Evacuations Orders Updated

38 Comments
Reads 50085

(Mike Eliason photos)

Update by the County of Santa Barbara
4:00 p.m., January 8, 2018

A voluntary Evacuation Warning has been issued for parts of Tepusquet Canyon near the Alamo Fire Burn Area, east of Santa Maria.

This storm is expected to produce heavy rain, high winds, and extremely dangerous flash flooding, mud and debris flows in and below recent burn areas. If you are in the Evacuation Warning area, you should stay alert to changing conditions and BE PREPARED to leave at a moment’s notice. You do not need to wait for a mandatory order to leave. If you feel threatened, you can make the decision to leave immediately.

Source: County of Santa Barbara
January 7, 2018

Evacuations have been issued for areas below the Thomas, Whittier, Sherpa and Rey Fire Burn Areas beginning at 12 pm (noon) on Monday, January 8, 2018, due to an approaching winter storm.

This strong storm is expected to produce heavy rain, high winds and extremely dangerous flash flooding, mud and debris flows. Flash floods, mud and debris flows can happen with little or no warning. It is important that you understand the seriousness of the situation and follow the direction of authorities.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER has been issued for unincorporated parts of Santa Barbara County, Montecito, Summerland, and Carpinteria including all areas NORTH of Hwy 192, EAST of Cold Springs Road, and WEST of Hwy 150/the County line. Also included in this Order are the areas along Tecolote Canyon, Eagle Canyon, Dos Pueblos Canyon, Gato Canyon, and the Whittier burn areas near Goleta. People in these areas should take action to leave no later than 12 pm (noon) Monday.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION WARNING has been issued for all areas SOUTH of Hwy 192 to the ocean and EAST of Hot Springs Road/Olive Mill Road to Hwy 150/the County line. People in these areas should stay alert to changing conditions and be prepared to leave immediately. If the situation worsens or you feel threatened, leave immediately or take protective actions. 

Do not delay in taking action to protect you, your family, your animals and your property. If you fail to take action and decide to stay in these areas, you could be stranded with no way for rescuers to reach you if you need help.

An evacuation center will be set up and announced on Monday, January 8, 2018.To determine if your property is in the impact area, please go to www.countyofsb.org and refer to the interactive map. If you do not have access to the Internet, or need assistance evacuating, call 211 or (800) 400-1572.


County Cancels Community Meeting

Heavy rain, wind and possible flash flooding is expected for parts of Santa Barbara County beginning tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday and possibly beyond. As it may not be safe for the public to be on the roads as the storm intensifies, the County has canceled a planned community meeting tomorrow about the increased risk of debris and mud flows due to the Thomas Fire burn area. The meeting was scheduled to be at 5 p.m. at the County Administration.

With the burn scar created by the Thomas Fire, the threat of flash floods and debris/mud flows is now 10 times greater than before the fire. It is important that the public understand the seriousness of this situation and not delay in taking action to protect their self, family and property.

For information, to watch a video of the press conference held on Friday, Jan. 5, and to use the interactive Flood/Debris Flow Risk Area Map, go to www.countyofsb.org. Since the map went live on January 5, it has been viewed more than 60,000 times. If the public does not have access to the Internet or needs assistance accessing the map, please call 211 from the 805 area code, or toll free 800-400-1572.

If you are not yet registered for alerts from Aware and Prepare, you should do so NOW – do not wait. To register, go to www.awareandprepare.org.

Login to add Comments

38 Comments

Toggle Comments (Show)
pxn Jan 08, 2018 10:25 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

I'm confused about the soil erosion phenomena -- the plants burned, but the roots that hold the soil in place did not burn. Without the plants, there isn't anything to break the fall of the rain above the soil, but is that the only factor than results in major erosion? If there's a soil engineer can you explain please.

a-1526984053 Jan 09, 2018 05:24 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

also, fire bakes the top level of soil, making it somewhat or totally impermeable, thus runoff. Just google "post fire soil" Some good info here, with a table of contents. https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr243.pdf **************************************************************************************All I can say is better safe than sorry. I live south of Foothill and did pack during the fire, on that bad flareup night.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 10:37 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

I'm not a soil expert, but what I heard was that this fire was so hot that even the roots were mostly consumed, and the chaparral left an oily residue on the soil that makes it repel water. Thus, there isn't enough absorption to keep the water from running off and mechanically scouring the loose soil and rocks downhill.

