CalMatters
By Levi Sumagaysay, CalMatters
Mass deportations promised by President-elect Donald Trump could have a seismic economic effect in California — potentially inflicting billions of dollars in direct damages to a wide range of industries, including small business, agriculture, construction and child care, advocates and academics said.
The impact could also spread outward to other sectors, including growth drivers like tech.
The Golden State relies heavily on the labor of immigrants, whether they’re naturalized U.S. citizens, have temporary visas or are undocumented. More than 10 million, or 27%, of California’s population is foreign-born, according to the most recent U.S. Census data. Roughly a fifth of those are thought to be undocumented; as of 2022, estimates ranged from 1.8 million undocumented immigrants, according to the Pew Research Center, to 2.4 million, according to the left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
If undocumented immigrants “magically disappear, you’re going to erase 10% of California production,” said Giovanni Peri, professor of international economics at UC Davis. “We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars.”
The loss of workers only speaks to part of the financial impact of deportations. Undocumented immigrants also power the state’s economy as consumers and taxpayers.
There may also be indirect impacts from the deportations. The loss of workers in construction, agriculture (including the state’s world-famous wine industry), hospitality and the care economy would have ripple effects on the rest of the state, according to Manuel Pastor, professor of sociology and American studies and ethnicity at the University of Southern California.
“Behind every software engineer is an army of nannies, food-service workers and gardeners,” Pastor said.
Pastor thinks businesses are likely to protest significant cuts to their workforces given how tight the labor market is. “They’ve come for the tax cut, they didn’t stay for stripping away their labor force,” he said, referring to business owners who supported Trump.
At his campaign rallies, Trump has said immigrants are “attacking” Black and Latino Americans’ jobs. Federal data undermines that claim, instead showing foreign-born, noncitizen Black and Hispanic workers predominantly work different types of jobs than their native-born counterparts.
It could be costly to replace those who are deported. In the construction industry, for example, the median weekly earnings of full-time, U.S.-born workers as of 2020 were $1,031 vs. $786 for foreign-born workers, according to an analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In California, the median hourly wage as of 2021 was $30 an hour for U.S.-born workers vs. $24 an hour for immigrant workers vs. $16 an hour for undocumented workers, according to the California Immigrant Data Portal, a project by the Equity Research Institute at USC, which is directed by Pastor.
Even if Trump does not fully carry out his plan — or takes a long time to do so — the mere threat of deportations will have an economic impact, said Maria Lemus, executive director of Vision y Compromiso, a national community-based organization started in San Francisco that supports promotores, people who serve as liaisons between immigrant communities and health and social service providers.
“There will probably be a lot of people not going to work for fear of getting picked up,” Lemus said. “Employers will suffer the repercussions of this also.”
If a segment of the population goes into hiding, they will earn less and spend less, she said. Their kids — who are likely U.S. citizens — may not go to school, either, Lemus added.
And undocumented immigrants contribute not just their labor, they also pay significantly into government coffers. In 2022, they paid $8.5 billion in local and state taxes in California, according to a national study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Mass deportations would lead to lost sales, property and income taxes paid by those immigrants — including into programs they have never drawn from because they can’t, such as unemployment insurance benefits, or, until recently, Medi-Cal.
Then there are the immigrants who have legal status and may be in the state for different reasons, such as for temporary work. During the campaign this time around, Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance mentioned that they would also target the Temporary Protected Status program, which allows immigrants to stay in this country and work legally if their countries are determined to be unsafe.
The Trump administration may also target different visas that allow people born elsewhere to come to California to work in the fields (the H-2A visa), or in the tech industry (the H-1B visa). During his first term, Trump loosened rules for the issuing of visas for temporary workers such as the ones who worked for businesses he owned, and tightened rules for H-1B visas.
The U.S. approved more than 46,000 H-1B visas for California employers in September, according to the most recent U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services data. About 30% were for Google, Meta and Apple.
Preparing for what Trump’s deportations could bring
Chris Iglesias, CEO of Unity Council, a nonprofit affordable-housing developer that also provides social services to thousands of residents of Oakland’s Fruitvale neighborhood, said people there are alarmed but not panicked.
Iglesias said there is “a lot of Trump-proofing” going on at organizations such as his, which serve low-income and marginalized communities that include undocumented immigrants.
Though President Joe Biden’s administration has also deported immigrants, Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric is different. He has referred to immigrants as criminals, “rough people” and even animals. The incoming president has said he will use the U.S. military to carry out deportations.
