Major Holiday Storm to Soak Santa Barbara County, Central Coast Next Week

Central Coast to Experience Storm Tuesday–Thursday; Light rain possible Sunday–Monday

The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting a major storm for Santa Barbara County and the Central Coast from Tuesday, December 23 through Thursday, December 25, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas, dangerous flash flooding, and strong winds. Light rain is possible ahead of the main system on Sunday, December 21 and Monday, December 22.

Sunday–Monday (Dec. 21–22): Increasing clouds area-wide. A slight chance (20–30%) of light rain over northwestern San Luis Obispo County; most other areas stay dry with totals under a tenth of an inch. Highs dip 2–4 degrees Sunday, then hold steady Monday, remaining above normal for the season.

Tuesday (Dec. 23): Confidence is lower on exact timing, but rain chances ramp up, especially on the Central Coast in the morning (60–70%). By afternoon, rain becomes a near certainty across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, spreading regionwide by evening. Southerly flow favors higher totals and faster rates on south-facing slopes. From dawn Tuesday to dawn Wednesday, most areas could see around 1 inch, with 2 inches possible on south-facing foothills and mountains. Snow levels near 8,000 feet.

Wednesday (Dec. 24): Highest confidence and the peak of the event. NWS notes, “Wednesday should feature the most rainfall and the highest rainfall rate. It should rain all day across all of the area.” Expect 1–2 inches along the coasts and valleys, and 2–4 inches in the foothills and mountains. Interior areas likely around 1 to 1.5 inches. Snow levels remain near 8,000 feet.

Thursday/Christmas Day (Dec. 25): Forecast confidence drops. Many models push the bulk of the rain out by morning, with lighter showers in the afternoon. There’s still potential for an additional 1–2 inches, though that may be on the high side. Colder air arrives behind the system, dropping snow levels to around 7,000 feet late day and near 6,000 feet overnight. Highs along the coast and in the valleys will be in the lower to mid 60s.

Model uncertainty

As of Friday, December 19, the NWS forecast states “deterministic, ensemble based and AI based” models had matched closely until recently, but “annoyingly quite a bit of disagreement has now shown up,” especially for Tuesday and Thursday timing.

Some solutions (notably the GFS and many of its ensembles) slow the atmospheric river’s arrival Tuesday, which would lead to a much drier day before the main rain band arrives. Confidence is highest for a wet, widespread Wednesday.

Hazards

Flooding and dangerous flash flooding in low-lying and poor-drainage areas, with enhanced risk on south-facing slopes during heavier bands.
Strong winds accompanying the front could down branches and create difficult driving, especially over passes and along the coast.
Rapidly changing conditions under the heaviest rain bands; never drive through flooded roadways.

Santa Barbara County Officials stated evacuations are NOT being issued as pf Friday afternoon. If you are concerned that this storm may cause unsafe conditions to your home, leave the area before rain starts. Do not wait for an official evacuation notification to leave.

Public safety officials are monitoring the incoming storm and will continue to assess if protective actions, such as an evacuation warning, evacuation order, or shelter in place are necessary.

Looking ahead

Model agreement falls off after Thursday, but there is potential for additional rain next Friday through Sunday.

What to do IF National Weather Service issues a:

Flash Flood Warning:
- Stay off roads and move away from waterways.
- If near a recent burn area, quickly move to the innermost room of your home or to higher ground such as a second floor.
Tornado Warning:
- Quickly move to an innermost room on the bottom floor and stay away from windows.

Preparedness Tips Before the Rain:

MONITOR the weather.
PREPARE and protect your home now.
PLAN on how to get out and where you might go.
Charge important electronic devices and check flashlights in case an unexpected power outage occurs.
Secure outdoor belongings that could be impacted by strong winds, such as umbrellas, sports equipment, and outdoor furniture.
Prepare outdoor pets and animals.
Be aware of and check in on others that might not be prepared for severe weather or able to react accordingly – especially the elderly and young children.

During Rain:

In general, stay away from rivers, creeks, streams, recent wildfire burn areas, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Those living in areas prone to flooding and recent burn areas should stay aware of changing conditions.
Remain vigilant and monitor weather as conditions can change quickly.
If you feel unsafe during the rainfall, shelter in place in your home by gathering your family and pets in the innermost room of your house, preferably on the top floor if you live in a multi-story home. 
Do not attempt to drive at night or while it is raining, as roads may be damaged or your car may be swept away by moving water or debris. 
NEVER drive, swim, or walk into floodwaters. Turn around, don’t drown!
Beaches, bluffs and the Harbor area may be impacted. This storm may trigger erosion along the bluffs throughout the county, including Isla Vista. Residents and visitors are advised to stay away from beach areas.
Roads along recent wildfire burn areas, including Highway 166, and those roads impacted during previous storms may experience flooding, mud and rock slides. Communities along these roads may become isolated.
If you hear thunder, go indoors. Wait 30 minutes after the storm has passed before resuming outdoor activities.

Stay informed

Check the latest National Weather Service forecasts and updates before traveling, and consider preparing for heavy rain by clearing drains and gutters, securing outdoor items, and planning extra travel time.

Detailed weather forecasts are available at https://www.weather.gov/lox/.