61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

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By edhat staff

The Santa Barbara County Public Health Department is reporting 61 new COVID-19 cases over the weekend and 2 additional deaths.

The deaths were in the City of Santa Maria. One individual was between the ages of 30-49 and one individual was between the ages of 50-69. Both had underlying medical conditions and neither was associated with an outbreak at a congregate living facility.

There have now been 122 COVID-19 related deaths within the county. There are 9 hospitalizations with two in the intensive care unit (ICU).

There have now been 9,820 positive cases with 118 cases currently active. 

More details can be found at https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/

 

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macpuzl Oct 27, 2020 04:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

A worthwhile article comparing SARS, COVID-19, and influenza pandemic mortality:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext

MountainMan4865 Oct 27, 2020 04:27 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

On the other hand - Friday, there were 129 cases and 17 hospitalizations with 3 in the ICU. As of today, with the additional 61 new cases.... 118 cases and 9 hospitalizations - 2 in the ICU. So a significant number (72?) dropped off the case load over the weekend.

Voice of Reason Oct 27, 2020 11:35 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

There are currently ZERO Covid patients at Cottage Hospital, nine patients are split between Marian Regional Medical Center and Lompoc Valley Medical Center. This in a county of 440,000 people! What the heck are we doing?!? Why are our schools still closed?!? Why are so many okay with this abdication of personal responsibility?!?

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 04:41 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The projections at this point (population wide) say .6%

That number goes up exponentially for over 70 year olds and down exponentially for kids.

Voice of Reason Oct 29, 2020 04:12 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Hold on Duke, let's not misconstrue that Pitmix / Fauci quote. He did not say covid is 10 times as dangerous as the flu. -- A 1% mortality rate “means it is 10-times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” Fauci said. “I think that’s something people can get their arms around and understand.” -- He did not say Covid has a 1% mortality rate, he was just using that as an example he uses to better help laymen understand. So the 0.3% would mean covid is 3 x as deadly as the flu. Deadly, yes, so deadly we need to close schools for 8+ months, force businesses into bankruptcy, launch unemployment into the stratosphere, and forever widen the income and execution gap, I say hell no. Especially when that .3% number drops for the young (as bad or not even as bad as the flu) and increases for the old (wow that's dangerous, better focus our resources protecting them).

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 03:42 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The "guesses" are all scientific models designed to understand a pandemic...does that not register in any capacity?

But let's explore and dive in! We have an interesting and instructive local example: The Lompoc Correctional facility. In it, there were 1026 cases and 3 deaths. This obviously makes sense (well to everyone but you), because you had a controlled environment and everyone was tested. The number of .3% is in line with projections for the demographic.

I'd be curious to see how would you look at that number? Perhaps convicted felons are immune (like the North Koreans) to Covid-19?

We are in a pandemic. It's dangerous and terrible and life altering. It's 10 times as dangerous as the flu (as per Dr. Fauci). But say that...say the truth...don't change or exaggerate it...and yeah dont water it down either...just say the truth...it's a good maxim to live by.

a-1604010233 Oct 29, 2020 03:23 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

1:17 pm: Yes! You should look at the test result positives! But not at the guesses at positives in the untested population, as you keep blathering to try to water down the severity of the pandemic.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:21 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

And you are right...these are some of the numbers scientists are looking at...your just missing the thought/idea that they are then using those numbers to actually figure things out. In essence...you've shown that you can read numbers. You don't have any idea what to do with those numbers...but you are able to look at numbers and letters and discern the difference, and that's great...I'm working with my 3 year old on that very concept...it's not easy!!

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:17 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Good article (if somewhat dated at 3.5 months old). What jumped out to me was the below quote, which is exactly what I'm talking about!

One of the most useful numbers to determine isn’t the sheer number of cases, but rather the percentage of tests that come back positive, or simply the percent positive.

According to Johns Hopkins University, positive COVID-19 tests in the United States surged to nearly 22 percent at the end of March when testing wasn’t as widely available and was being reserved for hospitalized patients.

Those numbers dipped to around 4 percent in June as more people were being tested — such as essential workers with asymptomatic infections — but as of Wednesday had a 7-day average of 8.7 percent.

Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Maryland, says, for example, if testing in an area shows 10 percent of people have the virus, then the infection is now “out of control.”

a-1604001988 Oct 29, 2020 01:06 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

These are the statistics people should pay attention to, not the fuzzy estimates of mortality rate based on guesses as to the number of actual infections that have occurred.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/cases-deaths-hospitalizations-how-to-make-sense-of-covid-19-stats

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 01:01 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Your not correcting anyone though...you are literally trying to misinform people! The accepted mortality rate is .6%. THAT'S A BIG SCARY/DANGEROUS number!!! But stop exaggerating it! It's like saying masks are useless...they obviously aren't useless!!! Stop being the idiot on the other side though that is desperately misleading people the other way. TRUST THE SCIENTISTS ON THIS ONE (and well, all ones going forward)!!!!!!

a-1604000808 Oct 29, 2020 12:46 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Not really a statistic that anyone in the medical profession relies on, but used very early on in the pandemic to try to get a handle on things. Now that we have more data, other metrics predominate. But you'll keep repeating it, and attacking anyone who corrects you.

dukemunson Oct 29, 2020 12:41 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

The "dodgy statistic" is literally the statistic all scientists and researchers are operating on/via. When we didn't test anyone...do you think that the only people that had it died? Honestly it's probably not your fault... science and logic aren't really taught or respected these days...

a-1603999872 Oct 29, 2020 12:31 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DuMun is only logical if you think repeating the same dodgy statistic that's not a true measure of mortality over and over makes it true, and claiming anything else is a lie.

Shmonk Oct 29, 2020 11:39 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DM - all of your points in this thread track and have been completely logical. Not sure why anyone would want to lie/embellish in order to make things seem worse than they are. Nobody here is denying covid...

PitMix Oct 29, 2020 09:07 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

227000 people dead. 8.2M infected (CFR). 2.6% fatality rate. Data from Oct 27, not April like DM's link. Cannot find any reliable data on DM's beloved IFR numbers or the death undercount. Probably both factors cancel each other out.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 05:09 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

You were anti CDC on your last post... common Pitmix... at least be consistent in your misinformation... err wait that might defeat some of your purpose..

Yes your right, every single Covid positive person has been tested and accounted for. That just holds to reason... I mean obviously...

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 05:04 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

What about the cdc’s .7%? Did you not like that link so just ignore it... pretend like it didn’t happen? CDC... Are they fringe or crazy or can we trust that...?

PitMix Oct 28, 2020 03:59 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DM, did you even read the Forbes link? More caveats than a pre-nup, and they are basing most of their conclusions on Indiana data from April . (Note to self, stop interacting with people that post links that don't support their arguments. ) . I know you love to say IFR but I don't see how you can put any stock in those numbers as the number of asymptomatic infections are just wild a$$ guesses (WAGs). They sample a few people, and extrapolate out to the entire population. WAG.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 12:09 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Links Links Links for the poet Pitmix:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/09/26/what-is-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-coronavirus-what-this-study-found/#3e3870de5c46

Via Forbes: The calculated IFR increased with age. It was 0.01 percent for those 12 to 40 years old, 0.12 percent for those 40 to 59 years old, and 1.71 percent for those 60 years and older. Men had a higher IFR than women (0.28 percent versus 0.21 percent).

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

Via the lesser of the two WHO's (can't speak or quote Roger Daltrey's findings at this point) - Serological testing of a representative random sample of the population to detect evidence of exposure to a pathogen is an important method to estimate the true number of infected individuals [7,8,9]. Many such serological surveys are currently being undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1%

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/oct/06/donald-trump/donald-trumps-false-claim-covid-19-less-deadly-flu/

Via the CDC (ok via PolitiFACT...but they are quoting the CDC). the infection death rate for COVID-19 is about 0.7%. That’s in the ballpark of other estimates, and would make the coronavirus more than 10 times more deadly than the flu. U.S. COVID-19 mortality by age

Estimated infection fatality rates

Chart
Age Rate
0-19 0.003%
20-49 0.02%
50-69 0.5%
70+ 5.4%

PitMix Oct 28, 2020 10:52 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

DM, I notice you never post a link to your very low numbers. Here is a direct quote from the CDC website "Since the week ending September 26 (MMWR week 39), overall weekly hospitalization rates have increased, driven primarily by an increase in rates among adults aged 50 years and older. Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 (PIC) for week 42 was 7.6% and, while declining, remains above the epidemic threshold. Hospitalization rates and PIC mortality for the most recent weeks are anticipated to increase as additional data are reported. www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html But I bet you don't believe them either.

