YetiBy an edhat reader
Does anyone else find it interesting that Montecito had mandatory evacuations yesterday for a complete non-event and now, it is predicted that we will have 4-5 hours of thunderstorms Early Thursday morning and we have not heard a peep from the County OEM? Isn’t this storm situation stacking up like when we got hit on 1/9/18 ?? Thunderstorm activity can change rapidly and with 4-5 hours of activity predicted, isn’t this a pretty high risk situation that they are ignoring?
The predictions for yesterday’s storms were much more intense than the predictions for tonight’s storms. For the 1st 2 storms this week, the forecasts were for more rain than occurred. They have to be careful about crying “wolf” too many times because with each nonevent, they know fewer people will heed the evacuation warnings. The conditions that caused the damage last year was a 100-yr rain intensity on a recently burned watershed. Now that the watershed has recovered it would take a larger event to cause the same damage. The probability of having 2 100-yr rain events in successive years is very small, 0.01×0.01 or 0.0001. There are a lot of assumptions and nuances associated with this but to sum it up, they are using good judgment and being careful about being overly cautious to the point where people stop listening to them.
Many of us have thought about this. Most of us rather be non control of our own destiny. I would strongly advise the OP to follow their own feelings and get to a safe place. No need to suffer anxiety. No guarantees.
LA news keeps talking about an atmospheric river which can bring unpredictable downpours. I think I would plan on leaving regardless of what the county says…they didn’t exactly get it right last time.
Actually, now that we’ve had the 100 year rain event, the chances of having it again are .01
(Like flipping a penny, once you’ve gotten heads 10 times in a row…the chance of getting it 11 is…still 50/50)
The watershed hasn’t recovered, they estimate it will take 3-5 years for that. The 1969 flood with debris damage was 5 years after the Coyote Fire (1964). Warnings are based on the best information available and yesterday it didn’t pour as hard as anticipated. The County is “damned if they do and damned if they don’t” as far as warnings go. They gave strict warnings last year for “above 192” and about 10-15% heeded the evac orders. Yesterday a deputy said door to door warning people got a “we’re staying” response. The County was blamed last year for not making the whole Montecito below 192 mandatory instead of voluntary, like that would have had any more moving out than above 192. Last Jan they gave flash flood warnings and anyone by a creek shouldn’t have needed someone to tell them to go or stay. Just go! Some were “monitoring the creek” by them. Flash floors come on like a freight train, w/o warning. There is such a thing as personal responsibility.
When I lived in northern Virginia, the first day of Spring was always welcomed by the ‘worst snow storm in 30 years’, according to those who had grown up and lived there all their lives… EVERY YEAR!!! So, I figure that at any time in the future we could have another 100 year rain event. Mother Nature always seems to have something waiting up her sleeves to surprise us.
I definitely agree that there is no way that the watershed has recovered in just one year. And with the ground saturated, trees and boulders can easily move, and/or come down, along with more mud. Trees coming down is common, especially in the Montecito area. There is also a lot of wind supposed to be connected to the storm which can easily cause trees to go down, with the ground soaked as it now is.
NANNY STATE can’t predict 1″ or 3″ of Mother Natures effects… Go figure- Call Hanna Beth Jackson or maybe Das Williams can give you some direction… Perhaps Mayor Murillo…
I would think Montecitoans are now pretty sensitive about rainfall and its potential effects and that they would evacuate if it started raining really hard, be it haphazardly. The County should not worry about a wrong prediction – elevate this situation back to at least an advisory type of evacuation notice. It is going to rain more from this storm than the one yesterday.
Do you have their numbers?
Flicka, thanks for background info after the Coyote Fire. Thunderstorms hit after 2am tonight. I bet a short time after that my iPhone goes off calling for evacuations…
Purplebee, at some point you do your homework and make your own choices. Too many alerts, not enough alerts, what do I do oh me oh my? Stop relying on others to tell you what to do. And then take responsibility for your own – EDUCATED – choices.
