61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

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By edhat staff

The Santa Barbara County Public Health Department is reporting 61 new COVID-19 cases over the weekend and 2 additional deaths.

The deaths were in the City of Santa Maria. One individual was between the ages of 30-49 and one individual was between the ages of 50-69. Both had underlying medical conditions and neither was associated with an outbreak at a congregate living facility.

There have now been 122 COVID-19 related deaths within the county. There are 9 hospitalizations with two in the intensive care unit (ICU).

There have now been 9,820 positive cases with 118 cases currently active. 

More details can be found at https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/

 

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dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 08:13 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

As per the cdc’s latest model (it’s ugly if you are over 70!!)

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

a-1604036743 Oct 29, 2020 10:45 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

And how can your number be anywhere near valid worldwide, when it's so dependent on time and location?

a-1604036575 Oct 29, 2020 10:42 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

But they apply well only to a given time and place, and since you have to wait for cases to resolve, they apply to a time weeks past, since current, unresolved cases aren't used. Are you now saying you're switching to fatality/case ratio? That's a much higher number.

Test results only show cases. That is, people who are known to have the virus. It doesn't necessarily say much about the prevalence of the virus in the population, especially when you have poor testing coverage.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 10:14 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The CDC’s infection mortality rate? Those numbers apply to anyone who gets sick...They are the CDC’s best guess using he latest data from around the world as to what your chance of living/dying from Covid if you catch it... broken down by age.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 10:06 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

And the 24-36 hours is for the low priority (but free!) tests that you can take at the revolving testing spots in sb, Goleta, Buellton, Oxnard, arroyo grande and Pismo...

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 10:01 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

I don’t follow... why weeks? The state Tests are all coming back within 24-36 hours now... those are going straight to the cdc. So it’s not their only metric... But the CDC is finding out quite quickly and it’s a useful number to know and have (what percent are testing positive). Part of the test is background data as they are trying to learn as much from every test as possible...

a-1604033733 Oct 29, 2020 09:55 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

But your response would be weeks late. Again, it seems like more concrete metrics would be preferable.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 09:53 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

In my defense I did post that earlier with appropriate labeling... I do not count the copy and paste function on the iPhone as one of my friends (And on a side note: yes I did fail several courses in college.. though I think those were more attendance related than unit labeling related... not 100% sure... It was a wild sophomore year!!!).

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 09:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Yes, it varies by place... But that’s quite useful! And you don’t have to wait for things to resolve. If % testing positive crosses a certain threshold you can implement a localized response. So say you get A spike in New Jersey, it doesn’t necessitate the closure of a school in Goleta kind of thing.

a-1604032307 Oct 29, 2020 09:31 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

But percent testing positive varies by time and place. Such a number would only be valid for a certain local area, and only valid for an earlier time, since it would depend on cases having resolved (per 9:15 pm), which takes at least a couple of weeks.

In a rapidly changing pandemic environment, that doesn't seem to be a particulary good number to use for decision making.

ChemicalSuperFreak Oct 29, 2020 09:15 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

@ 8:49 PM: For the purposes of these numbers, they actually do know the number of "infected". These appear to be mortality rates, which are derived by observing the outcomes from a given number of "infected" individuals. For example, you have 1000 people over the age of 70 who have tested positive for CV. 54 of these people eventually die, presumably from CV, and 946 of them recover completely. The mortality rate would be: Mortality = (deaths)/(deaths + recoveries) = (54)/(54 + 946) = 0.054 deaths/"infection". It's important to note that "infection" here are those which have had a concluded outcome, either died or recovered. It's important not to use derive a mortality rate based exclusively on positive tests, since the outcome of a positive test is ambiguous unless otherwise stated. However, in terms of infections among the general public, all of the CV test currently being approved via the FDA's EUA are using a 5% prevalence among the general population.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 09:07 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

percent testing positive is the big indicator as it lets you make some quite reasonable assumptions on how many untested people are positive (the general sentiment being that when that number crosses 10%, containment in that area is going to be tough as it’s raging).

ChemicalSuperFreak Oct 29, 2020 09:01 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

@ 8:25 PM: It reminds me of being a TA in grad school and all the careless students who turned in unitless numbers or plots without labeled axes. They usually ended up failing the course. I think these are mortality rates, prior to being converted into percentages. The units would then be "deaths/infections".

a-1604030650 Oct 29, 2020 09:04 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Also, given that the infection incidence is so variable from location to location, say comparing here to the White House, and also varies greatly over time, since this seems to be a super-spreader driven virus, rather than straight Rnought, how can anyone come up with a valid "vanilla" number that applies to the whole country?

a-1604029745 Oct 29, 2020 08:49 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

How do they come up with the denominator (the number infected) without knowing how many people are infected, since not everyone has been tested, and various studies have come up with wildly different estimates of the prevalence of the disease in the general population?

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 08:43 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Good point!!!!

