Jerry Roberts
Topic A among political junkies, 36 hours before the election: A stunning, high-quality poll, released over the weekend, reported that overwhelming support among likely woman voters has given Kamala Harris a lead over Donald Trump in Iowa – wait, what, Iowa?!?
In a ruby-red state where a six-week abortion ban recently took effect, gold-standard pollster Ann Selzer reported in Sunday’s Des Moines Register that Harris holds a 20-point edge among likely women voters over Trump, who leads among men by 14 points. Perhaps more significantly, among women voters registered independent, the Democratic Vice President holds a dominating 28-point advantage over Trump, who leads among independent men by 10 points.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by nearly 10 points in Iowa in 2016, and Joe Biden by more than eight in 2020. The Hawkeye State is overwhelmingly white and largely rural, and its entire six-person congressional delegation is Republican.
Selzer enjoys a stellar reputation among the cognoscenti, for her track record of on-the-money surveys that repeatedly confounded conventional wisdom at the time they were released — polling in advance of the Iowa Caucuses, she was the first to detect the surges of Barack Obama and Trump, in 2008 and 2016, respectively, for example.
On Sunday, the Register’s story on her new poll said that Harris holds a 47-to-44 percent lead over Trump. In June, the Republican candidate was thrashing President Joe Biden, then the Democrats’ nominee, by 18 points in Iowa; Harris sliced his lead to just four points in September, but the further momentum reflected in the new survey came came as a political shockwave.
Some polling experts argued that is an outlier, but others see it as clear evidence of undecided voters breaking heavily for Harris in the final hours before Election Day.
Dan Pfieffer, a former Obama campaign pollster, explained on social media the basic explanations possible for the poll’s surprising finding:
“Three options here,” he wrote:
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Selzer is right and Harris wins in a massive landslide.
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This poll is just a bad poll (it happens, but it happens to Selzer less than others).
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Harris isn’t really winning IA but the poll is capturing late stage momentum that bodes well for (the battle ground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania)
As a political matter, the poll bolstered a wave of confidence many Democrats have felt since a Oct. 28 Trump rally in Madison Square Garden, which received widespread and mostly negative media coverage; Trump and his campaign were criticized and censured for the hateful tone of the event, and for a series of speakers who delivered racist jokes, not to mention the candidate’s charactertistic, misogynistic insults of Harris, her intelligence and character.
In the days after, Trump bellowed at one rally that he would be a “protector of women – whether they like it or not” and rhapsodized at another about Never Trump Republican Liz Cheney being shot in the face. Harris meanwhile stuck to her familiar themes of unity and the need to turn the page on Trump, while a series of celebrity women surrogates — Beyonce, Jennifer Lopez, Cardi B, and Michelle Obama among them — delivered powerful, high-profile speeches on her behalf emphasizing the importance of Tuesday’s election to female voters.
In this context, the Iowa Poll served as political rocket fuel for Democrats, not so much for the possibility that she will win the state, as for advancing a narrative that the Trump Supreme Court’s Dobbs 2022 decision, throwing out 50 years of settled law about a woman’s right to choose to have an abortion, ignited and is sustaining massive support among women for Harris that could push her to victory in a race already framed by a significant gender split.
Harris’s most direct path to winning runs through the three midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; all three are less conservative than Iowa, and the Harris campaign has invested tens of millions of dollars in building an on-the-ground, supporter contact and get-out-the-vote organization that relies heavily on the party’s pro-choice, pro-freedom message.
As Jonathan Martin, Politico’s star senior political columnist, put it on Twitter/X:
The biggest gender gap of all. In the 2024 election, gender and education appear to be more salient factors than age, income and race as key demographic differences among and between voters, and among the most likely predictors of whom they support for president.
A bipartisan pair of veteran national pollsters and strategists — Democrat Celinda Lake and GOP consultant Amanda Iovino, collaborated on an analysis in the New York Times last week, that examined the matter with more nuance, concluding that the greatest gap in America’s divided politics is between women with a college degree and men without one:
“But broken up by gender and education, we see that the gaps are driven particularly by men without a college degree and women with a college degree, with an overall difference of 43 points.
We are truly looking at two different Americas when we dig into the views of men without college degrees and women with college degrees. They are at opposite ends of the spectrum politically and experience essentially separate economies, and therefore give priority to distinct sets of character traits and issues.”
