Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning title=
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning
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By Dr. Henning Ansorg, M.D., FACP, Health Officer County of Santa Barbara, Department of Public Health

Santa Barbara County is seeing an alarming increase in new case rates for COVID-19, with active cases up 90% over two weeks ago. With the current uptick, it is expected that the daily case rates will continue to increase and cause a new wave of infection similar to the Summer of 2020.

The biggest obstacle to stopping the virus is the proportion of unvaccinated community members. In Santa Barbara County, an unvaccinated person is15 times more likely to get infected and fall ill from COVID-19 compared to if they were vaccinated. The new surge is truly a wave of unvaccinated people falling ill and spreading the virus to others.

Severe COVID-19 can be very dangerous: The sooner you get vaccinated, the sooner you, your friends and family will be protected.

How do I protect myself against variants?

• Get vaccinated if you are 12 years of age or older. The three COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the US offer the best protection against all variants currently spreading here. They have proven to be very safe and effective. If you have concerns or questions about COVID-19 vaccines, talk with your doctor. If you are already vaccinated, encourage your family, friends, and neighbors to get vaccinated.

Wear a mask. Masks remain the most powerful tool to protect yourself from infection and others if you were unknowingly spreading the virus before developing symptoms. Make sure you wear a well-fitting mask that covers both your mouth and nose in public indoor settings.  Because the Delta variant is capable to occasionally infect vaccinated people, we  strongly recommend that fully vaccinated persons also wear masks indoors in public places .

Learn more about masks at https://publichealthsbc.org/individual-health/.

• Wash your hands and/or use hand sanitizer often - especially after being in public spaces where surfaces are touched by many people.

How do I get a COVID-19 vaccine?

Vaccines are available across Santa Barbara County and free to everyone, regardless of immigration status. Many vaccination sites take walk-ins, or you can choose to make an appointment.

• Visit https://publichealthsbc.org/vaccine/ to find a location near you.

• Visit https://www.vaccines.gov/ for additional locations

• Information is also available in many languages 24/7 by calling 2-1-1.

• TEXT: GETVAX (438829) for English or VACUNA (822862) for Spanish

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EastBeach Jul 24, 2021 02:04 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Masks are optional at my workplace for those who can provide proof of vaccination. But I continue to wear a mask because (1) someone in our office just got a "break-through" infection, and (2) I was at Albertsons when someone in line said he was from Florida and that "they don't do masks or shots". In the parking lot I noticed his large RV had Florida plates. A tourist vector.

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 24, 2021 04:39 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

LATEST NUMBERS OUT OF PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND

Here’s the latest batch of data (Friday’s technical briefing 19) from Public Health England (PHE) regarding vaccinations and the delta variant. PHE is one of the very few government organizations that is fully transparent, providing a very high level of detail in their reports. You can look at the numbers yourself here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

DELTA CASE NUMBERS: Most of the delta positive cases are currently unvaccinated people (53.0%), with 10.4% being fully vaccinated. That said, these numbers have been changing dramatically since early June, with an small net decrease in unvaccinated cases (-1.9%) and a rather large increase in fully vaccinated cases (+7.5%).

HOSPITALIZATIONS FROM DELTA: Overnight stays in the hospital have mostly been unvaccinated people, but since monitoring started in June these numbers tending toward a reversal. Cases of unvaccinated people with overnight stays in the hospital have dropped (-7.4%), and fully vaccinated hospitalizations have dramatically increased (+17.7%).

TOTAL DEATHS FROM DELTA:
460 people have died from the delta variant as of Friday’s report, with 224 of them being fully vaccinated (48.7%) and only 165 being unvaccinated (35.9%). Partially vaccinated account of 65 deaths (14.1%).

MORTALITY OF DELTA:
Based on the data provided in the latest technical briefing, mortality for fully vaccinated people is 0.10%, while mortality for unvaccinated people is slightly lower at 0.07%, for only 0.03% for partially vaccinated.

MY CONCLUSIONS:
The vaccines are failing against the delta variant in real-world England. While the majority of positive delta cases and hospitalizations are among unvaccinated people, those numbers are dropping and a fully vaccinated individuals are making up a larger proportion of cases and hospitalizations. Most concerning are the outcomes, with fully vaccinated individuals making up the majority of deaths (48.7% fully vaccinated vs 35.9% unvaccinated). I’ve been criticized as being misleading by presenting the numbers this way, which is why I’m now including the mortality rates (0.10% fully vaccinated vs. 0.07% unvaccinated). Either way you look at it, there vaccines are simply not providing the expect protection to certain populations of fully vaccinated individuals, which thus far appears to be those over 50 years of age. Links to pre-existing conditions are not apparent from the data. My suspicion is that unvaccinated people are still treating COVID as a threat and taking precautions, while fully vaccinated people have returned to a pre-COVID mentality and are now paying a price. If you think what’s happening in England can’t or won’t happen here, you are fooling yourself---or someone fooled you.

a-1627188352 Jul 24, 2021 09:45 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Dok Elmer FUD returns with more Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Needless to say, the vaccines are performing well in the UK.

