61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

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By edhat staff

The Santa Barbara County Public Health Department is reporting 61 new COVID-19 cases over the weekend and 2 additional deaths.

The deaths were in the City of Santa Maria. One individual was between the ages of 30-49 and one individual was between the ages of 50-69. Both had underlying medical conditions and neither was associated with an outbreak at a congregate living facility.

There have now been 122 COVID-19 related deaths within the county. There are 9 hospitalizations with two in the intensive care unit (ICU).

There have now been 9,820 positive cases with 118 cases currently active. 

More details can be found at https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/

 

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a-1603999872 Oct 29, 2020 12:31 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DuMun is only logical if you think repeating the same dodgy statistic that's not a true measure of mortality over and over makes it true, and claiming anything else is a lie.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 12:41 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The "dodgy statistic" is literally the statistic all scientists and researchers are operating on/via. When we didn't test anyone...do you think that the only people that had it died? Honestly it's probably not your fault... science and logic aren't really taught or respected these days...

a-1604000808 Oct 29, 2020 12:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Not really a statistic that anyone in the medical profession relies on, but used very early on in the pandemic to try to get a handle on things. Now that we have more data, other metrics predominate. But you'll keep repeating it, and attacking anyone who corrects you.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:01 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Your not correcting anyone though...you are literally trying to misinform people! The accepted mortality rate is .6%. THAT'S A BIG SCARY/DANGEROUS number!!! But stop exaggerating it! It's like saying masks are useless...they obviously aren't useless!!! Stop being the idiot on the other side though that is desperately misleading people the other way. TRUST THE SCIENTISTS ON THIS ONE (and well, all ones going forward)!!!!!!

a-1604001988 Oct 29, 2020 01:06 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

These are the statistics people should pay attention to, not the fuzzy estimates of mortality rate based on guesses as to the number of actual infections that have occurred.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/cases-deaths-hospitalizations-how-to-make-sense-of-covid-19-stats

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:17 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Good article (if somewhat dated at 3.5 months old). What jumped out to me was the below quote, which is exactly what I'm talking about!

One of the most useful numbers to determine isn’t the sheer number of cases, but rather the percentage of tests that come back positive, or simply the percent positive.

According to Johns Hopkins University, positive COVID-19 tests in the United States surged to nearly 22 percent at the end of March when testing wasn’t as widely available and was being reserved for hospitalized patients.

Those numbers dipped to around 4 percent in June as more people were being tested — such as essential workers with asymptomatic infections — but as of Wednesday had a 7-day average of 8.7 percent.

Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Maryland, says, for example, if testing in an area shows 10 percent of people have the virus, then the infection is now “out of control.”

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:21 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

And you are right...these are some of the numbers scientists are looking at...your just missing the thought/idea that they are then using those numbers to actually figure things out. In essence...you've shown that you can read numbers. You don't have any idea what to do with those numbers...but you are able to look at numbers and letters and discern the difference, and that's great...I'm working with my 3 year old on that very concept...it's not easy!!

a-1604010233 Oct 29, 2020 03:23 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

1:17 pm: Yes! You should look at the test result positives! But not at the guesses at positives in the untested population, as you keep blathering to try to water down the severity of the pandemic.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 03:42 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The "guesses" are all scientific models designed to understand a pandemic...does that not register in any capacity?

But let's explore and dive in! We have an interesting and instructive local example: The Lompoc Correctional facility. In it, there were 1026 cases and 3 deaths. This obviously makes sense (well to everyone but you), because you had a controlled environment and everyone was tested. The number of .3% is in line with projections for the demographic.

I'd be curious to see how would you look at that number? Perhaps convicted felons are immune (like the North Koreans) to Covid-19?

We are in a pandemic. It's dangerous and terrible and life altering. It's 10 times as dangerous as the flu (as per Dr. Fauci). But say that...say the truth...don't change or exaggerate it...and yeah dont water it down either...just say the truth...it's a good maxim to live by.

Voice of Reason Oct 29, 2020 04:12 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Hold on Duke, let's not misconstrue that Pitmix / Fauci quote. He did not say covid is 10 times as dangerous as the flu. -- A 1% mortality rate “means it is 10-times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” Fauci said. “I think that’s something people can get their arms around and understand.” -- He did not say Covid has a 1% mortality rate, he was just using that as an example he uses to better help laymen understand. So the 0.3% would mean covid is 3 x as deadly as the flu. Deadly, yes, so deadly we need to close schools for 8+ months, force businesses into bankruptcy, launch unemployment into the stratosphere, and forever widen the income and execution gap, I say hell no. Especially when that .3% number drops for the young (as bad or not even as bad as the flu) and increases for the old (wow that's dangerous, better focus our resources protecting them).

