Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier title=
Public Health Director Van Do-Reynoso Provides COVID-19 Update on Friday
22 Comments
Reads 5253

By edhat staff

Santa Barbara County remains "solidly" in the red tier with case rates preventing fewer restrictions, mostly due to gatherings.

During a press conference on Friday afternoon, Public Health Director Van Do-Reynoso stated the case rate metric is holding the county back from moving into the less restrictive orange tier. Santa Barbara County's case rate is currently at 4.6 and needs to be at 3.9 or lower to qualify for orange. All other metrics meet the necessary requirements.

The majority of positive cases are due to "community close contact transmission," most of which end up being gatherings.

While officials were proud of Isla Vista community members for safely celebrating Halloween, they expressed their frustration with high school students in Orcutt who gathered at a party and spread COVID-19 shutting down one school. 

There are two known COVID-19 positive students which prompted St. Joseph's High School to close in-person learning for two weeks and Righetti High School sports practices to temporarily cease. 

The Public Health Department will release guidelines next week on how to safely celebrate Thanksgiving.

The Numbers

The total COVID-19 cases within the county are now at 10,128 with 136 still active. Of those, there are 12 hospitalizations including two in the intensive care unit (ICU)

This week there have been 3 deaths related to COVID-19.

One individual was over 70 years old, did not have underlying medical conditions and resided in the unincorporated area of Sisquoc, Casmalia, Garey, Cuyama, New Cuyama, and the City of Guadalupe. The death was not associated with an outbreak in a congregate facility.

One individual was between the ages of 50-69, had underlying medical conditions and lived in the region of the City of Santa Barbara and unincorporated area of Mission Canyon. The death was not associated with an outbreak at a congregate living facility.

One individual was a resident of the community of Orcutt, was over 70 years old with underlying medical conditions and was associated with an outbreak at a congregate facility.

 

The total death count is now 131.

More data can be found at https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/

Login to add Comments

22 Comments

Show Comments
ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 11, 2020 01:43 AM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

FYI: We are 7.6 case rate today, and 7.5 yesterday. I think LETMEGO had similar numbers the other day. Purple is in our future.

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 13, 2020 05:52 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

DUKE: There is a delay in the reporting, so the County Health Numbers are not necessarily wrong---but the numbers are really, really, old and therefore totally misleading. The numbers are two weeks old, to be precise, and here’s why. Let’s take the 4.3 number updated this week on 11-10-2020. That number is a 7-day average, with a 7-day lag. This means the 4.3 you’re referring to is the 7-day average for the week of 10-25-2020 to 10-31-2020. Want proof? Download the Excel file from the State of California and read the dates for yourself (see link below). If you want to know where we are today, you need to crunch the numbers yourself, like Letmego and I do. I can explain how to do that. Just ask. The benefit of doing it yourself is that you’re two weeks ahead of the dashboard. For instance, today we have a 7-day average case rate of 9.0, which is purple tier. (https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyMonitoringOverview.aspx).

letmego Nov 11, 2020 09:55 AM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

I can't speak for CSF, but what I do is take the daily cases and calculate the 7 day average case rate myself. Now, a few caveats:
1. I do it both for the full county and for South Coast Only (Gaviota to Carpinteria).
2. I am estimating the population of the south coast to the best of my ability
3. I am calculating the CURRENT case rate (and the "7 day lag" case rate).

The current case rate (without the 7 day lag) is higher than the one on the county page, because our cases are going up.

The South Coast Case Rate is higher than the county as a whole, because a larger percentage of new cases are here now, compared to North county.

The things that I *don't* have are:
1. The algorithm that the state uses to adjust for number of tests being performed (which helps us out and lowers effective case rate).
2. The number of new cases that aren't actually new. I add up all new cases that show up each day. I suspect that depending on the day, a certain percentage of these cases have "aged", meaning, they were new 14 days ago and don't actually affect today's "true" case rate.

dukemunson Nov 11, 2020 07:17 AM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Here’s the direct county health link:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/030e625c69a04378b2756de161f82ef6

dukemunson Nov 11, 2020 07:16 AM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Not to be difficult, but As per county health we’re at a 4.3% case rated per 100k (so .4% case rate from the orange tier) and deep into orange on “equity” and positive rate (2.8% and 1.8% respectively). These numbers are via the public health website update yesterday afternoon. Are you saying County Health Numbers are wrong?

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 09, 2020 05:47 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

For MOUNTAINMAN: As of today, the 7-day average of new cases per100,000 residents is 7.5. This is the unadjusted number, which can be augmented by the state based on how much testing we're doing. Additionally, the state has stated that some positive tests may be discounted if the person does not have documentation proving they are residents, despite residing within the county. I'll leave it up to your imagination on how that scenario would arise. Never the less, 7.5 is clearly above the >7.0 cut-off and lands us squarely into the purple-tier. I'm unsure how many days of this are required before the official purple-tier designation.

USA in ruins Nov 07, 2020 12:43 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Cold rainy weather, Thanksgiving indoors closed quarters... Mix it up and brew the virus just enough to spread it around on black friday. Have you gotten your flu shot yet? And while we're at it where are all the public announcements on covid-19? Just a few more weeks away from purple.