“He built his whole campaign off vilifying Latinos and immigrants,” Iglesias said. “People feel ready. They know this is coming.” Iglesias said the previous Trump term, plus the pandemic, strengthened bonds in the community, which has found “different ways to feed and house” its members.
He is also taking comfort in the fact that Oakland is a sanctuary city, and in the promises state officials have made, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta, to fight the Trump administration. Newsom has called a special session to ask the state Legislature to fund lawsuits against the incoming administration. Bonta told CalMatters in a recent interview that his office is preparing legal challenges to “a full frontal assault on our immigrant communities.”
In San Francisco, Lemus’ organization has joined with other community groups to prepare for the deportations.
They are working on getting out information about what people can do to get ready and to inform them of their legal rights. “They don’t have to open their doors,” she said. “They can refuse to give out their information.”
She also said the fear is bound to be felt by others who could be mistaken for being undocumented: “I’m a dark Latina. What if I’m walking somewhere and don’t have my (ID)? What would happen to me?”
What business and industry are saying — or not saying
Business and labor representatives from some of the industries most likely to be affected refused interview requests from CalMatters, or had no comment. They include the California Restaurant Association, Napa Valley Vintners, the Wine Institute and the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California.
The California Chamber of Commerce emailed a statement from its president, Jennifer Barrera: “It is no secret that undocumented workers greatly contribute to California’s economy given our geographical proximity to the border, which is why CalChamber has been a long-time supporter of a national comprehensive effort that provides a pathway to citizenship or legal status for these individuals while at the same time addressing border security.”
A.J. Rossitto, advocacy director for the California Hotel and Lodging Association, said the group “does not anticipate a significant impact to hotel operations in California at this time.”
That contradicts the view of Unite Here Local 11, a union that represents 32,000 hospitality workers in Southern California and Arizona who work in hotels, restaurants, universities, convention centers and airports.
“It’s really hard to hear that there would be no impact,” said Ada Briceño, co-president of the union. “It seems there’s a shortsightedness about not understanding who (the workers) are.”
She said the union is trying to figure out how to support those who would feel the impact of deportations, from its own members to their children and families. That includes educating the workers about what to do in case of workplace raids, or “making sure they’re able to assign legal guardians to their children.”
Many California small businesses could also be affected by deportations.
Iglesias, of Unity Council in Oakland, said “a lot of our merchants and business owners in Fruitvale, whether they’re immigrants with or without status, are worried about the impact on their businesses.”
Carolina Martinez, CEO of small business advocacy group CAMEO Network, said “entrepreneurs who are undocumented pay taxes and support the economy.”
Latin American immigrants start businesses at double the rate of other Americans, she said, referring to a recent UCLA Luskin Public Policy analysis of U.S. Census data, which also found that immigrants started 36% of U.S. businesses last year.
Besides the deportation worries, Martinez is concerned about a possible drop in government funding that helps small businesses get up and running: “Business leaders and advocates need to speak up and support ongoing investments. Small businesses are a bipartisan issue.”
This article was originally published by CalMatters.
COASTW – “There isn’t ONE Country in the World that has such an insane “drop a kid on our soil and they get citizenship and entitlements”. NOT ONE COUNTRY.”
That statement is absolutely, categorically, unequivocally, completely 100% WRONG. TOTAL BS.
You didn’t even bother to take 2 seconds to look it up, huh? https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-birthright-citizenship
Every Country with Unrestricted Birthright Citizenship (jus soli):
The following countries have unrestricted birthright citizenship: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chad, Child, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Lesotho, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, the United States, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
Does anyone truly care whether or not they have birthright citizenship in any country other than the US? Does any other country offer the same rights/benefits at birth as does the US? I haven’t heard or read of anyone walking miles into any other country than the US so their child can be born an American.
DOOLY – “I haven’t heard or read of anyone walking miles into any other country than the US so their child can be born an American.”
LOL….. think about that one.
LOL! Yeah, but it’s still Newsom that’s hurting the middle class. Right COAST? BEES? BASIC?
Unfortunately, many field and farm workers will be out of work in the near future due to the advancements in robotic farm technology. Much like back in the days of when hand-picking cotton was taken over by technology, it’s already happening. For SB county, robotic (ground and aerial) harvesting machines will and are directly affecting….
– Wine Grapes
– Strawberries
– Avocados
– Lemons (SB and Ventura)
– Oranges (mostly Ventura County)
BEES – and? You ok with taking hard working parents from their children, regardless what industry they work in?
