New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening title=
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening
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NWS radar of Saturday evening's storm
Update by National Weather Service
January 6, 2018
 
Santa Barbara County and the National Weather Service (NWS) are monitoring a storm forecast to arrive tonight (January 6, 2019). The NWS predicts tonight’s storm to be less intense than yesterday’s storm and rainfall intensities are predicted to be below debris flow thresholds for SB County burn areas. NWS and OEM will continue to monitor the weather and will advise the public if the situation changes.

Update by National Weather Service
4:00 p.m., January 5, 2018

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM PST FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY

At 246 PM PST, Doppler radar and automated gauges indicated moderate to heavy rainfall across western and central Santa Barbara County, mainly west of Goleta. The heaviest line of storms was observed just west of Gaviota, with an automated rain gauge at Rancho San Julian reporting 0.64 inches in 30 minutes between 220 pm and 250 pm. This line of storms, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, will continue to spread eastward across the Santa Ynez mountains and Santa Barbara South Coast, including the Thomas and Whittier burn areas, through the afternoon and early evening hours. Peak rainfall rates of 0.30 to 0.50 inches per hour will be common, with isolated rates up to 0.75 inches per hour possible under heavier rain bands or thunderstorms. In addition, the convective environment will continue to bring a threat of brief heavy rain bursts in a 15 to 30 minute period. 

Roadway flooding will be likely across portions of the advisory area this afternoon and early evening, along with a threat of rockslides and mudslides on canyon roadways. This threat of flooding and rockslides will include Highways 101 and 154. In addition, there is the potential for localized and shallow mud and debris flows in the Thomas and Whittier burn areas this afternoon into this evening. 

Some locations that could experience flooding include...Santa Maria...Santa Barbara...Lompoc...Montecito...Santa Ynez...Carpinteria...Solvang...Vandenberg Air Force Base... Summerland... Goleta... Guadalupe... Buellton... as well as the Thomas and Whittier burn areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Move away from recently burned areas. Minor flooding of creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep terrain,
especially in and around these areas.


Update by National Weather Service
1: 45 p.m., January 5, 2018

A National Weather Service FLOOD ADVISORY in effect for SB County until 8pm tonight. Stay alert to changing conditions. NWS & OEM will continue to monitor the storm. A line of strong storms is moving thru the county at around 15 miles per hour. This line of storms will bring a threat of brief heavy downpours capable of localized flooding, wind gusts to 50 mph capable of downing trees and branches, along with small hail. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across the Central Coast. Residents in and around recent burn areas should stay alert to changing conditions. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.


Source: National Weather Service
January 3, 2018

The National Weather Service (NWS) indicates a moderate rain event with a chance of heavy downpours from Saturday afternoon thru Sunday morning (January 5-6, 2019).

Rainfall rates are not predicted to be high enough to trigger debris flows in and around recent burn areas in Santa Barbara County and evacuations are not anticipated.

The NWS and the Office of Emergency Management will continue to monitor the situation and will notify the public if the forecast changes.

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mtndriver Jan 07, 2019 08:14 AM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

1.7 inches here as of 8 this morning, added to an inch on Saturday's storm. Great for the plants! Looks from the County map like the heaviest rain was here in the front country, not much that would run off into the river and Cachuma.

a-1553133037 Jan 07, 2019 01:36 AM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

1:35 AM Monday and this storm isn't sound "less intense" to me at all. I sure hope everyone is safe in Montecito and other flood areas.

Shasta Guy Jan 06, 2019 10:35 AM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

East beach, thanks for your experienced observations. I missed all the action both north and south. I was returning from Northern California yesterday so not only did I miss all the weather action here but I also missed the wonderful snowfall there as well.