ChemicalSuperFreak Oct 28, 2020 10:10 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Asymptomatics are not 95%, or we'd have herd immunity by now. Also, they've done random sampling of healthy individuals and do not see this 95%. Lastly, SB County asymptomatics are only at 10% right now.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 08:00 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

GO TO The CDC WEBSITE! It says the current estimate fatality rate is .6%!! This is because, unlike Pitmix, it can use logic beyond that of a 6 year old. The CDC, the WHO and all other scientific boards understand that not everyone has been tested. So to take just the number of positives and divide by death, is... well it’s dumb... it doesn’t tell you much. It’s like catching two fishing he ocean and since one is a halibut, saying 1/2 the fish in the ocean are Halibut. This is especially true in America as we completely bungled the Testing. So we know exponentially more people had/have it. I think you realize that too but you are all in on your “twist the numbers” for effect persona that you can’t stop yourself. But it’s dumb and wrong, and it lends all your posts as at best questionable and at worst as intentional misinformation. The sickness is real... wear a mask and let’s hope the next administration can get a handle on testing so we don’t lose .6% of too much more of our population...

PitMix Oct 28, 2020 07:42 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Amazing the VOR and DM want to contest the numbers. CDC website says 227000 deaths, 8.85M cases. That's 2.56%, down from about 2.7% last time I did the calc. This is a pretty simple calc using official numbers. If you don't want to accept the facts, I guess that is your right. Doesn't make sense to me, but people have died to protect your right to believe whatever you want.

dukemunson Oct 28, 2020 07:27 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

We’re at 9 million confirmed cases and 230k deaths. Everyone knows and agrees that quite a few people that have/had it were never tested. As such, the cdc and all scientific bodies at this point are putting the fatality rate at between .55% and .65%. Obviously this includes all people, so if you are 85 then that 3% number is probably right... an of you are 5 years old it’s more like .00005%. This tracks with all other countries. Again... it’s a crappy sickness that one shouldn’t take lightly... wear a mask!!! But stop using fake numbers to inflate it... that does a disservice to all. We are in a real pandemic... and it’s scary... lying to scare people further is wrong...

a-1603863551 Oct 27, 2020 10:39 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

And the number you are using is more imaginary than most with regard to mortality, especially since the percent of the population that has been infected is small, and since not everyone has been tested, you have to guess how many that is. To reduce your argument to its essentials: At a given time, if a disease X infects 5 people and kills them all, in a country of 100,000 people, you would give the number 5/100,000, or 0.005% for your mortality measure. Yet everyone who gets X dies. Seems a bit silly, doesn't it? Case fatality for X would be the correct 100%.

dukemunson Oct 27, 2020 08:34 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

We know that quite a few people that are infected are never tested.. the asymptotic 95%. As such, to take the total number and divide by deaths is silly. Using that method I can Make all kinds of dumb anecdotal arguments or points because it’s completely ignoring actual factual reality. Numbers matter... not perhaps to Pitmix... but to actual people that like the Edhat but get annoyed with the constant distortion of reality. Covid is real and scary... exaggerations and lies though are contemptible and should be called out

a-1603852771 Oct 27, 2020 07:39 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Deaths per 100,000 tells you more about how widespread it is than how deadly it is, since most people are uninfected at this point.

a-1603852559 Oct 27, 2020 07:35 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

You're not looking at the case fatality ratio. You're looking at deaths per 100,000 population.

dukemunson Oct 27, 2020 05:53 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

No... that’s just simply not true and not what the cdc says (is that you Pitmix going anonymous???). As per the cdc

“As of September 2020, the United States had similar COVID-19 mortality rates (60.3 per 100,000) as other high mortality countries”

Again, the scientific consensus is .6%... which is a huge number !!! But it’s not pitmix’s 3% or pitmix’s anonymous accounts 2.6%. USE THE HONEST AND REAL NUMBERS!!! It’s absolutely maddening to talk with the Covid deniers who say it’s the flu... but it’s just as maddening to deal with the crazies on the other side who just use wildly inflated numbers on purpose. COVID IS MUCH WORSE THAN THE FLU!!! The flu has a fatality rate of .1%... but stop with the BS of 3%... that’s just obvious and ridiculous lying.

