No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

57 Comments
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By an edhat reader

Does anyone else find it interesting that Montecito had mandatory evacuations yesterday for a complete non-event and now, it is predicted that we will have 4-5 hours of thunderstorms Early Thursday morning and we have not heard a peep from the County OEM? Isn't this storm situation stacking up like when we got hit on 1/9/18 ?? Thunderstorm activity can change rapidly and with 4-5 hours of activity predicted, isn't this a pretty high risk situation that they are ignoring?

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monkeyboy Jan 16, 2019 02:57 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

LA news keeps talking about an atmospheric river which can bring unpredictable downpours. I think I would plan on leaving regardless of what the county says...they didn't exactly get it right last time.

sbbulldog Jan 16, 2019 02:49 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Many of us have thought about this. Most of us rather be non control of our own destiny. I would strongly advise the OP to follow their own feelings and get to a safe place. No need to suffer anxiety. No guarantees.

PitMix Jan 16, 2019 02:45 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

The predictions for yesterday's storms were much more intense than the predictions for tonight's storms. For the 1st 2 storms this week, the forecasts were for more rain than occurred. They have to be careful about crying "wolf" too many times because with each nonevent, they know fewer people will heed the evacuation warnings. The conditions that caused the damage last year was a 100-yr rain intensity on a recently burned watershed. Now that the watershed has recovered it would take a larger event to cause the same damage. The probability of having 2 100-yr rain events in successive years is very small, 0.01x0.01 or 0.0001. There are a lot of assumptions and nuances associated with this but to sum it up, they are using good judgment and being careful about being overly cautious to the point where people stop listening to them.

PitMix Jan 17, 2019 09:09 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Yes, there is a .01 chance of equalling or exceeding a 100-yr event in any given year. And on average, you should get 1 100-yr event in a 100-yr period. The probability of getting 1 or more 100-yr events in a 100-yr period is pretty high, 0.63. Conversely, the probability of not getting any 100-yr events in a 100-yr period is 1-.63 or .37. But the probability of getting TWO 100-yr events in successive years is really small, 0.0001. Statistics is hard to understand but that is how it works out.

a-1550573671 Jan 17, 2019 12:19 AM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

The watershed has not “recovered”. Look at the debris flow photos of 1969 from the 1964 Coyote Fire as an example of what can happen. Having said that, the County is now using formulas of inches per hour (or minute) to judge when a flow might happen. They are predicting the threshold won’t be reached with tonight’s storm. We all hope they are right. Some concerned people in Montecito have “self evacuated”. We would too, if we had little kids.

Potif Jan 16, 2019 04:39 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

When I lived in northern Virginia, the first day of Spring was always welcomed by the 'worst snow storm in 30 years', according to those who had grown up and lived there all their lives... EVERY YEAR!!! So, I figure that at any time in the future we could have another 100 year rain event. Mother Nature always seems to have something waiting up her sleeves to surprise us.

a-1550573671 Jan 16, 2019 03:27 PM
No Warning for Thursday Rainstorm?

Actually, now that we've had the 100 year rain event, the chances of having it again are .01 (Like flipping a penny, once you've gotten heads 10 times in a row...the chance of getting it 11 is...still 50/50)

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