If one is on Aware and Prepare we were informed at 5:57 pm yesterday that this storm is forecast to have rates below the debris flow thresholds. It was also on the news then and there again tonight with the caveat that we will be informed of any changes.
There have been 2 erroneous posts regarding 100 year storms. I worked on several projects at the County where we used those factors in design. So to clear it up it means that there is a 1 in a hundred chance of having one in a given year. So we could, like SLO County had one in 1964 and 1973, even have 2 in the same year. We had them in 1969, 1995 and of course last year. The factors are too numerous to go into here but vary considerably by area.
Hey weather people. You’ve proven incredibly unreliable. 100% rain all day we are told. Nope! Another big goose egg. Just admit it. Running unreliable math models to predict rain doesn’t work. It’s absolutely insane how perverse it’s gotten. BTW – How do you EVER quote 100% chance of rain and then change that? I’m sure glad the sun will rise 100% of the time tomorrow and you’re not in charge of it.
Northern California, Shasta, and the Sierras are getting hammered right now based on the Doppler radar. It’s good for us that that storm intensity passed us to the north otherwise we’d have super bad problems.
The amount of rain that falls and the amount of time it rains are not the same predictor for the debris flow and flood hazards. It could rain really hard for 15 minutes like it did last year triggering the slide, or it could rain more lightly for days on end. It’s the amount of rain per minute that is the issue I think?
“Flood Watch. National Weather Service. 242 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019—Thomas, Sherpa, and Whittier burn scars–southern Santa Barbara County * Until 9 am PST this morning. Peak rainfall rates from 0.75 to 1.00 inch per hour.” KEYT is saying it just NOW turned into” flash flood warning” due to heavy downpours especially in Montecito, live on air at 4:45am Thursday.
CHP: 4:27 AM. Mud/Dirt/Rock. Sr154 / Painted Cave Rd.JEO. Santa Barbara.
KEYT reporter on scene is excellent, she’s reporting from Montecito right now and says she heard “thumping” in creek upper area of Montecito. She’s brave to be there during a Flash Flood Warning – Senerey de los Santos.
Rob Lewin on KEYT now “We will have debris flows. Get to high ground now, or go to 2nd floor, or go to center of house right now. This is no time to panic.” He said it won’t be as bad as last year. No evacuations. No reports of flooding in low-lying areas yet (5:04a.m.). “Shelter-in-place, don’t get on road right now” he said. He doesn’t want anyone driving through standing water, “don’t want any cars washed away in flooded streets”.
“Hearing pops at raging Montecito Creek upper Montectio”, says Alex Biston, KEYT. Rain 1″ per hour predicted. Tracy Lehr, KEYT, reporting from #154, lots of heavy rain right now, she says. 5:17a.m.
Unfortunately I do not have any other way of getting the news about rain, flooding, warnings, watches, slides, debris flow, evacuation or shelter in place, etc… other than KEYT and it’s sister stations. I cannot decide what to do when the information provided is inaccurate. I am up at this much too early hour to hear what they have to say now. Kelsey is really upset. She is telling people to go as high as they can, and then shelter in place. She is talking with that tone in her voice, and yet at the same time she sounds like she is trying not to cry. Poor Tracy Lehr is standing out on SMP getting rained on and looking like a drowned rat. Again, this storm was not supposed to be that bad, but here we are.
Unfortunately I do not have any other way of getting the news about rain, flooding, warnings, watches, slides, debris flow, evacuation or shelter in place, etc… other than KEYT and it’s sister stations. I cannot decide what to do when the information provided is inaccurate. I am up at this much too early hour to hear what they have to say now. Kelsey is really upset. She is telling people to go as high as they can, and then shelter in place. She is talking with that tone in her voice, and yet at the same time she sounds like she is trying not to cry. Poor Tracy Lehr is standing out on SMP getting rained on and looking like a drowned rat. Again, this storm was not supposed to be that bad, but yet here we are.