Voice of Reason Oct 27, 2020 04:58 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

I fully understand the situation, thank you for making sure. The CDC and WHO have a good handle on the estimated number of total infections.

a-1603842758 Oct 27, 2020 04:52 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

We don't know how many people are infected, because of limits on testing, so you can only compute the case fatality ratio at this point. Even asymptomatic people test positive, and become cases used in that computation. Once again, you fail to understand the situation.

Voice of Reason Oct 27, 2020 04:47 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

With such a large number of asymptomatic people (up to several times the number of people who received positive tests) infection fatality rate not case fatality rate is the metric you should be looking at.

a-1603841698 Oct 27, 2020 04:34 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Seems like PitMix is, well, closer to the truth than some of our more prolix protagonists for letting the virus spread.

The case fatality ratios vary by country (data from Johns Hopkins):
Highest is Mexico at 10%
USA is 2.6%
Lowest is Czechia at 0.9 %

The CDC also gets 2.6% for the US case fatality ratio.

Fatality to infected ratio is not a valid number because of the limits on testing.

PitMix Oct 27, 2020 02:38 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

3% fatality rate on average, higher for people over 60. Quick, list the 3 people out of the 100 you know that you would like to die. And then send them a fat check for their medical care so I don't have to pay for it.

Voice of Reason Oct 27, 2020 10:42 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

When worn AND used appropriately, it does reduce transmission in a population. What all the studies that support mask use don't take into account, is that very few adults and nearly all children don't use masks appropriately. I believe as a result of the mask misuse we'll see that they end up increasing transmission in a population, specifically to those wearing a mask (you touch something, then your mask, you've potentially put the virus on a filter in front of your nose you'll then be inhaling through for the rest of the day). Thus the CDC cited report showing 70% of the covid patients in the study "always" wore a mask, another 15% "often" wore a mask.

giftedinSB Oct 27, 2020 08:59 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Wearing a mask does not protect you against contracting the virus; it protects others from being infected by you.

Shame Oct 27, 2020 08:26 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

CDC Report: 70.6% of COVID Patients Always Wore a Mask

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/10/27/cdc-report-covid-patients-always-wore-mask.aspx

ChemicalSuperFreak Oct 28, 2020 10:17 AM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Masks policies are "science based". I've already posted numerous peer-reviewed articles on this. The short answer is they are only about 90-95% effective, which is why over 500 of our local health care workers tested positive for COVID despite wearing PPE. Masks lower the risk, but do not eliminate it.

mtndriver Oct 27, 2020 06:17 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

Shame, Try reading the original CDC article, not the Mercola analysis. The CDC article says 70% of both the control and infected group reported wearing face masks most or all the time IN PUBLIC--not in private settings. 42% of those who were infected had close contact with other people (mostly family members) as opposed to only 14% of those who didn't get sick. Close contact, family members, no mask. People who had been to restaurants, bars or cafes were twice as likely to be infected. No masks while eating or drinking.... What the article was pointing to is that venues where masks are not warn are more risky for people. And this article was from July, just reprinted to correct an email error. Also very limited, only 314 people ended up being in the study, and mask usage self-reported. Three months old; there is more evidence now that masks are the best protection.

a-1603830368 Oct 27, 2020 01:26 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

At this point, anyone who thinks that masks are not a vital part of controlling this pandemic is either a complete fool or a propagandist for an even bigger fool.

Chip of SB Oct 27, 2020 12:35 PM
61 New COVID-19 Cases and 2 Deaths

12:20, if we are going to insist on compulsory mask wearing policies, then we should say these policies are “hypothetical possibility based” and not “science based.” Until the necessary studies are completed to verify a hypothesis, it remains hypothetical. Many scientists hypothesize that mask wearing increases transmission of the virus due to improper mask use. In addition, if a mask absorbs virus particles as intended, exhaling through the mask blows these accumulated particles all over the place, increasing virus transmission. Kind of like running your vacuum cleaner in reverse, what would happen to all that dust caught on the filter? Of course, additional research would be required to confirm this hypothesis.

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