Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

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Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara
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By Bruce

2100 looks a lot like 2007. In 2007, local environmental artists proposed to draw a "light blue line" showing the future (date unknown) impacts of climate change (map on the right).

Their story was based on the amount of sea level rise captured in the Greenland ice sheet. The City's report figure 12, for 2100 (on the left), looks rather similar. 

We've learned a lot in 10 years. Unfortunately, we haven't learned how to effectively reduce our global carbon footprint (although the City of Santa Barbara and the State of California are working hard at this) to prevent sea level rise. Kids born today in Santa Barbara will see their beaches disappear over the decades.

 

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Shasta Guy Dec 02, 2018 08:20 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

After reviewing the origin of the 3.3mm/yr figure from Topex/Poseidon there’s good reason why NOAA retains all the coastal gauge measurements. The 3.3mm/yr figure is not a measurement but instead it is a computation with a significant adjustment called the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here are several links on the topic of Satellite Based Altimetry for sea level estimation. The first one is authored by someone who is not a friend to global warming, but it is informative on the issues of sea level measurement based on his experience as an oceanographer. NOAA is disingenuous showcasing the 3.3mm/yr figure because it’s not a neat and tidy number as those links discuss. http://21sci-tech.com/Articles_2011/Winter-2010/Morner.pdf https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01490419.2010.491031?src=recsys& https://newsblaze.com/issues/science/senior-researcher-questions-satellite-measurements-of-global-sea-level_84168/ https://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/L.PARKER.2014.Pegel_.vs_.Sat_.o.pdf

macpuzl Dec 02, 2018 09:25 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

The satellite data indeed had calibration issues in the time frame from which your articles arise, about 8 years ago. Those issues were resolved, and the data reprocessed. You're beating a dead horse.

Shasta Guy Dec 02, 2018 09:06 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

The oceanservice.noaa link posted by Macpuzl is an excellent resource. However, you must navigate multiple links within it for balance. It leads with the statement that sea level is rising on an accelerating basis from the satellite measurements starting in 1992 at ~3mm/yr as stated by Macpuzl. However, the sea level rise as calculated from coastal gauges is 1.7-1.8 mm/yr with San Luis Obispo and SB ~0.9-1.1 mm/yr. In the coastal gauge section you can navigate to any gauge in the world, and the ones with the longest record history have lower uncertainty in the measurement. There is no reason to doubt the integrity of those numbers. Additionally none of the long term gauges show any acceleration in the rate of rise for the past few decades (there is a peer reviewed study on this). I do not doubt that the satellite measurement record calculates a ~3mm/yr rate of rise, but it is not consistent with other reliable records posted at the same website. The uncertainty standards for coastal measurements are +/- 3.0mm/yr for only 20 years of data and +/- 1.5mm/yr for 30 years of data. The satellite record is only 26 yrs. At some point the the satellite/coastal measurement discrepancy gap will be closed, but for now the coastal measurements are a vital data source for investigating sea level change. Therefore, Sea Dog and Macpuzl you are both correct on the data sets you’re relying upon, however the relationship between these data sets is not yet reconciled.

macpuzl Dec 02, 2018 12:52 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

We've been through this before. The Topex/Poseidon data that results in the 3.3mm and accelerating rate is *much* less noisy than the old tidal gauge data, but deniers like to go back to the old tidal gauge data which is especially subject to error to make their speculative data manipulations. The bottom line is that sea level is rising, and the rate of the rise is increasing. There is a lag in the feedback loop because the ocean acts as a temporary buffer on the effects of warming, but the acceleration rate will continue to rise for years even if we stopped emissions completely at this point.

a-1545078245 Dec 01, 2018 04:47 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

The bottom line, after reading the comments and going to several of the links, boils down to this: either you believe or you do not believe. Being a believer does not make one better/worse than someone who is not a believer (or to use a negative label, a "denier"). Some people believe in God, Heaven, and Hell (although not the Pope apparently), and some people think it's s pile of BS. Who is right? Who knows!!! Just don't get a "bee in your bonnet" if someone else does not hold your beliefs, and we'll all make it though life much happier.

