Anonymous
Update by the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management
4:50 p.m., January 13, 2019
The National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast that a storm will reach Santa Barbara County late tonight, lasting through Monday (14 January 2019). Isolated thunderstorms over coastal waters are possible, with extremely low chances of making landfall. The rain intensities for this storm are forecast to stay below debris flow thresholds; however, residents are strongly encouraged to stay alert to changing conditions.
More storms are forecast to arrive later this week. We will be providing updates for these storms as they get closer.
Santa Barbara County emergency officials and the NWS will continue to monitor this storm and will provide more information tomorrow. Go to readysbc.org to learn more about how to be better prepared.
Update by the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management
The weather advisory previously issued for the upcoming storm on 13 January 2019 has been cancelled. The National Weather Service (NWS) has forecasted that the storm system will arrive in Santa Barbara County late Sunday evening (13 January 2019) lasting through Monday (14 January 2019). Rainfall intensities for this storm are forecasted to remain below debris flow thresholds; however, residents are strongly encouraged to stay alert to changing conditions. Another storm is forecasted to arrive late Tuesday (15 January 19) with peak periods Wednesday and Thursday (16-17 January 2019). We will be providing updates for this storm as it gets closer.
Santa Barbara County emergency officials and the NWS will continue to monitor this storm and will provide more information tomorrow. Go to readysbc.org to learn more about how to be better prepared.
Update by the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management
Update by the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management
Sunday: This is a weather advisory for the storm arriving late Sunday night early Monday morning. This storm may require people in the debris flow risk areas below Santa Barbara County burn areas to evacuate prior to its arrival. This is only a weather advisory and more information will be provided as the storm system approaches.
Tonight: The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts a series of moderate to heavy storms will impact Santa Barbara County beginning tonight Friday afternoon, Jan. 11 continuing thru Thursday, Jan 17. Tonight’s storm is expected to bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, with periods of heavy downpours and peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches per hour is expected. This is below the thresholds for debris flows in and near recent burn areas; however thunderstorm activity could produce rainfall rates that exceed debris flow thresholds. Residents are encouraged to stay alert to changing conditions. Emergency officials and the NWS will continue to monitor the situation and provide regular updates.
Register for alerts from Aware and Prepare at https://readysbc.org/ (Spanish: https://readysbc.org/es/)
Aviso de Clima: Alerta para prepararse
Domingo: Este es un aviso para avisar de la tormenta que esta pronosticada para el Domingo en la tarde y Lunes en la mañana. Esta tormenta puede requerir que las personas que estén en las áreas de derrumbe sean evacuadas. Las áreas de derrumbe son áreas debajo de donde fueron los incendio. Esto es solo un aviso de clima y más información se va a proveer a como se esté cercando la tormenta.
Esta Noche: El Servicio Nacional de Meteorológico pronostica una serie de lluvias moderada hasta pesada que puede impactar el Condado de Santa Bárbara comenzando esta tarde o noche, Enero 11, 2019 hasta el Jueves, Enero 17, 2019. Se espera que la tormenta de esta noche traiga lluvias moderas hasta lluvias pesadas. También se espera que la velocidad de la lluvia sea de .5 a .75 pulgadas por hora. Esta velocidad de lluvias está abajo de lo que se requiere para poner en peligro las áreas de derrumbe y áreas quemadas. Las lluvias pesadas pueden producir velocidades altas de lluvia que pueden poner en peligro las áreas de derrumbe. Se recomienda que los residentes estén alertas a como este cambiando el clima. Oficiales de la seguridad pública y el servicio meteorológico nacional continuaran monitoreando la situación y proveerá nueva información cuando se disponible.
Update by the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management
The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts a series of moderate to heavy storms will impact Santa Barbara County beginning Friday afternoon, Jan. 11 continuing thru Thursday, Jan 17. Friday’s storm is expected to bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, with periods of heavy downpours and peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches per hour expected. This is below the thresholds for debris flows in and near recent burn areas, however thunderstorm activity could produce rainfall rates that exceed debris flow thresholds. Residents are encouraged to stay alert to changing conditions. Emergency officials and the NWS will continue to monitor the situation and provide regular updates. Register for alerts from Aware and Prepare at www.ReadySBC.org (Spanish: www.ReadySBC.org/es)
The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts multiple rain-producing storms for Santa Barbara County through Monday (14 Jan 2019).
These storms are not forecast to reach debris flow thresholds.
The Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) and NWS will continue to monitor the situation.
The European weather map forecast shows a lot of rain for us between the 9th and 19th.
This sounds like a very good scenario. Hopefully this will take the form of precipitation in the Cachuma watershed because the reservoir is still only at a measly 31% capacity.
So often the rain turns east at Pt. Conception. North gets considerably more than we do.