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/the-majority-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-in-the-u-k-are-among-unvaccinated-people/

a-1627189078 Jul 24, 2021 09:57 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

It helps to have accurate data, without amateur analysis and conclusions.

The vaccines remain effective against the delta variant in the UK.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

"RESULTS
Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.
CONCLUSIONS
Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose. This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations. (Funded by Public Health England.)"

dw2000 Jul 25, 2021 03:10 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Also, in the UK, many people are receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine and Janssen vaccines which (while still good as far as vaccines go) are not as effective as Pfizer and Moderna. Id be curious to learn how many of the fully vaccinated that are getting sick have received AstraZenaca or Jannsen

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 25, 2021 03:33 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

NEJM DATA IS OLD AND INACCURATE
There are two main problems with the data in the NEJM paper. First, it’s incredibly old, using data only up to the middle of May (see Methods section of NEJM paper). The data I’m using from PHE is through July 21 (top of page 5, technical briefing 19), which includes 2 more months of data that is not in the NEJM paper. Second, data used in the NEJM paper was acknowledged as less accurate by PHE: “Targets were updated in mid-May 2021 to prioritise accurate identification of Delta over Alpha.” (bottom of page 54, technical briefing 19). Sorry, but the data in that NEJM paper is just really old and inaccurate. This why it pays to do your own research and stay on top of the current data.

a-1627256870 Jul 25, 2021 04:47 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

They don't have J&J yet, and just approved Moderna, so the big players are Pfizer and AstraZeneca:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/26/what-covid-vaccines-does-uk-have-valneva

a-1627275744 Jul 25, 2021 10:02 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Just amateur FUD, given that you're not qualified to do a professional analysis of the data. And your link in the previous post was from December of 2020.

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 25, 2021 11:08 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Anyone who opens the PHE link I supplied and looks at the UK data for themselves, including the July 23, 2021 technical briefing 19, will see the following:

Research and analysis
Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: technical briefings
Technical briefing documents on novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.

From: Public Health England
Published 21 December 2020
Last updated 23 July 2021 — See all updates

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: technical briefing 19

Bene Jul 26, 2021 01:36 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Chem, it will be a very interesting next few months to see how this all plays out, don't you think? Since vaccines have been available such a relatively short time I think we may have some interesting new info with upcoming studies and data. Obviously in your line of work you are not anti-vax, but I gather you are not a fan of mRNA vaccines in general? May I ask what you think of the J & J as far as safety for those with auto immune problems, and efficacy against Delta?

SBgal74 Jul 26, 2021 08:59 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Chem….This is absolutely a inappropriate comparison. What you FAIL to mention here is that the pillar of the UK vaccine program has been the Astra Zeneca shot which has been shown to be rather ineffective at preventing infection due to the Delta variant. The US has relied heavily on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines which you know are completely different and thus far have shown to be holding up against Delta. You can throw out all the statistics you want, but Im guessing you’re smart enough to know better than to compare apples to oranges? Or perhaps you think others are so dumb not to see through this attempt to conflate two completely different situations??

GeneralTree Jul 26, 2021 04:45 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Your conclusions regarding the vaccinated resulting in the number of Covid deaths is directly refuted by the authors of the study. Yet you keep propagating false information.

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 26, 2021 05:16 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

No amount of peer-review can change the fact that the data is really, really old, sadly inaccurate and generally worthless by the time the study was published. The COVID landscape is changing very quickly, as evidenced by the fact that the masking mandates are returning only weeks after they were lifted. Also, how can authors refute 2 months of data that was not available to them at the time? Let's look at all of this in a few months, where I'll be proven correct---yet again!

a-1627349720 Jul 26, 2021 06:35 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Funny. Your correct/incorrect ratio so far is embarrassingly tiny.

But, as someone who concluded on June 25, at 11:39 PM, from a sample size of 42 people, that in the UK, "TWENTY NINE PERCENT OF FULLY VACCINATED PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE DELTA VARIANT!", you clearly lack the mathematical and reasoning skills necessary to make cogent comments on the subject of epidemiology.

a-1627350399 Jul 26, 2021 06:46 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

If you read the PHE report linked to, from which the FUDdy conclusions are being made by our amateur epidemiologist, you will see the following (direct quotes):

"The specialist technical briefings contain early data and analysis on emerging variants and findings have a high level of uncertainty."

"Note case fatality rates are not comparable across variants"

"Hospitalisation data are subject to reporting delays as hospitals typically submit data once a month, although some may provide daily updates. The data show only cases who have been hospitalised and not those who are currently in hospital with COVID-19. As such, it is not appropriate for use for surveillance of those currently hospitalised with COVID-19. In addition, the data will not show cases who were directly admitted as inpatients without presenting to emergency care."