macpuzl Dec 01, 2018 05:07 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

That's right. If you want to ignore facts and think that the Sun orbits the Earth, no one can stop you. They would, however, rightly consider you a few sandwiches short of a picnic.

macpuzl Nov 30, 2018 08:03 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Learn about sea level change and its connection to CO2-induced global warming, and the falsehoods being put forth by deniers: =========================================================================== https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/02/26/global-sea-level-data-agency-formal-response-completely-unwarranted-attacks-climate-science-deniers =========================================================================== https://water.usgs.gov/edu/sealevel.html =========================================================================== http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/american-climate-change-deniers-all-at-sea/ =========================================================================== http://www.blotreport.com/science/deniers-sea-level/

Shasta Guy Nov 30, 2018 06:24 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Sea Dog, with a historic rate of sea level rise in our area of 1.07mm/yr based on previous posters, over 40 years that corresponds to 42.8mm or 1.68”. If you’ve been at the harbor for that whole time then such a gradual change would seem imperceptible. Tree grow faster in diameter than that. over your experience at the harbor.

macpuzl Nov 30, 2018 04:11 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

And for US CO2 emissions: ============================================================== https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jun/18/environmental-protection-agency/are-greenhouse-emissions-down-under-donald-trump-e/

Luvaduck Nov 30, 2018 01:02 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

May we assume the new airport is built on a mesa not wetlands/lagoon, and if the ocean rises, would be a large island sort of like an aircraft carrier so all that would need to be added to airliners is tail-hooks?

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 10:33 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Facts from the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration: The relative sea level trend is 1.07 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 1.11 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1973 to 2017 which is equivalent to a change of 0.35 feet ( about 4 inches) in 100 years. Source - https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 02:19 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Since the stated 95% confidence limits are -1.11 mm/year and +1.11 mm/year this range includes 0.0 mm/year. This means that the NOAA sea level rise is just as likely to be 0.0 mm/year as it is to be 1.07 mm/year. In other words the NOAA sea level rise is stitistically likely to be 0.0 mm/year.

RHS Nov 30, 2018 10:30 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Agree that most of my progressive/liberal/green friends have a hard time admitting that population growth is the problem. Big fight a few years ago in the Sierra Club internal movers and shakers about this. It became bad manners and even worse to note that immigration and high birth rate creates an almost insurmountable challenge to controlling the environment in a healthy manner. Look at the great state of European environmental effort UNTIL the pressure to facilitate unrestricted immigration has been pushing progress backwards. The immigration lobby is, by the way, mainly corporate/Wall Street pro-growth money folks who want cheap labor and a lot of customers without accountability for cleaning up the mess they make.

RHS Nov 30, 2018 11:21 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

I agree with the essence of your thoughts. I know that this discussion touches on the sensitive issues or racism and "nationalism" but hopefully people can debate the subject separate from those emotional claims. China has reaped monstrous benefits from its Draconian birth control efforts. It really is pretty simple.

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 10:52 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Ironic that nationalists and environmentalists are both against mass immigration. The extrapolation that corporate interests have muzzled the Sierra Club is the most interesting of your statements. You said they're against "high birth rates" but that's only relevant for a subset of the USA population. Everyone is well aware that the native population (citizen by birth) is shrinking in the USA due to low birth rates so, to maintain the current population, we should be encouraging parents to have two children each (as is encouraged in most of Europe, China, Japan, etc.). Except the reality is that the overall population increases YOY due to the push for "open borders". The left is being played by the "refugee" argument. In Europe or the USA, it's really about bringing in cheap and fertile labor to bolster the profits of Big Business as well as the Social Security ponzi scheme that requires an increasing pool of participants.

