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Impact of Climate Change
updated: Dec 14, 2011, 1:45 PM

Source: UCSB

When considering the health consequences of climate change, most people imagine prolonged periods of extremely high temperatures and the associated physical outcomes - including mortality. However, according to research conducted by Olivier Deschênes, associate professor of economics at UC Santa Barbara, the effects of climate change on physical health - and related economics - is much broader than that. Deschênes' findings appeared in a recent issue of the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.

In his article "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the U.S.," co-written with Michael Greenstone of M.I.T., Deschênes estimates the economic impacts of climate change on human health, and on expenditures for self-protection, such as air conditioning.

"I wanted to do a large-scale study of the entire continental United States, not just a handful of cities," Deschênes said of his current research. "Too many observations about climate change and its impacts are based on isolated, extreme events, such as the 2003 heat wave in France. Second, I wanted to consider how households might adapt to extreme weather by using more energy to control their indoor climate. Third, I wanted to make predictions about future impacts that were based on state-of the-art climate models."

Exposure to both extreme cold and extreme heat lead to increases in mortality, according to Deschênes, because such exposure stresses the cardiovascular system, which is a primary mechanism for the body to control its core temperature. This suggests that rising temperatures will lead to a decrease in the number of cold-related deaths, and an increase in those related to heat. "Some geographical areas in the United States and elsewhere in the world may, in fact, be healthier as a result of climate change," he said. "As in many of life's circumstances, there will be 'winners' and 'losers' as a result of climate change, at least when we evaluate its impact on human health."

In his recent study of the United States, Deschênes predicts a net increase in mortality of about 2 percent by the end of the century. In other words, the reduction in cold-related mortality is not sufficient to compensate for the larger increase in heat-related mortality. "The second key point is the importance of adaptation, or actions that individuals can take to mitigate the effects of temperature change," he said. "Certain adaptations are available to most of the western world, like access to air conditioning, either at home or in public places. Nevertheless, my research shows that in the United States, adaptation helps reduce the mortality impact of exposure to extreme heat."

As technologies and infrastructures improve around the world, he noted, options for adapting to and mitigating the effects of rising temperatures and changing climate will become available to many more people. "A key aspect of the future debates on the global health implication of climate change is the extent to which availability of these adaptation technologies becomes part of the overall development policy," Deschênes said.

Comments in order of when they were received | (reverse order)