This chart dramatically tells the story:
Lake and Iovino wrote:
“The story of this election could well be the gender gap between those Americans who went to college and those who didn’t. As the candidates consolidate support among their base, the divide between college-educated women and non-college-educated men seems almost impossible for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump to overcome. The big question for America going forward is, can these two groups be brought together after a campaign that has only driven them further apart?”
It’s a terrific and important piece. Read the whole thing.
Joe who? If Harris ends up losing the race, she can look back at a cringeworthy comment she made during her Oct. 8 appearance on “The View,” as a red flag data point that reflects a broader political dynamic that’s worked against her throughout the brief campaign.
When the co-hosts asked Harris whether she would have done anything differently as president than Joe Biden, she answered, “not a thing comes to mind.”
Oy.
Although the answer might earn the vice president points for loyalty among some Democratic insiders, her failure to put distance between herself and a near-historically unpopular president, not only on one talk show, but throughout her 100-day race, has been one of her greatest vulnerabilities.
Right before Biden quit the race on July 21, his job approval rating was deep underwater, according to the Gallup Poll, which found then that only 36 percent of Americans approved of his performance as president, compared with 58 percent who disapproved.
And while Biden’s disastrous debate against Trump the month before, which deepened concerns about his age and apparent mental decline, was the precipitating reason for him withdrawing, it is the low regard for his handling of the economy and immigration that may well have doomed his re-election even if he’d done well in the debate.
Right before Harris replaced him on the ticket, nearly 60 percent of Americans expressed disapproval of him over the economy, and nearly two-thirds expressed unhappiness with him over border policy.
It is common to hear Democrats on the South Coast, and in other blue-voting enclaves across the nation, express astonishment — “how can this race be so close?” — given Trump’s dictatorial designs, first-term record of chaos, and increasingly unhinged public behavior.
But veteran L.A.Times political writer David Lauter put the issue on its head in a smart piece the other day, saying it very well could be Republicans asking how it could be this close, given the kind of sweeping disapproval given to Harris’s boss Biden, and unceasing concern about high prices on groceries, gas and many other goods and services.
Lauter writes:
“Incumbent parties in wealthy democracies have been thrashed around the world over the last two years.
Angered by the worldwide bout of inflation that followed the COVID-19 public health emergency, and a huge increase in the number of migrants fleeing war, dictatorships and the impacts of climate change, voters in Europe, Asia and the Americas have turned against their political establishments. That’s been true for parties of the center-left, including Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in Canada, and the center-right, such as Britain’s Conservatives.
The same forces shape politics in the U.S.”
Lauter quoted a political scientist who studied models used in election forecasts, and discovered a crucial differentiator:
“Those that take polls into account have tended to show a slight edge for Harris. But models that ignore the specific candidates and look only at what political scientists call ‘fundamentals’ — such as the rate of economic growth and voters’ approval of the incumbent president — have generally pointed to a Republican win.
The takeaway is simple: A normal Republican would be planning a victory party right now.
Instead, former President Trump is locked in a toss-up race.”
So count your blessings, Democrats. Or something. Read the whole thing.
This is going to be a close one, sadly. It’s still beyond me how any woman could vote for a man who has been found liable for rape, bragged on numerous occasions about sexually assaulting women and boasts of killing Roe v Wade. Christian Nationalism accounts for some of this, such as the rabid anti-choice sentiment among some, but I honestly can’t explain how women could seriously support a self admitted sex abuser. Brainwashing is the only explanation. The fear and hate of the media that has been whipped up by that criminal has caused far too many to lose their sense of critical thinking. Our failed education system created fertile breeding ground for the gullible masses. We’re nowhere near “#1” and the closeness of this race proves it.
‘Christian Nationalism’? You are referring to people who believe in a man with nothing but a message of love and them being patriotic and loving their country and its exceptionalism, as being something negative. Your contempt for this country and whites and Christians in general has been chronicled here per nauseum. From attacking the free market systems to your support for illegals . Were you even born here? Please, do not start some of your tiring rants about Homophobia, Racism and misogyny as always.
Trump will win this by a wide margin and the reason is your candidate is NOT presidential material.
Chalf, how many times have you watched that video of Trump giving oral sex to a microphone?
LOL.
“Scum, evil, threat from within, rapists, bad hombres, cheaters, corrupt, poisoning th blood of our nation, animals, thugs…”
Yeah, Chalf, that’s a message of love alright.
“Not presidential material?” She’s won multiple elections, served as a DA, CA Attorney General, US Senator and Vice President. How is that not “presidential material?”