Sacjon: The “and” is simply Supply vs Demand. It also makes no sense that children would be taken away from hard-working or even non-working parents, or why the industry a parent works in would have any correlation. Very strange.
Yada yada yada yawn….. More deflection from BEES…. surprise surprise.
I’m simply trying to understand your take on this. Are you intentionally nebulous all the time? You say a lot but really don’t say anything. Curious, indeed.
If a parent breaks the law and goes to jail what happens to their kids?
Or are you saying that no parent should ever be convicted of a crime, white collar or otherwise?
Near future? How near? When is this happening?
Do you have any examples of robotic harvesting being cost effective and functional? Anywhere in the world?
Google is your friend.
https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2020/08/27/automation-helps-solve-specialty-crop-challenges
Technically it is a criminal offense to be in the US illegally. Same as Australia. It is a deportable offense.
If the new administration goes after the low hanging fruit of targeting convicted criminal, incarcerated, targeted upon release, it would be at worst a neutral cost to the State of CA.
If I am an “unlawful non-citizen” in Australia who goes to jail there, I can expect to be deported back to the USA upon release. In other words, by my own actions I would have worn out my welcome and the welcome is withdrawn. That’s fair. I expect this will be the policy of the US and my guess is that once again the new administration will deport fewer people that Obama did
CNN- During his first term, Trump also promised mass deportations. And he did deport a large number of people – more than 1.5 million – during his four years in office, according to Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.
But that’s about half the 2.9 million deportations undertaken during Barack Obama’s first term and fewer than the 1.9 million deportations during Obama’s second term. It’s on par with Biden’s 1.49 million deportations
Being present in the United States without legal documentation is in itself not a crime.
True that. But
“Being present in the U.S., that status, is not a crime,” Morawetz said.
That doesn’t mean undocumented immigrants can live in the U.S. without consequence, said Rick Su, a professor at the University at Buffalo School of Law. Federal authorities can deport them.
A criminal violation comes with a punishment, like time in prison. Civil cases come with penalties instead. Deportation is considered a penalty under federal law, not a punishment
Entering the US without proper documentation is a crime. That crime “sticks” with you and is ongoing no matter how long you stay in the US because of the “failure to depart” clause.
1911.8 sec 1325, 1326
These laws cover a lot of ground because they define various types of illegal entry and make failure to depart an ongoing crime. People ask about the statute of limitations and don’t realize that “failure to depart” is not a one time failure, it is forever
I’m almost ready to ixnay this platform as it is, more and more, showing bias and mis-truths (I know that’s not a word but you get the idea)
This is BS “liberal” propaganda
I don’t even like Trump, but I like these lying, stealing, “liberals” even less
Layt: I know what you are referring to regarding some of the “propaganda.” I wouldn’t say it’s propaganda as much as a somewhat misguided belief system that a few journalists and commenters seem to have. I can’t stand Trump either, but we need to accept (not agree) the landslide mandate. I would recommend that you continue supporting the spirit of Edhat because more reasonable voices need to be heard….not the “squeaky wheels.” The far-left’s “my way or the highway” and “answer my questions you idiot” is what got us to where we are today. I hope others here will support your point of view. Hang in there my friend….you are not alone.
Thank you Beesknees
How I winning the vote by less than one percent a “landslide”?
Reagan had a landslide. Trump did not.
Alex – Let’s forget the numbers. The bottom line and what is truly relevant is that Trump was elected, aka he won. Also, there is a conservative senate and house for Trump to help reach his reported goals to benefit all Americans. Regarding concerns about tariffs, it appears people were wetting their pants needlessly; and he’s not even in office yet.
“Landslide” probably is not the best word for what occurred. Maybe there is a better word to use when one candidate wins 31 states, including all seven “battleground” states. The results were shocking to everyone. As I watched MSNBC election night, it became increasingly obvious what was happening. All I can say is one way or another, we need to find a way to work together.
BEES lol you just can’t help yourself can you? Yes, LAYT has plenty of commrades here who believe in conspiracy theories and cry about how liberal a liberal leaning site in a heavily liberal town is, like you, Basic, Coast and your other pals here. Thing is, we don’t need that. I like to engage with intellectually honest, reasonable and decent folk who acknowledge fact with some dignity. I’ve found those commenters are in short supply here.