COMMENT 240988	2011-12-14 01:53 PM
Global warmings?! pffft... Yeah right! It's been so friggen cold lately!
COMMENT 240994P	2011-12-14 02:19 PM
I appears that most people do not understand Climate Change, the difference between weather and climate, and also what the seasons mean.
COMMENT 240996	2011-12-14 02:28 PM
Climate change:A 5 BILLION year old phenomenon! No wonder Canada just pulled out of the Kyoto Agreement. The scam is crumbling. But CFL light bulbs will save us all. Bhahahahaha...!!
COMMENT 240997	2011-12-14 02:35 PM
Agreed 240996 Climate change alarmism is the biggest scandal of modern times. The money made off the fear mongering makes the whole Wall Street fiasco look tiny.
COMMENT 241015	2011-12-14 03:28 PM
Just go on and tell yourself that science is wrong if that's what it takes for you to sleep at night... The same people that helped cause the Wall St. fiasco are the very people that want you to believe climate change is not real in order to help their moneyed interests (i.e., the energy industry among others...) stay afloat...
COMMENT 241018	2011-12-14 03:37 PM
Just go on and tell yourself that the junk science is right if that's what it takes to line your pocketbook and feel good and green. The same people you elected and that helped cause the Wall St. fiasco are the very people that want you to believe that climate change is real in order to help their moneyed interests and taxpayer subsidized handouts (i.e., the energy industry among others, Solyndra comes to mind...) stay afloat.
COMMENT 241027	2011-12-14 03:51 PM
@988 I believe scientific consensus, because I believe in science. The scientific consensus is that climate change is real, therefore I believe that climate change is real. Politics has nothing to do with it, you're just creating strawmen to fit your bias.
COMMENT 241036	2011-12-14 04:09 PM
@SY I don't think anyone here is saying our climate doesn't change. What people are calling BS on and junk science is the fear mongering associated with anthropogenic global warming. Politics and profits has very much to do with anthropogenic global warming. As far as scientific consensus it depends on your definition of consensus. It appears the consensus is with those that have something to gain (grants, profits, etc).
COMMENT 241039	2011-12-14 04:12 PM
You don't have to "not believe in science" to see this is just collusion between politicians and scientists who need their careers Funded by taxpayers since there's no private business that would need their services otherwise. Global Warming destroys businesses and transfers manufacturing jobs to 3rd world countries that don't give a hoot about what "consensus" says. We've had high seas before, we need to put our efforts into adapting to weather, not trying to control it....a God does that job for free :)
COMMENT 241044	2011-12-14 04:19 PM
@ SY and 098, you are 180 degree off course. Science, unfortunately, has no consensus of the cause of climate change. There is no consensus at all that man has caused the "wild weather" phenomenon. The earth has cooled and warmed for centuries. Once upon a time, Greenland was green and the vikings grew crops on that island! Then a cool spell came. What is happening is that some researchers have a vested interest in promulgating global warming to continue their careers, politicians can make a fortune hawking carbon credit policies, developing countries can demand money from richer countries for alleged adverse impacts, when the temperature readings since 1998, the true science, show otherwise. Follow the money, my friends, and you will follow the consensus. I say let science prove that global warming really exists and human beings are the real cause -- or not.
COMMENT 241065	2011-12-14 05:28 PM
988, care to elaborate on exactly why it's an alarmist fiasco rather than fact? Because it seems you're in the minority in terms of scientific evaluation/data. I'd love to hear what you have to back up your statement. Intelligent dialogue is always welcome. Do please enlighten me.
COMMENT 241080P	2011-12-14 06:22 PM
Agree with most of 044, and none from the religious nuts. Bottom line, humans have little impact on climate, climate change, weather, et,al. We are only temporary, and not particularly good at figuring stuff out.
COMMENT 241085	2011-12-14 06:41 PM
And then there are the rampant weather modification programs, being carried out globally, namely cloud seeding with aluminum particles. (cheaper than Ag) And massive industrial particulate pollution from China and India are a new, big factor. Our effects on the weather are real though not fully understood. Bon Voyage!
COMMENT 241101	2011-12-14 08:15 PM
988 the whole 'global warming' BS was changed to 'climate change' when it got all cold every year. What a joke. The only 'science,' is that the climate has always changed. In the meantime all these profs, politicians, and business scams suck up tax payer dollars in their lies and deception. Sadly the profs and teachers (often themselves not very bright or educated thinkers) have brainwashed our kids instead of actually teaching them to think and reason for themselves with a variety of input from a variety of sources besides liberal BS. Biased information is the narrow path that has been given to many kids that have now ignorantly grown into adults that are just useful tools.
COMMENT 241102P	2011-12-14 08:24 PM
241101 - Please provide proof that the name was changed from global warming to climate change for that reason. I am confident that you cannot - simply because there is no understanding of why the terms global warming or climate change were used. Or the difference between climate and weather. The deniers make up stuff without any basis or fact. Indeed denying global warming/climate change (both terms of which can be used with justification) is more like religion than science. I have seen no commentary from deniers based on anything close to fact. It is all hypothesis or a favorite interpretation.
COMMENT 241104P	2011-12-14 08:29 PM
Richard Muller, Global Warming Skeptic, Now Agrees Climate Change Is Real WASHINGTON — A prominent physicist and skeptic of global warming spent two years trying to find out if mainstream climate scientists were wrong. In the end, he determined they were right: Temperatures really are rising rapidly. The study of the world's surface temperatures by Richard Muller was partially bankrolled by a foundation connected to global warming deniers. He pursued long-held skeptic theories in analyzing the data. He was spurred to action because of "Climategate," a British scandal involving hacked emails of scientists. Yet he found that the land is 1.6 degrees warmer than in the 1950s. Those numbers from Muller, who works at the University of California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, match those by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA. He said he went even further back, studying readings from Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson. His ultimate finding of a warming world, to be presented at a conference Monday, is no different from what mainstream climate scientists have been saying for decades. Richard Muller
