Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

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By edhat staff

The Santa Barbara County Public Health Department (PHD) reported four deaths and 61 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday.

Two individuals were 70+ years of age and two were 50-69 years. Three individuals had underlying health issues and one death was associated with an outbreak at a congregate care facility. The individuals resided in North County unincorporated, Orcutt, Goleta, and South County unincorporated.

There have now been 420 deaths. 

There are currently 352 active cases. Of those, 57 are hospitalized including 19 in the ICU.

More data can be found here: https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/

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a-1614916777 Mar 04, 2021 07:59 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

With such low case rates, it is difficult to understand why Santa Barbara County is still in purple tier.

Bmklou Mar 04, 2021 01:18 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

Time to look at the positive side- Yes, death is horrible and inevitable- This "virus" will be around for a long time- It did contribute in some way to the 452 deaths in a county of 500,000 people, but as a percentage it was only .09% of the total population! In the meantime, I prefer to look at the best of situations when I can- Just sayin!

dukemunson Mar 05, 2021 03:02 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

CSF - Every credible source points to at least 30% of COVID cases as being asymptomatic...and most of them say 40-50%. That's the accepted percentage RIGHT NOW!

As a "numbers guy" think about it, how can you begrudgingly accept that only 10% more people (3200) in all of SB county have had COVID than have been counted??? That's wildly illogical! Considering how few people were tested last Spring and Summer, the X number that are asymptomatic and the pretty decent percentage of people that weren't going to get tested for any reason (or treated) unless they became debilitatingly sick...and you obviously have quite a few more than 3200 total people in a county of 450k. As you have lamented many many times...we haven't tested enough. For most of the past year we've pretty much just tested a limited group of workers (like yourself) and people who felt ill. Thus the vast majority of asymptomatic people aren't being recorded here because they weren't tested. Add in all the peo

As for herd immunity. If you double our number of 32,000 you get... (drumroll)... 64k. I'll defer to you on the number necessary for herd immunity, but I'm fairly certain you'll agree that 64k in a county of 450k isn't it...

ChemicalSuperFreak Mar 05, 2021 01:52 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

DUKE: I'll just point out one observation that I've documented using the numbers provided by our county. During the holidays (11/24 /20 - 1/14/21) the number of tests results reported soared as people complied with requests to be tested as they gathered and traveled during this time. Daily testing reports went from an average of 1,500/day in the first week of November, to an average of 3,500/day in mid-December. During this time, the percent asymptomatics dropped from 10.3% to 7.0%. The more they tested, the fewer asymptomatics they found.

The CDC numbers you quoted, and those comments from Fauci, are from late spring and early summer of last year, when testing was scarce. Those numbers were further plagued by a confusion between the categories of presymptomatic and symptomatics. Lastly, those numbers were estimated after the fact by using data already collected, where at the time there was not a great effort during intake screening to discern the difference between these categories, or even define them properly. There is inherent danger in performing studies on data collected for an entirely different purpose than objective of the study.

I think when the dust settles you'll find that the asymtomatic cases were and are not as high as you think they are. They are largely age dependent, and though Santa Barbara has only detected a high of around 10% I'd grant that the national and worldwide average could be higher. However, there's no way that it's as high as you suggest when you wrote, "it’s closer to 50% (if not much higher)." As I've already pointed out, if that were true we'd already be approaching herd immunity and would not have experienced the holiday surge in cases.

dukemunson Mar 05, 2021 07:08 AM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

CSF - I re read your posts... carefully! Let me slightly rephrase: 20% being asymptotic is the absolute lowest of any study anywhere... and has generally been thrown out as wildly and uselessly low. I apologize for quoting that number as a baseline...it’s not. The CDC (conservatively) believes it to be 40%. So let’s go with that despite it being lower than most other quotable sources. Also, as I’m sure you would agree, a certain number of people with mild to moderate symptoms haven’t been tested...they simply stayed home and recovered. They weren’t going to a doctor or the hospital unless they basically couldn’t breathe anymore. So in addition to the asymptotic, your have to add a fair number that were never tested and only had mild symptoms. Let’s not forget that back in March, April and May of 2020 you basically couldn’t get a test and people were staying home through strokes to avoid hospitals and doctors. As such, and despite carefully Re-reading your post, you are still wrong my friend. There is no logical or possible way that Sb county only missed 3215 COVID positives in the county since March of 2020. That is obviously and definitively impossible (even with the great Ansorg in charge!). The actual case number in SB is at least double that (so let’s go with 65k)... bringing the fatality rate down much lower.

ChemicalSuperFreak Mar 05, 2021 05:05 AM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

DUKE: Please try and read carefully before reacting to my posts. I even invited you to check the numbers yourself. Here, let me do the math for you:

The 32,147 positive number already included the currently known 2,832 asymptomatics (8.8%). To this I added another 3,215, for a total of 6,047 (18.8%) asymptomatics, which makes a total of 35,362 positives to be generous. 420 deaths/35,362 positives x 100 = 1.19% mortality.

