Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier title=
Statewide metrics of county color designations as of June 8, 2021 (courtesy)
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Source: Santa Barbara County Public Health Department

Santa Barbara County has met the State’s Yellow Tier case rate and positivity rate allowing movement into the less restrictive Yellow Tier, effective Wednesday, June 09, 2021 at 8 a.m. A new Health Officer Order will be issued which includes guidance on business operations in the Yellow Tier. The new Health Officer Order will further ease restrictions and allow more indoor activities, in accordance with the rules and framework of the Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

To qualify for the Yellow Tier, a region must have an adjusted case rate less than 2 cases per every 100,000 residents, a testing positivity rate of less than 2%, and less than 2.2% positive tests for the health equity quartile. Santa Barbara County’s adjusted case rate is 0.9 cases per every 100,000 residents, the positivity rate stands at 0.7%, and the positive tests for the health equity quartile stand at 1.0%.

“The vaccines are working and the State will be lifting most restrictions beginning June 15. In particular masking except for in many workplaces, will become optional states Dr. Henning Ansorg, Health Officer for Santa Barbara County. “We all play an important part in defeating this virus and the community as a whole is safer the more persons are fully vaccinated. The vaccines have been shown to be very safe and effective even against newer variants of the virus. If you haven’t done so already, please get vaccinated today.”

Here are some of the changes allowed under the Yellow Tier as listed in the Blueprint for a Safer Economy Activities Chart:

·       Restaurants: Indoor seating increases to 50% capacity or 200 people maximum (whichever is less).

·       Gyms and Fitness Centers: 50% capacity indoors; saunas and steam rooms can open.

·       Wineries and Breweries: 50% capacity or 200 people indoors maximum (whichever is less).

·       Movie Theaters: 50% capacity.

·       Museums, Zoos and Aquariums: Open indoors with modifications.

·       Places of Worship: 50% capacity indoors with modifications.

·       Bars with no food service: Open indoors with modifications, 25% capacity or 100 people maximum (whichever is less).

·       All retail: No capacity limits.

 

For more information about the COVID-19 response locally, please visit https://publichealthsbc.org or call 2-1-1.

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dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 06:40 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

How... where so? Everyone is of truly profound value and significance... but what does that have to do with a sickness that is wildly discriminatory (by age) in who it targets? More Floridians died per total capita of Covid... but more Californians (per capita) of each and every age demographic died from it than Floridians.

Think clearly and look at the numbers.. more died per 100k in every age group... we “beat” Florida at the finish line not because we had less deaths by any age group... but because we have a lot less of the age group that does from Covid.

Still a mathematic impossibility? or did you find a calculator and actually get around to doing some math...?

a-1623375538 Jun 10, 2021 06:38 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

The people who insist on breaking things down by age are making a major mistake in that the percentage of some subcategory of the population that died is not the same number as its deaths per 100K of the overall population. They need to apply a conversion factor to deaths per 100K of the total population to make their argument valid, and then it wouldn't support their position. It's all just a case of believing what they want to believe, rather than what's real.

a-1623373570 Jun 10, 2021 06:06 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

False analogy, as anyone who thinks about it can clearly see. Unless you think some people have less value than others.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 05:51 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Yes I cited that CDC data. Are you able to pull it up by age? If so... great! You are on your way to discovery! So literally every single age demographic (when taken individually) has more deaths per 100k in California than Florida. Can you “cherry pick” an age group that California did better in? The answer is no. Literally... and again we’re beating a dead horse here... the only thing California did better was HAVE LESS OLD PEOPLE! We killed every single age demo off at a higher rate... we just have a lot more kids who don’t die than Florida... and a lot less senior citizens that do!

I get that you are bewildered here... but baby steps... open up the age demo’s... you can do it! Let me know what you find...

a-1623372135 Jun 10, 2021 05:42 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

173 is the deaths per 100K population in Florida.
158 is the deaths per 100K population in California.

Both numbers are easily seen at the CDC COVID tracker page, valid as of June 10.