“No evacuations anywhere in S.B. county”, KEYT. 5:28a.m.
Heavy rain is in foothills and mountains, not much in low-lying areas. More heavy rain will be passing over Montecito soon, KEYT, 5:40a.m. Heads up Montecito.
Hwy 101 at La Conchita, flash flooding right now on 101, KEYT reporting. Will 101 be closed? CHP: Charlotte Ln/SR192. Santa Barbara. Traffic Hazard. 5:56 AM. 5:50 AM. TREE DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING.
“Flash Flood Warning NOW”. Richard Thompson, National Weather Service on KEYT. Flood Warning might be over at 7:30a.m but “may be extended”. He said pretty impressive rain rates so far today, but not as bad as last year.
As Brittany Spears would say …. “Oops I did it again ! “. Another missed call on the weather by OES….. they evacuated Montecito and repopulate without thinking that the intensity of this last storm of the system would have the possibility of coming down as hard as it is…… now their message is … “. It’s too late for the public to get out with the flash flood warnings so just shelter in place and hope for the best “ …. Come on ….. you get paid to do better than this. Obviously, it’s up to each of us to decide to play it safe and get to a safer location in the end.
CHP: 6:27 AMRoadway Flooding. Sr154 / San Antonio Creek Rd. Santa Barbara.
#154 at Windy Gap—CHP: CITIZEN REPORT OF TC AND SLIDE.
Mission creek is running like a mini Colorado river this morning. It looks like San Marcos Pass picked up 5” of rain in the last 12 hrs. Several locations on the ridge exceeded 0.75”/hr during the night. Did anyone get a middle of the night alert on their phone?
National weather service is your best predictor of what’s going to be coming our way .
Great reporting and updating. Thank you, everyone, for the information. I enjoy being informed. News is good. KEYT right on top of the story! Good job all of you, in studio and in field. Flash Flood Warning has now expired, just Flash Flood Watch now until 9am. Thank you County Flood Control. Creeks good and handling the downpour. Kelsey Gerckins – KEYT, you put everything in perspective (rate rates now vs last year) and you made everything better with your balanced reporting!
CHP: Middle Rd / Mesa Rd – Santa Barbara. 7:19 AM. VEH – TALLER VEH COULD PULL IT DOWN. 7:18 AM. LINES DOWN – HANGING ACROSS LNS – CAUGHT ON RPS’. 7:18 AM. Traffic Hazard.
To complainers about the local warning system; they are doing their best with the information they have. If anyone wants notice of an absolute exact prediction of what will happen with the weather I suggest going to church and asking God.
Rainfall totals, constantly updating:
http://rain.cosbpw.net/home.php
OEM said nothing of the sort. Your post is extremely inaccurate.
Actually it was a single storm system that hit the state. We just caught the southern section of it while the more intense core passed through north of us and dropped substantial precipitation in the Bay Area, Central Valley, Tahoe and etc. The 8km Western Pacific IR animation at NOAA showed it clearly.
Roadway flooding per CHP: 101/Evans Santa Barbara. 7:46a.m. AND TRAFFIC HAZARD #192/AshleyRd.S.B. – Water across lanes, storm drain clogged poss.
I love that site. It also shows that all our reservoirs are rising with the runoff now. Hopefully we’re turning the corner of busting the drought in our area.
7:00 am update Cachuma is @ 32.3 % and we’re at 52 % of our normal water year .
Yes, they did. On an alert somewhere around 5:00, he WAS quoted as saying something along these lines – it’s too late to drive out during this flood warning. Stay where you are.
Yes, we got the blaring alert around 4:50 a.m.
It’s not over yet…
The watershed has not “recovered”. Look at the debris flow photos of 1969 from the 1964 Coyote Fire as an example of what can happen. Having said that, the County is now using formulas of inches per hour (or minute) to judge when a flow might happen. They are predicting the threshold won’t be reached with tonight’s storm. We all hope they are right. Some concerned people in Montecito have “self evacuated”. We would too, if we had little kids.