The City of Santa Barbara has warned that the California Aqueduct could lose up to 87% of its capacity over the next decade if critical repairs are not funded, posing a significant risk to the region’s long-term water reliability.
At its February 19, 2026 meeting, the Santa Barbara Water Commission urged immediate state and federal funding to address the aqueduct’s deterioration.
Subsidence has damaged portions of the aqueduct, especially the San Luis Canal, a jointly operated segment that delivers water for both the State Water Project and the federal Central Valley Project.
Without immediate action, Santa Barbara and surrounding communities that depend on aqueduct deliveries could face direct impacts on water supply.
State officials are addressing the issue through the California Aqueduct Subsidence Program (CASP), established by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
CASP focuses on both corrective and preventive measures as part of its interim strategy. Planned actions include raising concrete liners over approximately 47 miles in pools 17, 18, 20, 21, 24, and 31, and removing gates at check 17 to improve water flow.
Subsidence, which is the gradual and permanent sinking of land, is the central issue. In California’s Central Valley, it is primarily caused by decades of groundwater pumping.
When groundwater is extracted, surrounding soils compress, and once compacted, they do not return to their original levels, even if water is later reintroduced.
Officials note that subsidence is ongoing and is expected to continue for years, even if groundwater pumping is halted or reduced.
The Central Coast is especially vulnerable because the Coastal Branch turnout is located in one of the most heavily affected areas. The San Luis Canal, running through the San Joaquin Valley, has experienced some of the most severe land settling.
Land beneath the aqueduct has dropped between seven and eight feet from its original elevation, forcing operators to lower water levels. This has reduced the volume of water that can be delivered to the Central Coast Water Authority and Santa Barbara.
The aqueduct, which serves roughly 27 million Californians, is divided into segments, or “pools,” that rely on gravity to move water. Subsidence has disrupted this design, creating uneven canal bottoms and choke points that restrict flow.
Approximately 44% of the aqueduct’s capacity has already been lost, and officials estimate that without repairs, the reduction could reach 87% within the next 10 years.
Repairs are estimated to cost $3.9 billion over the next decade, with the state responsible for approximately $2.96 billion and the federal government covering about $0.95 billion, reflecting the system’s shared operation.
While the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 was designed to prevent future subsidence, it does not fund repairs for existing infrastructure damage. The Water Commission has recommended that the mayor request state and federal appropriations in the 2026-2027 budget cycle.
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Maybe the money that is coming from Trump’s global tariff’s will help usher our aqueduct into a new golden age! Oh wait….
But I thought CA was so wealthy and prosperous that we should afford to handle this ourselves. What is always being said here – “4th or 5th largest economy in the world”? So, where’s all our money going? I know.
Glad you finally realize that it’s going to the red states that live on welfare thanks to us.
Major problems like this are predictable and covered by reserves built up over years.