Without obfuscating and paltering by cherry picking age categories, please explain how Florida's results were better for its citizens. The only possible explanation is that you think more deaths per 100K is a better outcome.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 05:22 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Will you be so kind (when you realize it) to confirm here via edhat that the (mathematically) “impossible” happened... and... if possible... if you could say it in your best Kevin Garnett voice it would truly be appreciated.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 05:04 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

I get that you aren’t one for stats but check out the CDC data. Here’s a riddle for you:

Two people each separately invest 1 million dollars in the stock market. They each bought 10 stocks. Each and every one of Person A’s individual stocks had a higher percentage gain than each and every one of Person B’s... yet person B ended up with more money...how did that happen?

(Hint: it kind of matters how much was invested in each stock...)

a-1623369556 Jun 10, 2021 04:59 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

It is a mathematical impossibility to do worse in every subcategory while doing better overall, unless in your corner of existence 173 is smaller than 158.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 04:56 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Look at the numbers!!!!! California did worse in every... single... demographic! There literally isn’t anything to cherry pick...every demographic died at a lower rate than California. We just have more of the people (the young) who don’t die (and yes the young died at a higher rate in CA too... it’s just such a small percentage in either/e be my state that the massive additional numbers of youth, even at a slightly worse percentage help California).

We did worse! We just have less retired and elderly folk...

Voice of Reason Jun 10, 2021 03:54 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Great example with the schools vs. retirement community. You're naysayers won't accept it though because they just like to argue and will NEVER change their view. Hopefully other readers will appreciate it.

Voice of Reason Jun 10, 2021 03:21 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Those are solid data points Duke posted and you must be intentionally missing what he very clearly laid out. Had CA had the same % of elderly as FL, a larger fraction of CA's populace would have died than FL's.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 03:20 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

256pm - California killed a higher percentage in EVERY SINGLE DEMOGRAPHIC. Look at the CDC data...its irrefutable. We have more kids...who don't die from COVID. I'm sorry for presenting CDC numbers and stats that require a calculator.

Tell me...How is it mathematically impossible? I'll make it easy for you: If you essentially cant die from COVID when you are 18 and under, and you have an exponentially higher death rate when you are over 65....who's going to do better, a nursing home or an elementary school? If you combined a thousand elementary schools and compared them to a thousand senior homes, who's going to do better? Now take that simplified lesson to a larger population. 20.5% of Florida's population is over 65, compare that with California's 14.3%. I

But again...look at the numbers and tell me why the CDC numbers are mathematically impossible? This could be your first exercise in stats since High School...could be fun (and if you do it, will be illuminating as what you thought was mathematically impossible is reality).

a-1623362186 Jun 10, 2021 02:56 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

2:28:

The simple fact that Florida killed a larger fraction of its populace pretty much refutes everything you said about Florida doing better and also did better in every age group. You just continue to throw spam at the fan in hopes of obscuring the fact that what you claim is mathematically impossible.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 02:28 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

10:14pm - How so? You anonymously chime in with something, but it's never anything that refutes it with numbers or logic. The numbers are clear...more people died in every demographic in California than Florida. We just have so many more of the kids who died in CA .0000034% of the time (.00000326% in Florida) and less of the over 65's who died in CA .0078% of the time (.0062135% Florida).

If our over 65's had died at the rate they did in Florida (.0062135%) only 37,281 people over 65 would have died...10,000 less!

Millions of additional kids and young adults (who still died at a higher rate than in Florida) help our cause...they died at a higher rate here...but since the rate is so minimal for under 40 that all those additional millions boost us (in comparison to Florida).

Do you have any math you want to bring up...or just anonymously be corrected and wait for the next topic to be (anonymously) completely wrong again?

a-1623358599 Jun 10, 2021 01:56 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

11:57 - Funny thing, then, that you were pushing the social media misinterpretation of the decrease in rate brought about by masking, and claiming it was a decrease in totals, and therefore minimal.

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 08:39 AM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

So to answer your question, no... California looks worse. All those shutdowns and closures and we killed a higher percentage in each demo. Your favorite game... lying with numbers AND without them!

dukemunson Jun 10, 2021 08:37 AM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Pitmix - I don’t know why I ask, but what are you talking about???!! Those are the CDC numbers... and when you convert them all to percents, More in each demographic died in California. Are you refuting them in some capacity? And again... what’s the r fatality rate again? Still pushing that lie of 3 to 5% to justify the schools closing for over a year...?