EastBeach Jan 05, 2019 05:22 PM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

I was just finishing a hike down upper San Ysidro Canyon and into Buena Vista Canyon via the Edison Catway when the 1:48pm Aware & Prepare alert hit my phone. The wind was blowing ~30 mph up at the saddle with scattered sprinkles. Nothing like a flood alert to get you moving along (almost as good as the thought of a hot bowl of chili and corn bread). Lower Buena Vista looks to be in better condition than San Ysidro which still has smooth layers of sediment in the creek and large bare patches on the canyon slopes.

EastBeach Jan 06, 2019 12:37 AM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

@PSTARR - I disagree. We checked the latest NWS report and interactive radar just before leaving so our baseline was we had plenty of margin to complete the hike well before the rain came. And we knew the condition of both creeks and their trails as we've been hiking them the past six weeks (mostly to work off Holiday calories). We are a group of experienced hikers and backpackers who have been doing this for decades and none of us are risk takers. Some of us grew up on these trails. Knowing that weather can change, we're mindful to monitor conditions as we hike and factor in terrain/mileage ahead (this is important because if you had been out there with us, you would have seen there were no dark clouds on the crest and radar was good). We know the local trails well but when we're backpacking in new places, we prepare (WX, maps, compasses, GPS, satellite messengers, etc.). When we hike slot canyons, we always do the mandatory flash flood check (our front-country creeks don't flood in quite the same way as they do in the Great Basin if that's what you were thinking about). We're human so aren't mistake-proof but we know the drill. Finally, as I stated in my first post, by the time the first text alert came at 1:45 pm we were almost done with the hike. It didn't start noticeably sprinkling on East Valley until *hours* later. All in all a safe and enjoyable hike.

pstarSR Jan 05, 2019 06:59 PM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

interesting choice to hike a front country trail, with flood warnings for a storm that was planned to pass through at the very time you were hiking. should rethink your plans next time, imagine if you got lost, injured or stuck and the storm arrived as scheduled.

a-1553133037 Jan 05, 2019 05:10 PM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

Here's the windy.com pic of SB: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://www.windy.com/34.422/-119.703?33.383,-119.703,7,m:eCxacPE

a-1553133037 Jan 05, 2019 05:05 PM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

SB Emergeny Ops/Aware & Prepare, 3:54 p.m. with a radar map: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Santa Barbara CA- 311 PM PST Sat Jan 5 2019 ...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM PST FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY... At 246 PM PST, Doppler radar and automated gauges indicated moderate to heavy rainfall across western and central Santa Barbara County, mainly west of Goleta. The heaviest line of storms was observed just west of Gaviota, with an automated rain gauge at Rancho San Julian reporting 0.64 inches in 30 minutes between 220 pm and 250 pm. This line of storms, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, will continue to spread eastward across the Santa Ynez mountains and Santa Barbara South Coast, including the Thomas and Whittier burn areas, through the afternoon and early evening hours. Peak rainfall rates of 0.30 to 0.50 inches per hour will be common, with isolated rates up to 0.75 inches per hour possible under heavier rain bands or thunderstorms. In addition, the convective environment will continue to bring a threat of brief heavy rain bursts in a 15 to 30 minute period. Roadway flooding will be likely across portions of the advisory area this afternoon and early evening, along with a threat of rockslides and mudslides on canyon roadways. This threat of flooding and rockslides will include Highways 101 and 154. In addition, there is the potential for localized and shallow mud and debris flows in the Thomas and Whittier burn areas this afternoon into this evening. Some locations that could experience flooding include... Santa Maria...Santa Barbara...Lompoc...Montecito...Santa Ynez... Carpinteria...Solvang...Vandenberg Air Force Base...Summerland... Goleta...Guadalupe...Buellton...as well as the Thomas and Whittier burn areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Move away from recently burned areas. Minor flooding of creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep terrain, especially in and around these areas.

a-1553133037 Jan 05, 2019 05:03 PM
New Storm to Arrive Sunday Evening

Heavy rain for about 40 minutes! Street lights went on 40 minutes early. It's so lovely, especially the sound! Here's the site for live rain totals and a couple of stream flows: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://rain.cosbpw.net/home.php

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