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 04:41 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The projections at this point (population wide) say .6%

That number goes up exponentially for over 70 year olds and down exponentially for kids.

MountainMan4865 Oct 27, 2020 04:27 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

On the other hand - Friday, there were 129 cases and 17 hospitalizations with 3 in the ICU. As of today, with the additional 61 new cases.... 118 cases and 9 hospitalizations - 2 in the ICU. So a significant number (72?) dropped off the case load over the weekend.

macpuzl Oct 27, 2020 04:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

A worthwhile article comparing SARS, COVID-19, and influenza pandemic mortality:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext

letmego Oct 28, 2020 09:32 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

There have been at least 21 deaths of people without underlying conditions. I have been keeping a spreadsheet of deaths as reported by the PHD.

99 yes, 21 no, 6 unknown (not reported)

ChemicalSuperFreak Oct 28, 2020 10:23 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

These days, almost everyone has a qualifying underlying health condition due to the general poor health of our population. Lots of people are overweight, for example.

sblocal1967 Oct 28, 2020 12:02 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Does anyone know if there are stats on the types of underlying health conditions people have/had who have been hospitalized or died with Covid? And what % do/did not underlying health conditions.
I am assuming there would be similarities with people who get hit hard with the common flu.

PitMix Oct 28, 2020 04:08 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Table 3 of https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities

Dr. Fauci says covid is at least 10 times more deadly than the worst flu virus since the 1918 pandemic.

Voice of Reason Oct 28, 2020 04:58 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Last time I checked in 2020 the flu had killed more people under the age of 18 than Covid. The stats show for the young, the flu is more dangerous. This is the opposite for the elderly as covid is much earlier than the flu. The elderly get both ends of the short stick as the flu is also very dangerous for them.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 05:20 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Do you mean this quote?

A 1% mortality rate “means it is 10-times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” Fauci said. “I think that’s something people can get their arms around and understand.”

GeneralTree Oct 28, 2020 09:31 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Death rates increase when hospitals become overwhelmed as they have to choose who to treat. With a "do nothing" strategy we stand to lose a million people by this time next year. The low information populists pushing phony public health info are criminals and should be treated as such.

PitMix Oct 29, 2020 09:03 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Utah is already implementing the dreaded "death panels" that repubs warned us about in the 90s when they were trying to offer universal healthcare. But this time it is the repubs implementing them, so it is okay, I guess. Don't tell anyone about your underlying health conditions when you go to the hospital or they might put you on the soylent green list.

Voice of Reason Oct 29, 2020 01:27 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Glad you brought up Utah. Their hospitalizations per million are lower than NJ's currently and they still do not have a statewide mask mandate. A lot of panic porn out there right now regarding Utah's covid hospitalizations, be careful what you read in the media (disclaimer: the media is not a news organization but a FOR PROFIT enterprise with the #1 goal of making money. Do you think a headline that reads "everting is OK" or "Utah hospitals could start rationing health care" would make them more money via clicks, ads and viewers? )

a-1604023257 Oct 29, 2020 07:00 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

1:27: What a bizarre attitude. The fact that Utah's hospitals are being overwhelmed by the pandemic, and they may have to start triage on incoming patients isn't newsworthy? Just be glad you don't live in a state that resisted public health advice for so long, and instead in one took steps to keep its citizens safer. Assuming you even live in California, and not Russia.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 08:13 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

As per the cdc’s latest model (it’s ugly if you are over 70!!)

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

a-1604028352 Oct 29, 2020 08:25 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Without giving the units you're working with for numerator and denominator to come up with those numbers, that's a pretty meaningless post! Are they furlongs per fortnight?

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 08:43 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Good point!!!!

It’s the CDC’s Infection Fatality Ratio

So if you are 70+, the CDC believes that if you catch Covid (on average) you have a 5.4% chance of dying from this thing (and on the other end, if you are 0-19 they are predicting you have a .003% chance). The CDC is averaging it out at .5% over all who get infected, which is a tad lower than the WHO (along with a few of the European and Asian models I’ve seen, which mostly say .55 to .65%).

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