Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

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Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara
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Update by the Office of Emergency Management
November 29, 2018

NWS indicates that there is a potential for rapidly developing heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms over SB Co through 5pm tonight. Residents near creeks and streams below burn areas should maintain awareness of their surroundings and take action to stay safe if necessary. OEM continues to monitor this event.


Update by the Office of Emergency Management
November 27, 2018

Santa Barbara County & the National Weather Service (NWS) continue to monitor the storm forecast to arrive this Wednesday, November 28, 2018. The storm is predicted to yield up to 2 inches of total rainfall, but STAY BENEATH the rainfall intensities required to trigger debris flows in the burn areas of Santa Barbara County. 

We will continue to monitor the weather and will advise the public if the situation changes.  For information about storm readiness, visit readysbc.org and be sure to tell your friends to sign up for these alerts!


Source: Office of Emergency Management
November 25, 2018

Santa Barbara County & the National Weather Service (NWS) are monitoring a storm forecast to arrive this Wednesday, November 28, 2018. The storm is predicted to be worse than last week’s storm but at this time, the NWS forecast does NOT indicate rainfall intensities likely to cause debris flows in & around recent burn areas in SB County. We will continue to monitor the weather & will advise the public if the situation changes. Thank you.

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a-1544479263 Nov 29, 2018 03:15 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Hey OEM, don't use words like "required" to trigger debris flows, instead say "likely" to trigger debris flows. Definitives are asking for a lawsuit, should a debris flow occur below "required" levels.

a-1544479263 Nov 29, 2018 03:03 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Will we get any more squalls tonight? That one was rugged with sideways rain. Glad to see a bit of sunshine. Celebration for the rain, though!

John Wiley Nov 29, 2018 02:56 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Just a whiff of breeze and sunshine beneath broken clouds 101@154 right now. Quite a change from sideways heavy rain here half an hour ago.

John Wiley Nov 29, 2018 02:51 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

SCE reporting ~500 customers on San Antonio Rd.; ~3k around Lauro Cyn Reservoir; 25 around Pueblo & Chapala downtown; ~37 around Ortega Ridge Rd. near Summerland.

a-1544479263 Nov 29, 2018 01:34 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

For those who doubt every storm, and for those who like to watch the totals, here's SB County's live rainfall total. /////////////////////////////////////////////////// http://rain.cosbpw.net/home.php

a-1544479263 Nov 29, 2018 01:33 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Indeed, even if rainfall does not reach threshold of intensity to cause a debris flow, this rain is going to make a difficult mess (imagine PCH in the Woolsey fire burn scar!) The agency's name IS *Emergency* Management... Fire, police, sheriff and CHP are all out there working. My fingers are crossed for no boulders or street-closing mud.

Shasta Guy Nov 28, 2018 09:55 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

With what happened earlier this year some anxiety and fear is understandable. The best defense is knowledge of the storm. So far there is no indication of concentrated rainfall in our area. This is a storm to enjoy as the earth gets replenished with much needed moisture. I always check the Doppler radar out of Vandenberg: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vbx&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no I also check the 8km IR image of the pacific to what’s coming our way several hours out: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/ft.jpg Things look pretty tame for this storm.

Luvaduck Nov 28, 2018 04:09 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Looks like I worded it ambivalently. I wasn't being callous or suggesting that living "downstream" from an area beneath one burned out recently wasn't a legitimate fear. I was saying that constant worry is no way to live and it's destructive with or without it coming true so do whatever you need to to get out of that state of mind.

Luvaduck Nov 28, 2018 10:16 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

We need rain. Rain happens or doesn't. If you fear for your life, leave for the duration. If that fear is disrupting your life long-term,move someplace you consider safer even if you have to walk. T is no place that doesn't have natural disaster some time or other, but living in fear is toxic.

Flicka Nov 28, 2018 09:09 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Easy to say not to have fear. Not relevant to people who were adversely affected by the January debris storm. Why shouldn't they be scared? Too bad more didn't "fear" the flash flood warning that caused the debris flow. Could have saved lives.

a-1544479263 Nov 29, 2018 03:07 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

PITMIX - That heavy rainfall was accurately predicted. They recommended that people evacuate. But that order was not mandatory and, of course, they used the wrong map. But the intense rainfall was predicted.

PitMix Nov 28, 2018 02:51 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

I'm not exactly afraid but I also feel a tinge of anxiety when they talk about storms now. The disruption in my life was minimal but not so for many other people. They didn't predict the 15 mins of intense rain that led to all of the destruction last year, so how much trust can we put in their predictions now? Definitely something to think about. If you live below a burn area maybe you have to leave every time they predict any kind of decent storm?

SBZZ Nov 28, 2018 08:19 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Better OEM thank you. Still, this storm has the potential to generate some high intensity rainfall when the front comes through Thur AM - stay vigilant people!

Flicka Nov 27, 2018 04:04 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

I think there is only fear if you live in the debris flow areas. They have a right to "fear". Exactly what is a "workable strategy" going forward? Maybe scrap the fear and just see what happens.

a-1544479263 Nov 29, 2018 11:46 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Bob, I know you know this. Per Wikipedia "As of January 21, the mudflows caused at least 21 confirmed deaths, mostly in the Montecito area, and an additional two people were reported as missing in Montecito." RIP, Jack Cantin and Lydia Taylor-Sutthithepa. /////////////////////////// https://www.independent.com/news/2018/jan/18/remembering-victims-montecito-mudslides/ /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// https://www.independent.com/news/2018/jan/18/death-toll-approaches-23-worst-disaster-santa-barb/

Bob Wilson Nov 29, 2018 08:18 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

A-1543507822: Your comment is 100% accurate. 19 people are dead because they lived in OEM's "voluntary evacuation zone". Those people SHOULD have been given mandatory orders to leave. Instead, OEM stupidly made the evacuation demarcation line at Highway 192, which had NOTHING to do with the path of the debris flow. The longer the County refuses to admit that horrible mistake, the longer the community will distrust anything them.

a-1544479263 Nov 28, 2018 02:16 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Because 23 people died (some who may have been saved if the County had used a flood map rather than a fire map for evacuations), the County will be “overreacting” for the foreseeable future.

mtndriver Nov 28, 2018 08:56 AM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

Flicka, my feeling is that being fearful of every storm is not an attitude that is going to be helpful, healthy, useful long term--that's what I meant by workable. I'm not disregarding the trauma people are still experiencing. But the fact is, we need rain, lots of rain. May it come steadily, not in giant bursts. Responding to every storm as if it was a potential disaster is not a healthy way to live our lives.

a-1544479263 Nov 26, 2018 12:48 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

NWS Los Angeles@NWSLosAngeles. "Preliminary rain totals are generally expected to range between 0.50 and 2.00 inches across SW Calif for Wed/Thu storm system. Local amounts up to 3.00 inches are possible in the foothills of northwest SLO county. "

SBZZ Nov 26, 2018 12:45 PM
Increased Storm Advisories for Santa Barbara

You beat me to it MACPU - amazing that an advisory agency like the OEM would use language as vague as "worse". How about wetter, more rain, or perhaps substantially more rain?

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