It looks like we have some exciting weather coming our way. NOAA just issued both a Special Weather Statement and Hydrologic Outlook. Be safe out there, and check the Doppler radar to see what’s your way.
According to the Doppler radar, the first rain should be hitting Goleta very very soon
Wrong! Still less than 38%. Lake rose less than 0.2 inches from the storm.
Close but also no – as of 8am this morning, Cachuma is at 31% of full capacity. It will be years until we see anything near 100% again. Updates can be found here under the link “Rainfall & Reservoir Summary”: https://rain.cosbpw.net/home.php
That was storm #9 since the beginning of the current water year which began last September. Today’s rainfall and reservoir summary updated 1/12/2019 @8:00 am here ……. http://www.countyofsb.org/uploadedFiles/pwd/Content/Water/Documents/rainfallreport.pdf ……. Per today’s report, Cachuma is at 31.2%. But the nice thing is at this point in time, we’re close to an historically “normal” rain year for the county – the “Normal-to-Date” rainfall. Carpinteria, Cuyama, and Santa Ynez are currently the top laggers.
Please look at forecasts before commenting!! Remember, Thomas Fire scar and others will be unstable for years. Be prepared! (Easy for me to say, considering I have a low fire risk, but I’m pretty well prepared for a quake.) If I worried about mud flow and worse, I’d be dammed scared this weekend. My sympathies to those who feel the same.
NWS local forecast: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=34.42&textField2=-119.70#.XDnNunbYrnE
County Warning: “Sunday: This is a weather advisory for the storm arriving late Sunday night early Monday morning. This storm may require people in the debris flow risk areas below Santa Barbara County burn areas to evacuate prior to its arrival. This is only a weather advisory and more information will be provided as the storm system approaches.”
Tonight (Friday): The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts a series of moderate to heavy storms will impact Santa Barbara County beginning tonight Friday afternoon, Jan. 11 continuing thru Thursday, Jan 17. Tonight’s storm is expected to bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, with periods of heavy downpours and peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches per hour is expected. This is below the thresholds for debris flows in and near recent burn areas; however thunderstorm activity could produce rainfall rates that exceed debris flow thresholds.
3, 6 and 12 hour totals are impressive!
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http://rain.cosbpw.net/home.php
I have a low flood risk also, and misspelled the “dam” word on purpose. This rainy season, and the anniversary of so much death, should prompt us all to make plans and stock up.
Thank you, NWS! Though they, NOAA and NASA are furloughed, huge thanks to these agencies’ personnel for working without pay because they know their jobs are crucial. (But their research… ! All gov scientists must be simply & totally crushed.)
——————————————————————————————————–https://www.noaa.gov/furlough-information
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-https://wjactv.com/news/local/government-shutdown-impacts-weather-forecasting-furloughs-nws-employees ——————————————————-
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/09/weather-service-is-open-forecasters-are-working-without-pay-its-taking-toll/?utm_term=.9d584e17b852
It is? Show me/us? I thought all our forecast storms were coming from the north; down the Pacific coast . Ah, no, from the west: ———————————- https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-01-10-california-storm-parade-rain-snow-middle-january
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Yay!! “After some welcome snowfall last weekend, snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is now almost 90 percent of average as of Jan. 9. The additional snow through next week will help send that number even higher.”
============================================================ this is a cool site: https://www.windy.com/?34.420,-119.708,5
Most who evacuate will be disappointed, while some who don’t will have heirs suing the County. So it goes.
Last night we got almost an inch here by the beach in Carp. Not quite “showers”.
A new Hydrologic Outlook was issued tonight at 8:24pm.
I was following the rain totals last night, and the Gaviota sensor just west of Goleta showed 1”/hr precipitation rate. Had that happened in Montecito it would have been really bad. Mission creek is flowing nicely this morning. Flowing water is one of the most pleasant sounds.
Lake Cachuma is now at 73%
Daniel Swain just updated his popular California Weather Blog. Nice commentary on the coming week plus a NOAA map showing to-date % of normal rainfall for counties in the state …….. http://weatherwest.com/archives/6604
Nice link there Eastbeach. This looks to be one of our wettest weeks in several years. We’ll see how it all plays out. North, south, and the Sierras need lots of precip.
why troll?
East Beach re: Swain: THANK YOU! Great site, I subscribed.
Yes, the idea of numerous storms in one or two weeks is such a gift to S. coast. I sure would like more daytime rain, just to enjoy it. I’ll have a window cracked tonight so I can hear it start.
@Shasta and 7:58PM – Glad you’re enjoying the California Weather Blog. After this storm sequence, it’ll be interesting to see if the “blocking pattern” Swain says so many models are predicting will materialize.
Storm scaled down front page NP…