California’s coastal waters could be heading toward a major disruption as scientists closely monitor warming conditions in the Pacific Ocean ahead of a powerful El Niño event.
In its latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) advisory, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center mentioned that above-average sea surface temperatures continue across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Forecasters expect El Niño conditions to develop soon, with an 82% possibility of the conditions emerging by July and continuing through winter. There is a nearly 96% chance of El Niño conditions lasting through December 2026 to February 2027, according to the weather service.
While it is too early to predict how powerful El Niño conditions will be this year, scientists are concerned about the impacts on California’s marine life.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that is characterized by the warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Under normal, non-El Niño conditions, trade winds blow from east to west along the equator. During El Niño conditions, the low-level surface winds weaken, or in some instances, begin to blow from west to east.
El Niño events can occur irregularly within intervals of two to seven years, with strong events being less likely to occur, according to the Encyclopaedia Britannica.
El Niño can have global impacts on weather, marine ecosystems, wildfires, and economies.
A strong El Niño event is usually associated with heavy rains and warm weather in Peru, drought in Indonesia, Africa, and Australia, torrential rain and mudslides in Southern California, and fewer hurricanes in the southeast, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW).
The most recent notable and intense El Niño events occurred in 1997-98 and in 2015-16.
How Does El Niño Affect Marine Life?
Under normal conditions, upwelling of deep, cold ocean water brings up nutrients that lie deep below, near the bottom. This is essential for ocean life along the California coast.
These nutrients feed plankton, fish populations, kelp forests, sea birds, and marine mammals.
Kelp forests thrive on cool, nutrient-dense water for their growth and survival.
During El Niño, the upwelling of cold water off the coast of the Americas is reduced, causing fish populations to either migrate to other areas or die. Kelp forests are often destroyed by ocean swells and storms, according to the CDFW.
As sea temperatures begin to rise off the California coast, it is already beginning to impact the ecosystem.
The International Bird Rescue in Fairfield has treated 288 starving birds, and several dead birds have been spotted on beaches, particularly in Southern California, according to a KQED report.
Citing Climate Central researchers, the report said that 45% of the Pacific Ocean has been experiencing conditions that are at least six times more likely due to human-caused warming.
If the sea temperatures become warmer, jellyfish, crabs, dolphins, sea turtles, and other species are expected to migrate to colder habitats, KQED reported, citing the U.S. Ocean Conservation at the Monterey Bay Aquarium.
Marine mammals, such as seals and sea lions, may also be impacted as their food supply shifts.
Beachgoers may see an increase in dead sea mammals, as well as stranded seals and sea lions along the coast.
As scientists continue monitoring Pacific Ocean conditions, Californians may soon witness the effects of El Niño not just through changing weather patterns, but also through visible shifts in marine life along the state’s coastline.
Marine life isn’t what anyone should be worried about. These are natural cycles. Man-made developments like Goleta Beach and all those apartments on the IV cliffs may be toast though. Mother Nature always wins. This could be an interesting year or so for fishing in our channel. Looking forward to it. Let’s see what it brings.
Who’s worried about marine life? I can’t wait to get out there for some yellowfin and dorado off places closer than San Diego for once! Booking some trips already.
during heavy el ninos, you can catch yellowtail and blue fin close to shore. during the 2015-16 super el nino, we caught several yellow tail in the marina….not kidding. a large school of them entered and swam around eating the bait fish. we kayaked around and found them, dropped line, hauled in two keeper sizes and filleted one on the docks. excellent sushi. ive even seen moray eels in the marina, a shark, a dolphin, one lingcod, and several sheepsheads and a ton of sandbass.
I remember dudes catching bonito and barracuda off the Wharf too. Yellowtail in the marina would be epic!