COMMENT 241151	2011-12-15 08:38 AM
Millions of years before there was life on earth the air was filled with carbon. It wasn't until the carboniferous forests evolved and spread over most of the earth's surface that life forms could evolve, because these forests sucked the poisonous carbon out of the air and allowed species to evolve. Whether you believe in global warming or not it cannot be good for the planet if we destroy our carbon eating forests at the rate we are and to be pumping millions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year. If you do not believe that it's doing irreperable damage, just ponder (please don't try this) what would happen if you sat in your garage, the doors and windows closed with the car engine running. You would not last long. We have more and more cars, trucks, planes, factories every year around the globe pumping more and more carbon monoxide into the atmosphere. If its color were pink I don't think there would be any argument.
COMMENT 241158	2011-12-15 08:45 AM
Global warming has to do with our sister sun, a great way to control the people is to tell them they are the cause to a natural phenomenon that Noone has been revealed to the truth of yet. Global warming has been happening on all the planets of our solar system..as the gravity of this celestial object gets closer and closer..eventually leading to a physical pole shift..aka the second coming of jesus christ our savior. (its only every second time that causes a shift of poles..that which the bible has warned us about.) Read revelations for a taste of what is to come in the next year or two. Also look up what happened to the wooly mammoths last time when 40 mammals in the northern hemisphere died as well as a third of all megafauna in the northern hemisphere. Same time as the great flood of Noah and the rising of out oceans 200 feet in several hours! Preparation is key! But they don't want you to know that. Good luck everyone
COMMENT 241210	2011-12-15 10:28 AM
40 different mammals went extinct along with the mammoths (what I meant to say!)
COMMENT 241235	2011-12-15 11:20 AM
I just love how these brainwashed climate extremists try to take away our bags when we shop. They are fascists and try to take away choices in a variety of ways. The new ugly light bulbs they are making us use are more dangerous and toxic than the old. The incandescents are much more beautiful lights. Fascism is never good. Say no to the brainwashed fascists.
COMMENT 241272	2011-12-15 01:16 PM
Studies now exist to define "normal" and predict most change scenarios, so deviations can be attributed to climate change. One climate study predicts a drought and another predicts greater rainfall. When a drought or flood occurs, it can be said to be as predicted by climate change and the opposing study forgotten until the opposite occurs. This is called hedging your bets, not science. The change from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" had to happen for the issue to stay active. Warming is not happening as predicted. The only scientific "proof" I am aware of for man-made Climate Change is computer models. Models are revised regularly since they have yet to predict actual trends, and data is carefully selected to verify the predictions. Anecdotal evidence is not science. Parts of the Earth have warmed recently and CO2 levels have increased, but temperatures have not increased as predicted. I give climate change another 10 years before it is finally declared dead.
COMMENT 241301	2011-12-15 03:01 PM
97% of the world's climate scientists accept the reality of anthrogenic global warming, and no reputable science organization disputes it; this is because of overwhelming evidence supporting it, presented in thousands upon thousands of papers in peer reviewed journals, from surface measurements, satellite measurements, ocean heat measurements, ice core samples, basic physics, etc.. Those denying it, calling it junk science, etc., are not scientifically knowledgeable; they hold these views because they want them to be true, not because the evidence supports them.
COMMENT 241315	2011-12-15 03:54 PM
101 needs to go back to grammar school and learn about fascism vs capitalism! :) Fascism is actually the practice of deciding that people who don't think like you, worship like you or earn like you deserve the same civil rights as you do. Plastic bags do not fall into this category. Frankly, nothing that falls under a capitalistic umbrella does. You have the privilege of shopping at a specific store. It is not a government sanctioned grocery story nor are the bags given out by the government. You have the RIGHT to buy your own bags, plastic or otherwise as long as capitalism sees fit to produce them. See yourself as lucky that you live in the country you do and please educate yourself (and pass the knowledge onto others!) about how our democratic, capitalist society works and how fascism really works.
COMMENT 241343P	2011-12-15 04:48 PM
241272 - what is the source of your "facts"? "Thirteen of the warmest years recorded have occurred within the last decade and a half, the UN's World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday. The year 2011 caps a decade that ties the record as the hottest ever measured, the WMO said in a provisional report on climate trends and extreme weather events, unveiled at UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa. "Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities," WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement, adding that policy makers should take note of the findings. http://news.discovery.com/earth/hottest-decade-global-warming-111129.html I would implore deniers to please check what they are about to post, and back it up with SCIENCE - providing links to their "facts". Thanks.
DEE D	2011-12-15 07:47 PM
Wow. To think we can consume (oxidize) millions of tons of the crust of our planet, thereby altering the composition of its atmosphere and acidifying its oceans without impacting ourselves is nuts, yes?
COMMENT 241417	2011-12-15 07:50 PM
065 when government tells business and citizens they have to quit producing as well as using a certain light bulb because they believe the sky is falling and they tell those same people that they can't use plastic bags or any bags for that matter that except ones that test for very high bacterial levels with overuse they are fascists. At that point neither the citizens nor the companies have a choice. You dear need to look up capitalism and fascism. I have studied both extensively. This is why I know the difference.