Shasta Guy Jan 08, 2018 07:20 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Be safe tonight. I know everyone is getting evacuation fatigue, but a debris flow off of a denuded ridge is a violent, unstoppable event. It will be like a Lahar without a nearby volcano. Thanks John W for all your posts and Sbitz.net that keeps us well informed. I remember the massive rainfall events of the early 1990s where 13" of rain fell overnight on fully vegetated hills...and the problems were immense. If we get the sort of rain that is being predicted with the ridge in the condition that it's in, it could be an unprecedented event for us. Be safe and don't tempt fate.

a-1526984053 Jan 09, 2018 05:25 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

"I know everyone is getting evacuation fatigue, but a debris flow off of a denuded ridge is a violent, unstoppable event." Exactly!! the sheriff mentioned that fatigue, but you put it better.

Tran Farkenton Jan 08, 2018 06:39 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

My N95 mask, which I've been wearing since December 4th (even to bed) got wet in the rain today. Should I dry it out or continue to wear it while wet? I am afraid to take it off.

a-1526984053 Jan 09, 2018 05:24 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

If this isn't trolling, you might want to talk to someone about your obsessiveness.

yin yang Jan 09, 2018 02:45 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

was TRYING to respond to Roger's new house tale. Mission creek under Marty's pizza, next to shopping center and what is now Handlebar, overflowed too. (I think it's the same year, may well be wrong)

yin yang Jan 09, 2018 02:43 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

OH yeah. I lived near the Mission underpass and watched some people pedal-paddling in that mini-lake.

Roger Jan 09, 2018 06:56 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

A lot of people being rescued many injuries possible loss of life Homes destroyed burned, gas lines ruptured, people unaccounted for....Here is your gentle rain know it all.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 11:36 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Part of the agenda of these alt-fact trolling meatbots is to cast FUD on anything concerning weather and climate prediction, government services and public servants, or civil rights and common human decency. Just ignore them or down-vote them out of sight rather than playing their game and letting them get to you.

Roger Jan 08, 2018 09:51 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Thomas Fire should have been put out in 2 hours Were you there? Have you ever been in a fire storm Go blow your hot air somewhere else...

therealbebe Jan 08, 2018 09:37 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

I have a brain, thanks, despite your best efforts to try to insult me. Stay classy.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 09:18 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

You really are out of touch with reality, especially with regard to firefighting. Since you aren't keeping up with things with regard to the rainfall forecast, here's the latest: Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 703 PM PST Mon Jan 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will become heavy, especially in isolated thunderstorms with gusty south winds tonight into early Tuesday as a cold front pushes through the region. Behind the front Tuesday, rain and mountain snow will become showery in nature with a continued slight chance of thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected Wednesday through this weekend. && .UPDATE... Forecast is pretty much on track though looking at satellite and the 00Z computer runs it looks like perhaps the timing is running 2 to 3 hours slower than previously through. Still no change in the forecast amounts or intensities. Rainfall amounts this afternoon were close to forecast and if anything it looks like the foothill areas (esp in LA county) received a little more rain than forecast. Satellite and radar show the rain easing up across most of the area and this is consistent with the hi-rez mdls the National Computer center are running specifically for this event. Still have to be cognizant of the fact that upslope flow over the foothills and coastal slopes can produce significant rainfall amounts that the radars do not see. What looks likely for the overnight forecast is that the lull will persist until around midnight. When the cold front nears the Central Coast the south winds will increase across the entire areas and this along with an increase in PVA will dramatically increase the rainfall esp over the foothills. Peak rainfall rates associated with the front will occur over Southern SBA county between 2am and 5am, over VTA county 4am to 7am, and LA county just in time for rush hour 7am to 10am. TSTMs look more and more likely with this event as better than expected instability lift and cape move into the area with and behind the front. The TSTM threat will persist through the day on Tuesday and any storms that form will be capable or producing damaging winds and/or flooding rains. The wind warnings and advisories are limping along right now due to the slower than expected arrival of the storm. The winds will increase across the area through the evening starting across the Central Coast and then working their to the east.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 09:07 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

The totally out of touch rain forecast and even much worse the amateurish way in which fire prevention is dealt with : Absolutely NO preparedness in fighting fires before they turn into a cataclysm. Thomas Fire should have been put out within 2 hours. California has no equipment and no readiness to deal with such events. And their answer is : "Oh ! Well ! That's just "normal", so don't expect us to do anything about it" ..

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 07:58 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

1) Nobody can be forced to evacuate. 2) What have you got against public safety?

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 07:17 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Nothing to do with instant gratification and everything to do with being mis-lead. Earlier reports had us having inches of rain, flooding, and mud slides by now. Not on and off again gentle showers amounting to less then an inch in 2 days.

therealbebe Jan 08, 2018 06:21 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Have you actually *LOOKED AT* the forecast? It's the overnight hours that hold the most rain. Or does our society's penchant for instant gratification apply to the weather, too?

