Winter Isn’t Over Yet: Punxsutawney Phil Sees His Shadow, Predicting Six More Weeks of Cold

Bundle up, America. According to the nation’s most famous weather-forecasting groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, winter is here to stay for a while longer.

On Monday morning, February 2, before a crowd of thousands at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the celebrated groundhog emerged from his burrow and saw his shadow. According to long-standing tradition, the furry forecaster’s reaction signals six more weeks of winter weather. Had he not seen his shadow, an early spring would have been on its way.

The annual event, which dates back to 1887, is steeped in folklore. However, while the tradition is a beloved cultural touchstone, scientific analysis suggests that Phil’s predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

According to data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Phil’s accuracy rate over the last decade is just 30%. Predicting the arrival of spring for a country with climates as varied as the United States is an incredibly difficult task, even for professional meteorologists.

A look at recent history underscores this challenge. Last year, in 2025, Phil also saw his shadow and predicted a longer winter. In reality, the contiguous United States experienced near-average temperatures in February, followed by a much-warmer-than-average March, making his forecast incorrect.

Even his very first prediction in 1887 had mixed results. While the Northeast and Great Lakes regions did see below-normal temperatures, the Southeast and Gulf states were warmer than average, demonstrating the difficulty of a one-size-fits-all national forecast.

While Punxsutawney Phil’s fans celebrate the spectacle, weather experts at NOAA recommend that for a more accurate outlook, the public should consult the official forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices. For now, though, according to legend, it’s time to keep the winter coats handy.