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 09:56 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Climate change like most change is population driven. People are the cause of most issues. How many more people do environmentalists want in CA or the USA? From local photos, I see the same environmental activists wanting to end I.C.E., and pulling heart strings to allow millions more foreigners into our country and state. At meetings to discuss the 400,000 American homeless, or hundreds in Santa Barbara- the homeless numbers expected to morph into over 2 Million after the next financial adjustment -, I see some of the same people demanding open borders. Knowing people are the cause of climate change why do we want more? Why is only China concerned with population numbers? Why were we shipping our recyclables to China until China refused any more of our trash? Why is PITMIX the only post to introduce humans into the discussion? Why do we congratulate couples for families larger than a replacement child each? How do we get California’s population stabilized, and our country’s? We too often focus on the world but rarely locally. We need stable acculturated educated families to sustain the future unless the plan is to go to Mars.

Emmenanthe Nov 30, 2018 09:41 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Sea Dog demonstrates beautifully the non-logic of comparing apples and oranges - favorite tactic of the Trumpettes and their ilk.

sea dog Nov 30, 2018 09:53 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Name calling w/o actually addressing what is being talked is a favorite tactic of people with no facts ... and no debating skills ... well done !

sea dog Nov 30, 2018 08:56 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

America's carbon dioxide emissions last year fell to their lowest levels since 1994 and we are leading the world in carbon reduction even w/o the unsigned Paris treaty. We always hear about ice melting and the sea level rising. Fill a glass full of ice and then fill it with water. Let it melt and you will see the water level drop, NOT rise ! Everyone should google grand solar minimum and see what is about to happen to global temperatures. Some scientists say we are entering a super grand solar minimum. If that is true, you will not have to worry about global warming as long as you live, no matter how old you are !

macpuzl Nov 30, 2018 10:26 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Actually, CO2 emissions rose last year. And the solar minimum effects are so tiny they are dwarfed by the greenhouse gas effects. The deniers have several such long-debunked arguments up their sleeves to fool the gullible: ======================================================================= www.skepticalscience.com

macpuzl Nov 30, 2018 10:21 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

This has come up in a previous thread. Ocean currents, planetary rotation, and wind patterns, along with subsurface topology, have a big effect on what you see on any given shoreline.

EastBeach Nov 30, 2018 09:54 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

And that doesn't even consider chain-reaction consequences like lowering the albedo of the earth, releasing sequestered carbon from thawing tundra, etc.

EastBeach Nov 30, 2018 09:50 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Try doing that with a glass of sea water (salt water) and get back to us. Also, not all ice melting is floating in the ocean.

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 08:13 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Next Wednesday, 12/5, there'll be an open house at the Louise Lowry Davis Center where city staff will have many maps available and be there for questions and comments. 6-8 pm, Louise Lowry Davis Center, 1232 de la Vina (I think that's the address - access is off Victoria, with a large parking lot.) There are city web pages, https://www.santabarbaraca.gov/services/planning/mpe/lcp/slrap/default.asp , part of the local coastal program update: https://www.santabarbaraca.gov/services/planning/mpe/lcp/default.asp There's a subcommittee that meets every couple of weeks - the schedule is on the webpage and it's open to the public. Hopefully, all interested will come to the meeting on 12/5 and ask questions and learn. This is part of a process that ALL California coastal cities are doing - and probably most all coastal locales around the US. ... Santa Barbara is not alone in this. Unlike Miami, already dealing with a rising sea, we in California do have time to prepare. Betsy (a member of the subcommittee.)

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 03:11 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Betsy, thank you for posting this information. I'm curious about the facts that this subcommittee will be using. The NOAA numbers stated elsewhere in this thread indicated a sea level rise on the order of about 4 inches in 100 years. Are those the numbers that are being used? Do you have better/other information? I'm not arguing with you but nobody can have a discussion if they can't agree on the facts. Thanks again.