Sacjon: No need to group me in with those that you are calling my “palls.” I mostly agree with you and enjoy your comments. I do disagree sometimes though with what I would call stinging unnecessary descriptors. It’s all good though as long as anger doesn’t enter into the equation. You be you and the rest of us will simply be ourselves. It’s a beautiful and sunny SB day. Great day to head to Campus Point….nice little 1 footers rolling in right now.
I think you used to post here under another handle. What was it?
I think so too, ALEX. Almost sounds as deflective and dodgy as Doulie lol!
Sock puppet for at least one other name – Rob Watson
Yap, yap, yap, cry, cry, cry.
Now show proof that the article is flawed or “propaganda.”
Opinions don’t count.
LAYT – what have liberals “stolen” from you or anyone?
One-sided article. No mention of the balance of the economics involved – social programs, homeless programs, education programs, healthcare programs, etc that we need currently to spend countless dollars supporting many of these folks. No mention of the concept of using cheap illegal immigration as labor to do work here, philosophically, and whether that’s right or wrong. No mention of the concept of laws and legality. 100% there will be big costs, financially and morally, involved with deporting the masses of folks who aren’t here legally. But if your argument is that it’ll be too expensive to bear financially and we should keep using illegal immigrants to do jobs that no one else will do, then well – I disagree. Let the prices rise. Too bad. Markets and economics have ways of straitening themselves out. Using foreign, illegally-immigrated labor no matter where in the world they come from to just keep prices down isn’t right.
CLUE IN SB Progressive-Liberals- The change has happened due to the inaction and failed progressive policies- From a virtually open border that has allowed the influx of 15 million in 4 yrs , madated regulations forcing a WOKE ideology which has costs us BILLIONS while forced feed down our societies throats, to a failed engery and economy.If you came to this country illegally and commit a crime, you are outta here- just as in ANY other Country in the world. I am hoping the riduculous 14th Amendment, that was written to address the formally enslaved, is GONE. There isn’t ONE Country in the World that has such an insane “drop a kid on our soil and they get citizenship and entitlements”. NOT ONE COUNTRY.
COASTW- “Birthright is NOT ACCEPTED BY THOSE PARENTS HERE ILLEGALLY IN OTHER COUNTRIES…. Geez dude.”
Once again, that is totally wrong. “Birthright citizenship is a governmental policy under which any child born within a country’s borders or territory is automatically granted citizenship in that country—even if their parents are not citizens.”
It is AUTOMATIC. Full stop.
Second of all, coming here illegally for the purpose of giving birth for citizenship is also, yup…. ILLEGAL. “Such “birth tourism” is illegal in the United States, though the procedures used to deter or detect the perpetrators and enforce the laws are not always clear.” – https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-birthright-citizenship
Just because it’s hard to enforce, doesn’t mean we allow it. Please do some basic research.
Coastwatch wrote: “I am hoping the riduculous 14th Amendment, that was written to address the formally enslaved, is GONE.”
What the heck?! That’s extremely anti-American and anti-Constitution.
You might want to brush up on the 14th amendment and how it’s been applied.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourteenth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
CHUF – “Send them packing and you will not have to pay anything for housing and health ! ”
How so? Do you think that if you deport millions of immigrants that your taxes will magically lower? I’m assuming of course, you mean pay for THEIR housing and health, right? What about the kids who are US citizens? Leave them on the streets? How much will that cost? Can you imagine the lawsuits we’ll be paying for when millions of kids sue the federal government for deporting their parents and kicking the kids to the streets? How about the cost of the mass deportation itself? That gonna be free? Of course not. Any idea how much that will cost? Nah.
Seriously though, how will all these costs disappear via a mass deportation? You’ve thought this through, right?
SBLETSGET – “If a person commits a crime and they go to jail, what happens to their children?”
They stay with the other parent or relatives or go into the system. See how this is different? You’re talking possibly deporting BOTH parents, aunts, uncles, maybe even grandparents. And all this in some massive operation.
So again, what do you propose they do with the US citizen children of these deportees?
SBLETSGET – “If a parent breaks the law and goes to jail what happens to their kids? Or are you saying that no parent should ever be convicted of a crime, white collar or otherwise?”
Yeah, you’ve already said that and no, I’m not saying that at all in any way shape or form nor is anyone else anywhere or anytime. You really need to work on reading comprehension.
Did anyone else see the latest clip of John Stewart on Comedy Central – “the Republicans are playing chess while the Democrats are going to the nurses office because they glued their balls to their leg”?