On June 10, scientists from Stanford, MIT, and Western Michigan University published a study in Nature Climate Change.
While conducting the study, scientists analyzed all Southern California counties. Researchers placed each county in different tropical storm situations and found that each one demonstrates increased landslide risks from 2000 to 2050.
Out of the counties examined, Los Angeles County appears to be at the highest risk. In one of the scenarios, scientists concluded that over 75% of the county could be at risk for landslides.
Orange, San Diego, and San Bernardino counties are also at significant risk, especially in areas where mountains are present.
After concluding what counties were at risk for landslides, scientists then compared their findings with Southern California’s population and income data.
Their comparisons found that lower-income families (who were already more likely to face landslide exposure) are in a more dire situation.
The university researchers discovered that by 2050, landslide exposure among households earning an annual income of $50,000 or less who live in danger zones may triple.
These increased risks are due to climate change.
California has avoided frequent tropical storms thanks to its proximity to cold Pacific Ocean waters. But in recent years, the eastern Pacific’s waters have started to warm up.
Atmospheres with warmer waters usually have more moisture, which leads to higher chances of downpours.
Researchers predict that this could make California’s historically rare tropical storms become more commonplace. This would in turn lead to excessive rainfall, which commonly causes landslides.
The dangers tropical storms can pose in Southern California have not been commonly studied due to their infrequent occurrence.
The most recent one to occur was summer 2023’s Hurricane Hilary. The disastrous storm, which broke records for its rainfall levels, caused damages that cost over $900 million to fix.
Roads were closed, many homes were covered in mud from landslides, and cars were lost to flash floods.
“Hurricane Hilary reminded people that Southern California is not immune to tropical cyclones and related flooding and landslides,” Yuan Wang, assistant professor of Earth system science at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and a senior author of the new study, said.
Currently, grey swan storms most commonly affect residents near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
“Grey swan” storms are hurricanes not predicted by history, but foreseeable by data and “physical” knowledge of the climate.
Because of their frequency, Americans in affected areas have emergency alerts and well-established protocols.
“Black swan” storms, meanwhile, are highly damaging, practically unforeseeable storms; an example of this is Hurricane Hilary.
Californians do not have much experience with tropical storms, so they may be less likely to be prepared—a fact that Wang wants to change, and what helped prompt the study.
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