Roger Jan 08, 2018 06:19 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Back in the 90's I lived in Newhouse on Haley this dude told me that we were going to get like 8 inches over night I says, "Yea right." Next morning woke up with my am radio alarm on talking about City college hill flowing toward the Marina. Still did not believe but put on my surf shoes (never surfed in my life those shoes are very slippery.) Went out front got coffee in my cup a smoke in my mouth...Walked out the door from the top step to the street I went flying the street was flooded looked up saw someone float by on a bed on De La Vina....It was back in 95'...

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 05:13 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

2 tenths of inch so far at my house in the Noleta foothills. Between the last storm and this one my rain gauge has measured 4 tenths of an inch. Beyond this report I’ll make no further comments.

a-1526984053 Jan 09, 2018 02:41 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Simply pay more attention to what you read. Did you witness the rain and wind at 2 or 3 a.m.?

John Wiley Jan 08, 2018 01:21 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

CivilEngineer, I looked that Camarillo event up and found a PDF I'll post links to on SBitZ.NET (one for PDF and one for a gCache that opens in web browsers). It describes the aftermath as having "rock debris to estimated depths of about eight to ten feet" below the area of the Spring Fire. That was much smaller than the Thomas Fire. Scary stuff.

John Wiley Jan 08, 2018 12:57 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Yes, this is likely to be MUCH worse than the fire for anyone in the wrong place tonight. I've just been looking at the generally accurate 24 hour government rain forecasts we sometimes use for flight planning, and posted some maps on SBitZ.NET showing a total of 7 inches likely along the county line thru the Thomas Fire burn. There won't be time to get out of the way, or protect property like during the fire. This will almost certainly be worse than the rain a decade or so ago, that killed a judge and destroyed his new house on Sycamore Creek. Sure hope everyone's somewhere safe tonight!

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 12:19 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

http://www.weather.gov/lox/ updated today, Monday. “If you live in the recent burn areas including the Thomas, Whittier, Creek, and LaTuna burn areas, there is a high probability that debris flows will occur tonight into Tuesday, when highest rainfall rates are expected. 4 to 7 inches of rain are expected in the foothills and mountains, with isolated totals up to 9 inches. Stay alert to the forecast and follow instructions from you local emergency officials.” I heard a local official this morning say on channel 3 that we could get up to 9 inches of rain on south sloping hills.

TWOSCOOPS Jan 08, 2018 11:29 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Everyone might be taking down their "thank you firefighters" signs, and instead replace with signage, "thank you Cajun Navy". (A little bit of humor to lighten the day!)

CivilEngineer Jan 08, 2018 10:54 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Main rain with high intensities predicted to occur overnight on Monday night starting late in the evening. If your house is at the bottom of a hill that burned, or in a canyon close to a creek, you should consider evacuating. There is very little you can do to protect your house against flooding or a debris flow if it should occur, and they are very dangerous for people. Google "Camarillo Springs Debris Flows" if you want to see what could happen.

Flicka Jan 08, 2018 10:33 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Seems the mandatory evacs are about the same as during the fire; above 192, etc. That's what is printed above.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 08:13 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Rain, 9 inches predicted for south facing slopes, a record. Overnight. This is serious.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 07:03 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

WHO is predicting 9 inches? Clearly they are fear mongering since the rest are only forecasting up to 4 inches, which is bad enough.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 10:40 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

This is the only time I've seen anyone predicting 9 inches. Where are you talking about? Seattle?

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 08:38 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

When I see it, I’ll believe it. The meteorologists/weathermen have been wrong before.

a-1526984053 Jan 08, 2018 06:24 AM
Evacuations Orders Updated

I am just loving this rain, what little we’ve received so far by 6:20 am. I hope this is not the deluge they predicted because we do need all we can get, but of course I don’t want all the flooding and mud slides either so I’m kinda torn between the two potential outcomes.

a-1526984053 Jan 07, 2018 07:46 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

To tell the truth, from these maps and web sites, it's hard, if not impossible, to tell if one's home is in the mandatory or even voluntary evacuation zone. Is there another way to find out?

tagdes Jan 07, 2018 08:18 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

Just zoom into the area of the map where your house is and see which color coded area if any you are in.

Sundance Jan 07, 2018 08:11 PM
Evacuations Orders Updated

I know, it can be very confusing. You can also call 211 or the 800 number above and they will help you.

Please Login or Register to comment on this.