MarcelK Jul 26, 2021 09:58 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

"with an small net decrease in unvaccinated cases (-1.9%) and a rather large increase in fully vaccinated cases (+7.5%)." -- for the thousandth time: as percentage of the population that has been vaccinated grows, the percentage of cases that are vaccinated will grow ... with the absolute number of cases dropping. "MY CONCLUSIONS" -- are worthless because they inferences based on fundamental failures of logic.

MarcelK Jul 26, 2021 10:00 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

6:35 PM As I have noted several times, CSF doesn't understand the difference between "29% of X are Y" and "29% of Y are X" and apparently never will, because of the characteristic you point out.

ChemicalSuperFreak Jul 27, 2021 04:32 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Hi Bene. Full disclosure to clear up the air. I’m not anti-vax. In fact, just prior to COVID I went in for my Hep A/B and TDAP boosters. Had the lab check my childhood vaccine titers and when they came back low I got MMR boosters and my annual influenza vaccine too. I’m all caught up.

I do have legitimate, scientific concerns about the new COVID vaccines, the scale on which they’re being rolled out, and the pressure being applied on everyone to take them. Given the apparent emergency we’re in, I think these vaccines are totally appropriate for some people, though I also feel they’re totally inappropriate for others. I won’t go into details here out of the interest in keeping my reply brief and because I don’t want to start another argument.

It’s very nice to hear from you again. I do hope you’re well.

edney Jul 30, 2021 07:16 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

It isn't helpful to discussion to include the USA in discussions of Delta variant breakthroughs in India or UK using vaccines not legal in the US.
The UK vaccines may be perfectly fine, but please compare Delta variant breakthroughs on the vaccines we use here.

a-1627190180 Jul 24, 2021 10:16 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

And, like most posts by MM4865, the Portugal assertion is total social media lies.

https://fullfact.org/online/lisbon-portugal-covid-deaths/

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-07-09/covid-death-numbers-controversy/60916

SanNic Jul 25, 2021 02:56 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Perhaps every hospital should inform their communities that if an individual does not trust the vaccine , that individual has absolutely no business trusting the treatment used to fight covid once they catch it .

Don’t swamp the hospitals if you are not willing to trust the health care industrial complex on the front end to get yourself vaxxed. Go without 100%, or buy in and get the shot!

Channelfog Jul 26, 2021 05:23 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

MOUNTAIN- Welcome to the new fascism. Free speech no longer applies, you must say what they want to hear and believe what they tell you to believe. Of course this comment must not be allowed either.

PitMix Jul 26, 2021 07:50 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Free speech does not apply to a privately owned website. Nobody is preventing you from going out on your patio and shouting your misinformation, are they?

dw2000 Jul 26, 2021 08:35 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Free Speech: "the right to express information, ideas, and opinions free of government restrictions based on content and subject only to reasonable limitations (as the power of the government to avoid a clear and present danger) especially as guaranteed by the First and Fourteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution"

dw2000 Jul 26, 2021 08:44 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

Pitmax - you are right on the money. To add "The First Amendment only prohibits Congress – the legislative branch of the United States government – from abridging the right to free speech. ... The First Amendment does not prohibit private individuals, companies and employers from restricting speech." So all these social media sites are well within their rights to remove any content they so choose. Also, free speech does not mean people are immune from criticism. If someone puts forth a proposition, others can use their free speech to criticize it.

sacjon Jul 26, 2021 08:48 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

CHANNEL - I just breezed through MOUNTAINMAN's deleted comments. The few of the many I read, were deleted because of foul language, references to 1930s Germany, fake news about the vaccine and many more reasons..... all violations of Edhat's policies. They were not completely removed, everyone can go read them if they want. Go cry on Parler if you feel rules should not apply to you. Snowflake.

ZeroHawk Jul 27, 2021 09:23 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

channelfog...really? i'm one to stand up to fascism in a heartbeat, but your comment is just lame and has nothing to do with freedom of speech or fascism, nor does a public mandate, nor does COMMON SENSE. get vaxed, wear a mask/err on the side of caution, wash your hands.

sacjon Jul 26, 2021 09:16 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

To all of you complaining and nitpicking about numbers, again: Why? What's the point? If there is a risk out there, make the tiniest effort to protect yourself and others. Wear a mask indoors if required to. It's not hard, it's easy. Who cares the precise # of infections or rates or anything? Make life easier on yourself and stop nitpicking everything and play it safe, even if it's not EXACTLY as dangerous or effective as "your numbers" conclude. It's exhausting in here.

ZeroHawk Jul 26, 2021 09:48 AM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

cmon people....time to set the weird conspiracies aside and get vaxed. wear your mask, wash your hands. kinda ridiculous that we are here once again. Are we so bad that we can't think of others, think of our kids, of our elderly and weak, that we risk everything and everyone and not get vaxed and complain about a mask? it's better than dying.

Basicinfo805 Jul 26, 2021 06:58 PM
Increase in COVID-19 cases are very concerning

JUST…GET…VACCINATED. And if you don’t, I won’t be wearing one “for you” and oh yeah, you’re a loser who is risking: my kid’s chance to go back to school and live a normal childhood, as well as the overall well-being of our society as a whole.

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