Developing El Niño Could Bring More Rain and Storms to California This Winter

California is likely to experience a wetter and more volatile winter as El Niño conditions officially develop in the Pacific.

Forecasters, however, warned that the climate pattern does not indicate a repeat of the state’s most dramatic rainy seasons.

El Niño has formed and is expected to strengthen through the latter half of the year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on June 11.

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 63% chance the event could intensify into a “very strong” El Niño during winter 2026-27.

In an earlier advisory, weather officials had noted that above-average sea surface temperatures continue across most parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Under normal, non-El Niño conditions, trade winds blow from east to west along the equator. During El Niño conditions, the low-level surface winds tend to weaken, or in some instances, begin to blow from west to east.

According to NOAA, the phenomenon can change atmospheric circulation patterns globally, influencing rainfall, temperatures, and storm tracks.

What Does It Mean for California?

For California, the biggest question is what that could mean for the upcoming winter.

Over the years, strong El Niño events have resulted in wetter conditions across parts of the state, particularly Southern California. Enhanced storm activity can bring periods of heavy rain, increased flood risk, and mountain snowfall.

However, meteorologists stressed that El Niño is not a guarantee of above-average precipitation.

California’s experience during previous strong El Niño events has varied considerably, SFGATE noted in a report. While some episodes caused damaging storms and widespread flooding, others did not produce the anticipated dramatic wet winters.

The 2015-16 El Niño, which was widely anticipated to bring exceptional rainfall and was dubbed the “Godzilla” El Niño, ultimately fell short of those forecasts in Southern California, according to SFGATE.

While a very strong El Niño phenomenon could potentially cause a wet winter in Southern California, local outcomes depend on several atmospheric factors beyond Pacific Ocean temperatures alone, according to a Los Angeles Times report.

NOAA’s latest forecast indicates that El Niño is expected to strengthen to at least a moderate intensity this fall, with the possibility of reaching strong levels during winter.

As California heads toward another rainy season, the developing El Niño events are likely to draw close attention from water managers, emergency officials, and residents alike.

While the climate pattern may raise the chances of a stormier winter and high tide flooding along the country’s West Coast, the warming sea patterns can also impact marine life.

Although El Niño may tilt the odds toward a stormier season, California’s experience will depend on how a complex mix of atmospheric factors unfolds in the months ahead.