, especially in the Montecito area. There is also a lot of wind supposed to be connected to the storm which can easily cause trees to go down, with the ground soaked as it now is.

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