Basicinfo805 Nov 13, 2020 06:23 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

There's truth to that - CNN's totally biased, just like Fox and NPR. 'Tis the time to think for oneself. Unfortunately a lot of our fellow citizens do not or cannot think for themselves. All we can do is our own best.

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 07, 2020 11:45 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

USA: The pandemic is over, didn't you hear? There are crowds gathering in the streets across the nation to celebrate the Biden/Harris victory. CNN and MSNBC is no longer describing these political events as "super-spreaders"...they're now calling them "joyous" and "inspirational". Biden already made good on his promise to beat COVID, so you can relax now.

GeneralTree Nov 07, 2020 12:14 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Over 100,000 new cases every day in the US for the past 3 days, over 1,140 deaths yesterday. We are breaking records, in a bad way, daily.. Some here think Santa Barbara is protected by a magic bubble. With more travelers to SB now, people traveling and being in close quarters over the holidays - and with people acting like there isn't a pandemic we are sure to climb in cases.

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 06, 2020 06:19 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Two points. 1) We are not "solidly" in the red tier with case rates preventing fewer restrictions. The adjusted case rates for the past 4 weeks (from past to most recent) are 4.2, 4,3, 4.4, and 4.6. The unadjusted rates are 4.3, 4.8, 4.9, and 5.2. It's clear we're moving back up towards 7.0, which is the purple "widespread" tier. 2) It's not quite true that the majority of positive cases are due to "community close contact transmission". Right now Community Close Contact cases are 3,511, Community Contact cases are 2,322, Unknown are 3,094, Under Investigation are 163, and Travel is 12. The total is 10,128. 3, 511 Community Close Contact cases is only 34.6% of all cases and definitely not the majority of positive cases.

letmego Nov 09, 2020 04:50 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

actually, strike that. Just updated the spreadsheet with the weekend's totals. 7 day case rates (with NO 7 day lag).

Full county: 5.5, 5.4, 5.5
South county only: 6.9, 7.7, 8.3 We are back in purple (>7)

letmego Nov 09, 2020 12:07 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

Actually, Duke, opposite. As of last Friday the South coast numbers were higher than those for the whole county. Over 6, close to 7 and dangerously close to purple.

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 06, 2020 09:04 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

When I stated it's not debatable, I didn't mean that you couldn't spend your evening justifying to me that we should really be in the orange right now. Debate all you like. As far that the county and state are concerned, what you think doesn't matter. As far as trending being minimal, that's because you're just looking thinking about the past month. Again, maybe I'm guilty for leading you on because I wasn't clear and didn't provide the numbers for the previous 4 weeks. We had dropped tremendously from 10.0 down to 4.2, not only to have that "momentum" stopped, but completely reversed, and that reverse has picked up momentum in the past 7 days. When viewed that way, it's quite far from minimal trending.

dukemunson Nov 06, 2020 08:43 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

I think for things like school you have to take out Lompoc, Santa Maria and orcutt... and that to me isn’t debatable! There is much more local day to day overlap and integration with Ventura than with Santa Maria... it’s an arbitrary line that is important for resources but is meaningless for neighborhood schools.

And the trending is pretty minimal... we’re talking a fluctuation within the very bottom of red (4.2 to 4.9). We’re close to orange... just slightly less so...

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 06, 2020 08:27 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

We're in the lower end of red, trending back up to purple. That nicely conveys both of our perspectives. You cannot take out Santa Maria or any other city---that is not debatable. Halloween downtown seems to be responsible for that spike in cases, and there are more upcoming festivities. Furthermore, the cold weather is now driving people indoors, which is not good.

dukemunson Nov 06, 2020 08:08 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

We trended slightly up, as your numbers showed... but we’re still on a weekly rolling average closer to orange than purple. And if you take out Santa Maria and Orcutt we’ve been in orange for quite a while (and yeah would be flirting with popping back up to red with the last few days) but would still on the weekly average be in orange.

ChemicalSuperFreak Nov 06, 2020 07:46 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

"Solidly" to me conveys "unchanging", "unmoving" and "set". I would have just used "currently" or "presently". How close are we to orange? Here's the case rate adjusted to daily reported cases for the population of Santa Barbara County. 32 and above is purple, 18-31 is red, 5-17 is orange, and 4 and below is yellow. Today was 39 cases, and without SM/Orcutt/IV the total would be 19, so not quite there. Yesterday was 47, and without SM/Orcutt/IV the total is 26, so still not quite there. Wednesday was 28, and without SM/Orcutt/IV we're at 22. Nope. Downtown SB has been adding to the numbers the past 3 days, so if you shed them, yes, you're in the orange.

dukemunson Nov 06, 2020 06:55 PM
Gatherings Keep County in Red Tier

What word would you have preferred there instead of “solidly”? I mean, low 4’s could obviously be called “barely” in the red tier or “on the cusp” of orange... “solidly” is seemingly a word that doesn’t convey how close to Orange we are... so I agree... switch it to “BARELY”! And if we can take out Santa Maria/orcutt... we are “basically” orange... no?

Please Login or Register to comment on this.