It’s the CDC’s Infection Fatality Ratio

So if you are 70+, the CDC believes that if you catch Covid (on average) you have a 5.4% chance of dying from this thing (and on the other end, if you are 0-19 they are predicting you have a .003% chance). The CDC is averaging it out at .5% over all who get infected, which is a tad lower than the WHO (along with a few of the European and Asian models I’ve seen, which mostly say .55 to .65%).

a-1604028352 Oct 29, 2020 08:25 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Without giving the units you're working with for numerator and denominator to come up with those numbers, that's a pretty meaningless post! Are they furlongs per fortnight?

GeneralTree Oct 28, 2020 09:31 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Death rates increase when hospitals become overwhelmed as they have to choose who to treat. With a "do nothing" strategy we stand to lose a million people by this time next year. The low information populists pushing phony public health info are criminals and should be treated as such.

a-1604023257 Oct 29, 2020 07:00 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

1:27: What a bizarre attitude. The fact that Utah's hospitals are being overwhelmed by the pandemic, and they may have to start triage on incoming patients isn't newsworthy? Just be glad you don't live in a state that resisted public health advice for so long, and instead in one took steps to keep its citizens safer. Assuming you even live in California, and not Russia.

Voice of Reason Oct 29, 2020 01:27 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Glad you brought up Utah. Their hospitalizations per million are lower than NJ's currently and they still do not have a statewide mask mandate. A lot of panic porn out there right now regarding Utah's covid hospitalizations, be careful what you read in the media (disclaimer: the media is not a news organization but a FOR PROFIT enterprise with the #1 goal of making money. Do you think a headline that reads "everting is OK" or "Utah hospitals could start rationing health care" would make them more money via clicks, ads and viewers? )

PitMix Oct 29, 2020 09:03 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Utah is already implementing the dreaded "death panels" that repubs warned us about in the 90s when they were trying to offer universal healthcare. But this time it is the repubs implementing them, so it is okay, I guess. Don't tell anyone about your underlying health conditions when you go to the hospital or they might put you on the soylent green list.

sblocal1967 Oct 28, 2020 12:02 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Does anyone know if there are stats on the types of underlying health conditions people have/had who have been hospitalized or died with Covid? And what % do/did not underlying health conditions.
I am assuming there would be similarities with people who get hit hard with the common flu.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 05:20 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Do you mean this quote?

A 1% mortality rate “means it is 10-times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” Fauci said. “I think that’s something people can get their arms around and understand.”

Voice of Reason Oct 28, 2020 04:58 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Last time I checked in 2020 the flu had killed more people under the age of 18 than Covid. The stats show for the young, the flu is more dangerous. This is the opposite for the elderly as covid is much earlier than the flu. The elderly get both ends of the short stick as the flu is also very dangerous for them.

PitMix Oct 28, 2020 04:08 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Table 3 of https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities

Dr. Fauci says covid is at least 10 times more deadly than the worst flu virus since the 1918 pandemic.

ChemicalSuperFreak Oct 28, 2020 10:23 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

These days, almost everyone has a qualifying underlying health condition due to the general poor health of our population. Lots of people are overweight, for example.

letmego Oct 28, 2020 09:32 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

There have been at least 21 deaths of people without underlying conditions. I have been keeping a spreadsheet of deaths as reported by the PHD.

99 yes, 21 no, 6 unknown (not reported)

macpuzl Oct 27, 2020 04:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

A worthwhile article comparing SARS, COVID-19, and influenza pandemic mortality:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext

MountainMan4865 Oct 27, 2020 04:27 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

On the other hand - Friday, there were 129 cases and 17 hospitalizations with 3 in the ICU. As of today, with the additional 61 new cases.... 118 cases and 9 hospitalizations - 2 in the ICU. So a significant number (72?) dropped off the case load over the weekend.

Voice of Reason Oct 27, 2020 11:35 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

There are currently ZERO Covid patients at Cottage Hospital, nine patients are split between Marian Regional Medical Center and Lompoc Valley Medical Center. This in a county of 440,000 people! What the heck are we doing?!? Why are our schools still closed?!? Why are so many okay with this abdication of personal responsibility?!?

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 04:41 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The projections at this point (population wide) say .6%

That number goes up exponentially for over 70 year olds and down exponentially for kids.

Voice of Reason Oct 29, 2020 04:12 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Hold on Duke, let's not misconstrue that Pitmix / Fauci quote. He did not say covid is 10 times as dangerous as the flu. -- A 1% mortality rate “means it is 10-times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” Fauci said. “I think that’s something people can get their arms around and understand.” -- He did not say Covid has a 1% mortality rate, he was just using that as an example he uses to better help laymen understand. So the 0.3% would mean covid is 3 x as deadly as the flu. Deadly, yes, so deadly we need to close schools for 8+ months, force businesses into bankruptcy, launch unemployment into the stratosphere, and forever widen the income and execution gap, I say hell no. Especially when that .3% number drops for the young (as bad or not even as bad as the flu) and increases for the old (wow that's dangerous, better focus our resources protecting them).