We prefer presidents who aren’t convicted felons, adjudicated rapists, sexual assaulters who brag about it, liars, frauds and old men who like to joke about killing journalists and making fun of disabled people. How are any of those “presidential material” to you?
I’ll wait for an answer, but I know you never will. It’s too hard a question for someone who thinks Trump has “nothing but a message of love.”
Agree.
While I think it will be closer than my rational mind can comprehend, I do believe Harris will win by a wider margin than is being projected. But we should all plan on MAGA outlets and people to state an early win regardless of facts.
And a win regardless of numbers in her favor. I don’t see the next week being a relaxing one. If she wins, there will undoubtedly be MAGA furor, hate and lies and I am truly concerned it could hit the streets, even in this town. Just yesterday on ND, I was shocked at some of the veiled threats of violence I was reading on a thread. People in our community bragging about their “support” of the 2nd Amendment, etc. Nationwide though, I fear will be far worse. The National Guard has already be called up in Oregon and Washington to prepare for tomorrow.
Now on the flip side, should he (and I’m gagging as I type this) win, we will have a completely different sort of disarray and chaos. Our great nation is facing a critical fork in the road. Let’s pray/hope/do whatever to ensure it goes the right way and we avoid another Jan 6 or worse.
Yeah, I mean the whole thing is a lose-lose for America. If Trump wins and he gives Elon what Elon wants then he will crash the economy, they will gut civil rights, they will continue to demonize anyone who dares to disagree with them and might try to jail political opponents, they will gut regulatory agencies, they will destroy the EPA and give carte blanche to the petroleum industry, etc., etc…..
If Harris wins then there will absolutely be right wing violence, no one can guess how bad and how long MAGA terrorism might go on.
Sadly, the second option is still the best.
And the demographics are interesting on this–I read an article this morning that reported the widest gap is between college educated women (voting for Harris) and non-college educated men (voting for Trump)
So, smart women vote for Harris and stupid men vote for Trump. Sounds about right.
Multiple news outlets ran video yesterday of Donald Trump pantomiming oral sex with a microphone. Such an odd thing to do, do any Trump supporters have an explanation?
Edhat didn’t like how I asked the question, so I’ve rephrased it.
I’d like to ask a serious question of the Trump supporters here: Do any of you truly believe that you can trust him to tell the truth about any topic, including what he had for lunch? Seriously. When he says things that are outright and verified lies (eg, Haitians are eating pets, FEMA never went to North Carolina, etc), do you truly believe that he is telling the truth or do you just not care that he lies so easily and so often?
Serious question for anyone who has a serious response. Seriously, I’ serious.
Look at you two sad guys all wrapped up about how this goes down. Debbie downers wanking back and forth. I bet you guys are real fun at a party. Jeez. Take it easy. Life will go on and we will all be fine whatever happens.
I’m not a trumper/con/maga/whatever the hell else you wanna insult half of the American people with.
Here’s an answer to your question. You could look in the mirror. What do I mean? A guy who lives in one of the most desirable and expensive places in the country and apparently doesn’t need to work for his living because he spends countless hours on a website commenting on this and that is asking why are so many American citizens supporting Trump. Hmm.
Maybe they, that other half of our country’s citizens, don’t all have it as easy as you? Maybe they’re working paycheck to paycheck, working multiple jobs, or just working folks period. Unlike you. Maybe they can’t afford the luxury of sitting in their chair all day in beautiful SB whilst going ‘higher than thou’ online everyday on others. Maybe they don’t feel the liberal side will help them as much as the trump side in their daily lives, especially economically.
Hey, I’m just guessing. But I’d bet that’s the reason, and my answer to your question.
BASIC says “he spends countless hours on a website commenting on this and that is asking why are so many American citizens supporting Trump”
Neither of those 2 things are true.
“Life will go on and we will all be fine whatever happens.” – Again, for the millionth time, yes, we white straight males will be fine, but it’s not about us, it’s about EVERYONE ELSE who doesn’t have that inherent luxury. Trump has already declared open season on women’s reproductive rights, the LGBQT community, immigrants (legal or not) and anyone who disagrees with him.
It’s really no surprise that you can’t wrap your head around that and don’t care because it won’t affect you.
BASIC – is it physically impossible for you to answer simple questions?
You seem to think you know everything about me lol. I still find it hilarious how you and others have so little ability to multi-task, that you honestly believe it takes me more than a couple minutes to type a comment. Must be tough to not have that basic ability.