You wrote, “It’s at least 20%...,” which is not far off from my 18.8%, yet you finish your sentence by stating calling my calculation “dangerous misinformation”---when you literally just agreed with the justification behind my calculation.

dukemunson Mar 04, 2021 09:32 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

Right... but obviously CSF is wrong here. The asymptotic cases are scientifically proven to be more than 10%... csf claiming otherwise is obviously and definitively wrong. It’s at least 20%... and pretty much everyone says it’s closer to 40-50%... it’s dangerous misinformation... not sure why csf is pushing this disproven craziness.

Bene Mar 04, 2021 08:18 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

Well, there is amateur analysis and then there is competent analysis done by those who may not be in the "public eye" but are trained scientists. I would be more inclined to believe a scientist/researcher/physician well trained in his or her field who has NOT been incentivized for bias.

dukemunson Mar 04, 2021 08:12 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

CSF- I’m kind of surprised with how disappointed I am with you... I really hoped/thought more of you. Obviously... definitively... the asymptotic cases of COVID are more than 10%. Literally everyone understands and accepts that. What are you talking about? It’s at least 30%... with pretty much everyone thinking it’s closer to 50% (if not much higher). Please take a step back and look at the science. I’m actually kind of embarrassed for you right now... seriously... take a gander through the science... it’s obviously much higher than 10%... there literally is a worldwide consensus here... pull it together man!!!!

a-1614907226 Mar 04, 2021 05:20 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

There's nothing more authoritative in the social media age than amateur analysis, guaranteed agenda-free!

ChemicalSuperFreak Mar 04, 2021 05:04 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

Duke: I'm getting the asymptomatic percentage from the Santa Barbara Public Health Department status page. We hit peak of 10.3% asymptomatic at the end of October, and you can easily verify this right now by going to the status page entries and dividing the asymptomatic cases by the total positives and multiply by 100.

I prefer to do the calculations myself, based on actual testing data, rather than listen to someone who may potentially have an agenda. Furthermore, UCSB did some surveillance on this topic last spring, and as a UCSB community member you probably recall the study from the Arias lab. They asked the UCSB community, without symptoms, to come in and get tested. They determined a prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 to be about 1.0% in their study population (1). Additionally, the FDA has used prevalence of 5% when issuing the EUAs for diagnostics. Lastly, I don't believe a single word that comes out of the mouth of Fauci, or many of the bureaucrats at the CDC for that matter. Do your own homework.

(1) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/10/01/2020.08.06.20169771.full.pdf

dukemunson Mar 04, 2021 03:27 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

CSF - Where are you seeing or coming up with 10% as the highest recorded asymptomatic percentage? The lowest I've seen is 30%, with Fauci and the CDC saying 40-50%. And there have been a certain number of studies that have pegged it quite a bit higher (up to 80 to 90%).

dukemunson Mar 04, 2021 03:19 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

CSF - You have posted many times on here critiquing the testing in place in SB...and the at times quite high percentage of positive cases indicating greater community spread. As such, do you honestly think "only" 3200 people in all of SB County have had COVID but are not part of the positive tested 32k? If so...you should be singing Ansorg's praises everywhere you go as that's an amazing level of testing competence!!!!! In the real world though, the general thought is that at least 50% of people who have it are going untested. So why don't we go ahead and halve it to .685% which...incidentally is...at the high end of the presumed and accepted infection fatality rate. It's either that or again...Ansorg is the greatest public health official in America and really did test and account for 90% of people with Covid.

ChemicalSuperFreak Mar 04, 2021 03:02 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

Duke: Sure, I'll allow for about a 10% error on that number, as the highest recorded asymptomatic percentage was around 10%. Adding 10% more cases lowers the mortality to 1.19%. It's still a far cry from the 0.09% that BMKLOU stated. And please don't start with the 90% of people had it and don't know BS, because we'd have herd immunity by now if that was true.

dukemunson Mar 04, 2021 01:47 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

But 1.37% isn't accurate either...as it assumes that every single person with COVID was tested and accounted for. Obviously quite a few additional people had it that were never tested, which is why 1.37% is also inaccurate.

ChemicalSuperFreak Mar 04, 2021 01:39 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

First, the population of the county is 456,373, so you're off by 8.7%. Second, not everyone in the county tested positive for COVID, so when calculating the mortality you cannot include people who never had the virus. There have been 32,147 positive cases in the county (as of yesterday's numbers), bringing the mortality to 1.37%.

I also like to look at the best of situations when I can, but I'm at least honest when it comes to the numbers.

Voice of Reason Mar 04, 2021 01:33 PM
Four COVID-19 Deaths Wednesday

I like how you view things BMK, we could use some more positivity around here.

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