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 03:42 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The "guesses" are all scientific models designed to understand a pandemic...does that not register in any capacity?

But let's explore and dive in! We have an interesting and instructive local example: The Lompoc Correctional facility. In it, there were 1026 cases and 3 deaths. This obviously makes sense (well to everyone but you), because you had a controlled environment and everyone was tested. The number of .3% is in line with projections for the demographic.

I'd be curious to see how would you look at that number? Perhaps convicted felons are immune (like the North Koreans) to Covid-19?

We are in a pandemic. It's dangerous and terrible and life altering. It's 10 times as dangerous as the flu (as per Dr. Fauci). But say that...say the truth...don't change or exaggerate it...and yeah dont water it down either...just say the truth...it's a good maxim to live by.

a-1604010233 Oct 29, 2020 03:23 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

1:17 pm: Yes! You should look at the test result positives! But not at the guesses at positives in the untested population, as you keep blathering to try to water down the severity of the pandemic.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:21 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

And you are right...these are some of the numbers scientists are looking at...your just missing the thought/idea that they are then using those numbers to actually figure things out. In essence...you've shown that you can read numbers. You don't have any idea what to do with those numbers...but you are able to look at numbers and letters and discern the difference, and that's great...I'm working with my 3 year old on that very concept...it's not easy!!

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:17 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Good article (if somewhat dated at 3.5 months old). What jumped out to me was the below quote, which is exactly what I'm talking about!

One of the most useful numbers to determine isn’t the sheer number of cases, but rather the percentage of tests that come back positive, or simply the percent positive.

According to Johns Hopkins University, positive COVID-19 tests in the United States surged to nearly 22 percent at the end of March when testing wasn’t as widely available and was being reserved for hospitalized patients.

Those numbers dipped to around 4 percent in June as more people were being tested — such as essential workers with asymptomatic infections — but as of Wednesday had a 7-day average of 8.7 percent.

Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Maryland, says, for example, if testing in an area shows 10 percent of people have the virus, then the infection is now “out of control.”

a-1604001988 Oct 29, 2020 01:06 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

These are the statistics people should pay attention to, not the fuzzy estimates of mortality rate based on guesses as to the number of actual infections that have occurred.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/cases-deaths-hospitalizations-how-to-make-sense-of-covid-19-stats

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:01 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Your not correcting anyone though...you are literally trying to misinform people! The accepted mortality rate is .6%. THAT'S A BIG SCARY/DANGEROUS number!!! But stop exaggerating it! It's like saying masks are useless...they obviously aren't useless!!! Stop being the idiot on the other side though that is desperately misleading people the other way. TRUST THE SCIENTISTS ON THIS ONE (and well, all ones going forward)!!!!!!

a-1604000808 Oct 29, 2020 12:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Not really a statistic that anyone in the medical profession relies on, but used very early on in the pandemic to try to get a handle on things. Now that we have more data, other metrics predominate. But you'll keep repeating it, and attacking anyone who corrects you.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 12:41 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The "dodgy statistic" is literally the statistic all scientists and researchers are operating on/via. When we didn't test anyone...do you think that the only people that had it died? Honestly it's probably not your fault... science and logic aren't really taught or respected these days...

a-1603999872 Oct 29, 2020 12:31 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DuMun is only logical if you think repeating the same dodgy statistic that's not a true measure of mortality over and over makes it true, and claiming anything else is a lie.

Shmonk Oct 29, 2020 11:39 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DM - all of your points in this thread track and have been completely logical. Not sure why anyone would want to lie/embellish in order to make things seem worse than they are. Nobody here is denying covid...

PitMix Oct 29, 2020 09:07 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

227000 people dead. 8.2M infected (CFR). 2.6% fatality rate. Data from Oct 27, not April like DM's link. Cannot find any reliable data on DM's beloved IFR numbers or the death undercount. Probably both factors cancel each other out.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 05:09 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

You were anti CDC on your last post... common Pitmix... at least be consistent in your misinformation... err wait that might defeat some of your purpose..

Yes your right, every single Covid positive person has been tested and accounted for. That just holds to reason... I mean obviously...

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 05:04 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

What about the cdc’s .7%? Did you not like that link so just ignore it... pretend like it didn’t happen? CDC... Are they fringe or crazy or can we trust that...?

PitMix Oct 28, 2020 03:59 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DM, did you even read the Forbes link? More caveats than a pre-nup, and they are basing most of their conclusions on Indiana data from April . (Note to self, stop interacting with people that post links that don't support their arguments. ) . I know you love to say IFR but I don't see how you can put any stock in those numbers as the number of asymptomatic infections are just wild a$$ guesses (WAGs). They sample a few people, and extrapolate out to the entire population. WAG.

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