COMMENT 241423P	2011-12-15 08:03 PM
241101 - I guess "governments" that tell people to use seat belts, drive on the right side of the road, stop to let ambulances go by, stop at lights and stop signs, keep poisons out of the reach of children, pharmaceutical companies to make child-proof containers - are also "fascist" too? I guess the whole darn world is fascist. The part you miss is that governments are voted in by we the people. Fascism is when corporations tell government what to do, not the other way around.
COMMENT 241637	2011-12-16 03:33 PM
994P, this is 272. I have been down this road too many times. Facts us "deniers" cite are generally deemed invalid using mostly ad hominem arguments (oil company shrill, corporate goon, not "official" climate science, planet hater, idiot, etc). If you are curious about my claims and also wonder why there are so many of us "deniers" then please look for yourself outside the man-made climate chain circle. Find studies and look at the research itself, not the attacks on the researcher. I think you will be as shocked as I was to learn there is far more uncertainty and opposing data than we were all lead to believe.
COMMENT 241646P	2011-12-16 03:51 PM
241272 - I am a scientist, and I have seen nothing that refutes global warming. I once had an email friend who watched the BBC "The Great Global Warming Swindle" and even from a summary of the arguments used in the film, I could immediately refute many of the points from what I know about basic science. Since then, many of the arguments in that film have been debunked. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Global_Warming_S windle I would love to see if anyone on this forum can provide just ONE strong argument against global warming. I would happily review it and respond. Unfortunately, many arguments that have "convinced" people that there is no global warming are bogus.
COMMENT 241771	2011-12-17 09:55 AM
994, 272. OK. The basic idea behind global warming is that man-made emissions will drive the climate beyond normal ranges. 20 years ago we were told of dire, immediate consequences of temperatures rising due to man-made CO2. This was based on climate models. Since then CO2 has undeniably risen, but the corresponding temperature rise hasn't. Temperatures did rise a little, undeniably, and many plots outside the self-validating IPCC crowd even show it leveled off between 1998 and 2003. The models were wrong and quietly revised to match trends. The bottom line is temperature has not correlated to human generated CO2 as predicted. Again, please look for yourself. So, I'd like to know: why should I believe man-made global warming is real? Faith that someday the data will match the predictions?
COMMENT 241829P	2011-12-17 12:45 PM
241771 Effects of Climate Change in Arctic More Extensive Than Expected, Report Finds ScienceDaily (May 4, 2011) — A much reduced covering of snow, shorter winter season and thawing tundra: The effects of climate change in the Arctic are already here. And the changes are taking place significantly faster than previously thought. This is what emerges from a new research report on the Arctic, presented in Copenhagen this week. Margareta Johansson, from Lund University, is one of the researchers behind the report. Climate Change May Happen More Quickly Than Expected ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2011) — As global temperatures continue to rise at an accelerated rate due to deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, natural stores of carbon in the Arctic are cause for serious concern, researchers say. In an article scheduled to be published Dec. 1 in the journal Nature, a survey of 41 international experts led by University of Florida ecologist Edward Schuur shows models created to estimate global warming may have underestimated the magnitude of carbon emissions from permafrost over the next century. Its effect on climate change is projected to be 2.5 times greater than models predicted, partly because of the amount of methane released in permafrost, or frozen soil. Links to scientific reports - not just opinion.
COMMENT 241861P	2011-12-17 03:25 PM
Shock as Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice Releases Deadly Greenhouse Gas Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region. The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years. In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov, of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea-ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change.
COMMENT 241922	2011-12-18 07:33 AM
272 here, with apologies to the Board Nanny (I hope this passes). And so the back and forth continues. I've seen that all before. Here's a physics professor from UC Berkeley, global warming believer, and one of the few on the believer side I think is objective. Here is a 42 minute lecture I think any believer should see. Go to You Tube and search for "Global Warming -- The Current Status: The Science, the Scandal, the Prospects for a Treaty". The 52:14 minute-long video of Robert Muller in 2010 is the one. The same Muller touted above as a recent convert. After this I will read what is posted, but not post myself. I honestly don't have the time to give another thoughtful reply, but wish I did. I appreciate the articles and information. I hope this helps explain us deniers to the believers.
COMMENT 241930P	2011-12-18 08:12 AM
241272 - Just to reiterate, for those who may be confused - it is Richard Muller, not Robert Muller. Richard Muller, Global Warming Skeptic, Now Agrees Climate Change Is Real WASHINGTON — A prominent physicist and skeptic of global warming spent two years trying to find out if mainstream climate scientists were wrong. In the end, he determined they were right: Temperatures really are rising rapidly. The study of the world's surface temperatures by Richard Muller was partially bankrolled by a foundation connected to global warming deniers. He pursued long-held skeptic theories in analyzing the data. He was spurred to action because of "Climategate," a British scandal involving hacked emails of scientists. Link
COMMENT 241964	2011-12-18 09:57 AM
-994P. Oops! I wrote Robert. Dangit. Late night and early morning, not enough time to give this my full attention as I said. Yes, please watch Muller in his own words and then compare that to what was written about him. Subtle differences, but important differences. He even addresses the use of subtle differences in his lecture. And, yes, he is and seems to have always been a believer, just an honest and skeptical one as all scientists should be.

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