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 12:13 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Please check out the url I listed for the roster; it's a city-council-formed subcommittee of 9 members and 1 alternate, from the council, planning commission, harbor commission, water commission, and parks/rec commission. The public workshop, on the Draft Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment, is being done by the city, with Melissa Hetrick the project planner. The funding is primarily by a grant from the California Coastal Commission, also funding from the California State Coastal Conservancy and the City of Santa Barbara - I don't know the actual amounts from each. Having a LCP (Local Coastal Plan) is part of the California Coastal Act of 1976) and the Update was completed, accepted by the City Council 6 months or so ago, unanimously, with no public opposition. The SLR Vulnerabilities Assessment is part of that -- there's not really a sponsor, in the usual sense of the word. As for theories about how adverse human impact can be reduced, I don't think that will be part of Wednesday's workshop which will be devoted to a showing of the city vulnerabilities at various points in time, 2030, 2060, 2100. (The further out one goes the more problematic are the numbers.) A subsequent workshop (or workshops) will be about what can be/should be done to mitigate probable impacts. ...Yours are good questions and I think that there will be knowledgeable staff members at the workshop, knowledgeable and wanting to share information. Staff and others, I don't know who all will be there, but definitely there's hope that the public will be present, asking questions. The Vulnerability Assessment is available online, here: https://www.santabarbaraca.gov/services/planning/mpe/lcp/slrap/vulnerability_assessment.asp . There's a hard copy at the central Public Library for reading there - also available at the planning department on Garden Street. Hopefully, there'll be a report here on edhat about how the workshop went, photos, impressions, both and positive and negative in the edhat style! I hope this helps with questions, Betsy

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 10:04 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Please tell us more Betsy. Who is sponsoring this? Who is on the Committee you reference? Is this a grant funded project from whom? Will a variety of theories be presented on how human activity with its adverse impacts can be reduced?

a-1545078245 Nov 29, 2018 04:50 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

I doubt that anyone here can point to a reference for an actual peer-reviewed scientific study which shows a statistically significant measured sea level rise over the last 20 years in Santa Barbara. I’m not talking about some vague “action plan” or a numerically fragile GCM simulation projection, but actual science with measured results reported, statistical confidence limits, estimates of measurement noise, and enough history to show that the current sea level trends are statistically different from past eras.

PitMix Nov 29, 2018 04:18 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

If you don't think climate change is occurring now, additional facts aren't going to convince you. Just make sure your whole family knows your position, so they can blame your for their lives in 40 years.

macpuzl Nov 30, 2018 10:20 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Yeah, and if you're not "convinced" that the Earth orbits the Sun, you come up with complete garbage that conforms to your gut feelings, like the flat earthers.

a-1545078245 Nov 30, 2018 10:13 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Are you asking others to simply “believe”? Are you asking us to simply “jump on the bandwagon” that’s leaving the train station? Americans pursue what is known and in the process of being discovered to consider the yet unknown, to think, to evaluate, to decide, and to innovate. The issue is not about being “convinced”. It’s about problem identification, causation and problem solving. Some of us may choose to be part of possible solution.

a-1545078245 Nov 29, 2018 01:02 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Oh god, don't bring up the blue line... But since you did, remmewbr how City Council also wanted to approve the funds to install medallions with a private website on them? I remember the outcry from the public, the whole idea was ridiculous and unethical. Not much as changed in 11 years...

a-1545078245 Nov 29, 2018 03:25 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

@2:50 where did I deny science/climate change? I prefer tax dollars to go toward actual prevention techniques, not paint on the ground for "awareness". We have the same goal in mind.

a-1545078245 Nov 29, 2018 02:50 PM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

The lightblueline art group told the city that city staff could take over the web domain: the website was a non-issue. The whole idea was (obviously today) prescient and enormously informative. But you are right... not a lot has changed when it comes to denying science when that is somehow politically convenient.

macpuzl Nov 29, 2018 11:48 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Don't fall for the lies and FUD being spread by those who deny science. Anthropogenic climate change is happening, and we are falling farther and farther behind in doing what is necessary to prevent global disasters on an increasingly serious scale. ============================================================= http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Babycakes Nov 29, 2018 09:51 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

Is the city or state requiring property owners and real estate agent to diclose this info for properties located in these areas? If not, why not?

a-1545078245 Nov 29, 2018 09:57 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

The City and realtors will argue in the press and in court that it is repeated announcements such as this one that provide "public and available" notices to property owners. Caveat emptor.

BruceC Nov 29, 2018 09:40 AM
Projected Sea Level Rise in Santa Barbara

The City's map mid-blue area is for "storm flooding" at 2100 not actual sea level rise. But still, the similarities are there.

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