PitMix Jun 10, 2021 07:03 AM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Since way more people want to live in CA than FLA, your numbers should be converted to percents, in which case FLA looks worse, right? Victims of our own popularity. Lying with numbers again, the favorite 'con game.

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 10:14 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Does CDC data from today work for you?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

So lets dive in! As per the CDC (from today!!!):

Deaths from Covid by age:

Florida 0 to 17 - 14 deaths
California 0 to 17 - 34 deaths

Florida 18 to 29 - 129 deaths
California 18 to 29 - 362

Florida 30 to 39 - 339 deaths
California 30 to 39 - 1113 deaths

Florida 40 to 49 - 980 deaths
California 40 to 49 - 2871 deaths

Florida 50 to 64 - 4968 deaths
California 50 to 64 - 13,103 deaths

Florida 65 to 74 - 7652 deaths
California 65 to 74 - 14,721 deaths

Florida 75 to 84 years - 10,368 deaths
California 75 to 84 years - 15,853 deaths

Florida over 85 - 9941 deaths
California over 85 - 16,658

So Florida (while having a little more than 1/2 the population of California) has roughly 1/3 the number of deaths in each age group of California, until you get to the age group that is succombing to COVID (over 65). Combining the ages over 65 in total deaths you get:

California total deaths over 65 - 47,232
Florida total deaths over 65 - 27,961

California has 6 million people over the age of 65, to Florida 4.5 million. So Florida has 75% of California's senior population, yet they only have 59% of it's senior fatalities.

It's actually rather simple and obvious (which is why I'm guessing you went anonymous). There are 10 million kids under 18 in California and 4.3 million in Florida. So, the death rate in California for kids under 18 is:

California death rate of Covid under 18 whole population: .0000034% (34 total)
Florida death rate of Covid under 18 whole population: .00000326% (14 total)

So more kids under 18 died of covid in California than Florida (if we had Florida's numbers 1.4 kids would still be alive...though not sure how that .4 kid would look). But since death at this age is so rare, this slightly worse percentage actually boosts California's numbers as you are multiplying a slightly higher percentage over an extra 5.7 million people. This repeats over each demographic.

I'm assuming you didn't keep reading...it's not that fun when you think you are right and ask someone to show their work and then...they show their work (via the undisputed world recognized source) and you are shown to be completely wrong.

In the end California has less deaths per 100k because we have so many millions of additional kids and 20-50 year olds. They died (as per the CDC data from today) in a slightly higher percentage in California across the board...but since we have twice the population of Florida but substantially less than twice the elder population...our per 100k is "better". You had a higher chance of dying in every single age group of Covid if you lived in California...but since the average age in California is 36.5 (to Florda's 42)...we get that little victory. Here's that CDC link again...you wont go...but maybe someone will...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

a-1623289862 Jun 09, 2021 06:51 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Here's a simple exercise. Visit and see for yourself.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsinlast7days

Data as of June 9, 2021 3:26 PM EDT

Hover over Florida on the map.

Total deaths/100K = 173

Hover over California on the map.

Total deaths/100K = 158

So, it would be really interesting to see what sort of math was
used to come to the conclusion that Florida did better across "every
age group", yet still managed to achieve more deaths per capita of
its inhabitants than California (even with DeSantis' thumb on the
scale of the Florida Department of Health).

Show your work. No fair scrounging data from months ago or cherry
picking a single age group.

sacjon Jun 09, 2021 05:41 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

DUKE - I will agree that shutting everything down temporarily when it was spiraling out of control at the start was probably a good thing, but not for the duration they did. We had to stop the spread quickly and we knew nothing about the virus. So yeah, I think it might have saved some lives. BUT... schools should have been open in September though, as well as outdoor dining with distancing. We didn't know, nobody knew, so harping on leaders who were SOLELY trying to protect the masses doesn't do any good. We learned and adapted. See where we are now. Now for the love of Pete, you and VOR need a new hobby or obsession. We're good and fine now, no need to dwell on past mistakes!

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 05:27 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Who died in California and Florida? Overwhelmingly it was those over 65. How about let’s compare an elementary school with an retirement community... where do you think there were more fatalities? Over 20% of Florida is over 65 (compared with 14%) in California..