Basic is so funny. He writes entire novels and posts ten times a day on the topic of how people post too much and therefore have no life. Poor Basic, literally and figuratively.
Typing with your index finger only does take a while LOL
Must be frustrating seeing how others manage their time.
BS. It was a question asked by Sac so I answered it.
BASIC – LOL you in no way “answered” my question. You went off on an unrelated tangent full of personal attacks coming nowhere close to the topic of my question, much less responding to it.
If you think you even came close to answering it, then you’re less capable than I gave you credit for. Fool me once……
I answered your question as best I could, not being a Trump supporter myself (which I know you can’t believe). Feel free to re-read it. It’s an attempt to explain why we are in such a close race, which you clearly can’t figure out the reasons for, hence your question. I understand why it’s close. And I unlike you and Alex, am not freaking out or losing sleep over it. You guys exemplify the radical left who are thinking doomsday if Trump wins. You’ve shown that. It will be ok either way. Sane folks realize that.
Since you don’t work and have nothing to do all day I will be expecting endless arguments and attacks against my reply here, but I’m not interested kid.
LOL, you didn’t address the question much less answer it. Now post ten more times.
Okay, Basic, let’s get to it–who have you/will you vote for?
Trump, Harris or Kennedy?
Come on big boy, tell the truth.
BASIC – ” It’s an attempt to explain why we are in such a close race, which you clearly can’t figure out the reasons for, hence your question.”
No, that’s not at all even close to what I asked. I asked, very specifically and very clearly, whether Trump supporters truly believe what he says or whether they know he’s lying all the time but just don’t care.
Very simple question that you, once again, failed to answer, but instead used as another chance to rant against me and blather more hypocrisy about posting frequency. Deflection is your tool and you wield it like a pro. Not a great attribute, but I’ll give you props for that.
You failed, miserably I might add, at answering a very simple question.
The Biden economy has been a huge success even while American media–including Jerry–have continually obscured that fact.
Cast your Votum….Vote Hard, Vote Often!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Votum
Lat night Trump said, “100 percent of the net jobs created in the last year have gone to migrants, not to people.”
HOOOOOOLY FUCK
Okay Trumpies. Do you believe this?
Yes or No?
Oh, and a quick follow up question, do you believe that migrants are not people
Just over twenty-four hours after important content in this article is posted, there are only 5 replies. Four were within a few hours of the initial comment being posted. Maybe I’m wrong, but could it be that people are getting bored with the continual blathering by 4 of the 5? Election numbers that will affect our city and country will be out soon. Read ’em & weep.
DOULIE – looks like you’re commenting on the wrong thread again. There are 21 comments here as of now. There are no real “replies” to the article as it’s not posing a question so much as it is raising a concern, one to which all the comments here, other than yours (once again, surprise surprise) are relevant and applicable.
It’s going to be a tough week for you.
Eh, I win either way. If Trump is elected his 2017 tax cuts which were for the top earners in the US (me), won’t sunset.
If Trump loses then I get to watch a bunch of MAGA weirdos try and launch a civil war and get killed/go to jail. So, highly entertaining.
ALEX – lucky you! I have a daughter and 2 sisters whose freedoms I’m worried about. I also have LGBQT family members and friends. I don’t think it’s going to be too entertaining for them.
Yeah, same. Gay family, daughter, etc., etc…I just like to troll the MAGAts
it IS fun, isn’t it? Starting to get depressing though as it really become apparent how poorly educated and simple so many of them are. Could you imagine if some of these people held important jobs, like doctors or something? Makes me shudder!
Not true, I’m set and capable of dealing with the BS Harris provides.
How are you set and capable? Got your crow pie all ready to eat? Whoof, that’s a lot of food!
CHALF – “You are referring to people who believe in a man with nothing but a message of love”
Holy fuck that’s the dumbest thing I’ve seen/heard in a long time and that’s saying something. Sorry, but to sincerely think Trump has only love in his heart is proof positive of a complete and total lack of any critical thinking or understanding of the English language.
Have fun watching Nevada turn blue this week!
“Amen basic! Debating this shut in is an exercise in futility.” – Only if you have zero reasoning abilities and lack even a shred of intellectual and moral honesty.
Neither of you have come close to anything even resembling a “debate,” just deflection, lies, insults, and a complete and total lack of reasoning and comprehension skills.