Cachuma Lake Increase Guess?

I'd like to get "hammered" just enough to generate runoff but not enough for debris flows to happen.

Ok, it's 3pm and here comes the heavy stuff - let's keep our fingers crossed we get hammered!

I'm changing my guess to 64.1

In addition to the direct hit, it might take a couple of days for the water to drain from the hills. I can't guess the increase, but so glad it will do so!

I jinxed the storm with my prediction. Only came up a small amount from rain yesterday. And maybe the storm won't drop south today? It looks pretty stationary.

Going with 68.8%

My guess is79%

66% .... 2/3 sounds good to me

72%

I'm going with 80% Gibraltar is silted in. It fills fast.

Yeah no way is it going to spill with this storm, or the next. Maybe go up to 70% I agree with that. Should be a great rain though. We'll take it!

Due to lack of rain this season, I suspect the ground is still pretty absorbent, and the runoff will be minimal. I hope I am wrong!

I'd guess 65.5% by Saturday morning, assuming the storm passes out of this area around midnight on Friday.

The Public guess is probably more accurate than the water authority figure that what do we need them for mismanagement?

My guess is ~70% by the weekend. I know it doesn't sound like much. Gibraltar Reservoir, upstream, is at 10% capacity, and until Gib spills over, the eastern area of the watershed accumulates there. Also, as of Wednesday at noon, the atmospheric river has stalled farther north than forecasted and SLO county is getting much of what we expected today.

Going to be spilling if the rain predictions are right.