We literally did worse in every age group...

a-1623283693 Jun 09, 2021 05:08 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Cherry picking combined with pretzel logic and innumeracy results in someone who thinks killing more people per capita is a better result.

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 04:54 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Sac - I think there is a valid concern there as there are a lot of people (including here on edhat) who are convinced closing schools and businesses “saved us” and would advocate for the exact same response!

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 04:04 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Nope...we did worse in every age demographic...all we can pat ourselves on the back for is that we are such a crappy place to retire that we have quite a few less older people. HOORAY US!

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 03:58 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

We actually did worse in every category...the only thing we did better in is that we have less old people and more young people...so by virtue of having quite a few more of the people who basically aren't affected by Covid, and quite a few less of the people who actually are affected by Covid one could on an anonymous forum cherry pick and say California did better than Florida. It's inaccurate and refuted flat out by the CDC data, but it is fun to pat ourselves on the back!

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 03:53 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Nope! If California had the same population demographics as Florida, many more Californians would be dead.

Of the 586k deaths in the US, 467k have been people over 65 (and all but 26k have been over 50). Florida's population is 20% over 65 while California's is 14%.

In California 47,232 people over the age of 65 died of Covid (out of 5,669,000)
In Florida 27,961 people over the age of 65 died of Covid (out of 4,358,000)

So...if we had Florida's numbers (.00641% of total elderly population dying) 11k less Californians over the age of 65 would be dead. But maybe you are OK with that...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/

a-1623278093 Jun 09, 2021 03:34 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

If Florida's results were analogous to ours, over 3200 more Floridians would still be alive. If California's results were analogous to Florida's, over 5900 more Californians would be dead. Yeah, you're cherry picking.

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 03:24 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Cherry picking?????? Virtually everyone that dies from COVID is elderly...that is the EXACT OPPOSITE OF CHERRY PICKING!!!! How do you not see that????? Wait a second...is that you Sac just testing to see if the most insane (though I appreciated the randomness of the choice) post possible about COVID brings me back in???

sacjon Jun 09, 2021 03:23 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

DUKE - yes, man! I get the irritation, and I'll probably still give VOR some guff, but time to move one. Getting my firework stash ready and beers chilling for a fun summer!

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 03:20 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Sac - You truly are right my friend...it's just...it gets the blood boiling when people try and pull the smug victory lap for California in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. Pit is basically pulling the edhat version of George W's "Mission Accomplished". The school board is pretending like everything they did was write and patting themselves on the back!!! GRRRRRRR!!! Numbers matter...right? Or then again maybe what matters is a cold one on a beautiful (slightly windy) day while the little ones enjoy Summer...I'm with you...SERENITY NOW!!!!!!!!!

a-1623277097 Jun 09, 2021 03:18 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Is that cherry picking, or what? We killed more one-legged people of Ukrainian ancestry per 100K of population than Florida, so our policy is a big mistake?

sacjon Jun 09, 2021 03:01 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

DUKE - why does it matter anymore? We're open and everyone is out enjoying life again. Why does it matter if CA did the same as FL or TX? It really doesn't. We need to focus on the now, not the past. Come bring your passion to the fight against homeless concentration camps with me!

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 02:58 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

We killed more (per 100k) of the people (the elderly) who make up the vast majority of COVID deaths. So...your statement makes sense...as long as it's directed at California...

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 02:55 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

For some odd reason you think that by proving masks did something, that somehow means California's over the top insane response that involved schools closed for over a year was somehow right. They are not competing ideas...Masks made sense in many scenarios throughout the last year...but schools being closed for that long did not make sense.

a-1623275466 Jun 09, 2021 02:51 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Yeah, it's just a few more dead people, and the disparity is growing as time goes on and their rates remain high, but who cares about a few thousand more dead folks in an entire state?

dukemunson Jun 09, 2021 02:45 PM
Santa Barbara County Move to Yellow Tier

Except...the numbers aren't that different...and when you look at Florida's older population, Florida did AT LEAST as good as California...if not better. Now that's not saying masks don't have an effect...they do! Masks indoors during periods where things are spiking are invaluable. Same with targeted and specific shutdowns...think school for 2 weeks...not 13 months!

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